[OT] On not being as good at the game as we used to be

[Paul Keating]

In a recent post, Tim Lodge said “I feel I'm not as good at this game as I once was, perhaps because I’m 31 years older than when I started – it must be old age creeping up.”

I got to wondering whether this was rose-tinted nostalgia for the good old days, or whether there was an objective correlative for Tim’s feeling. Tim’s most recent wins were 

• Round 3530 (Dromon) Score 4 (15 players)

• Round 3520 (Broosle): Score 5 (14 players)

• Round 3501 (Ubac): Score 6 (12 players)

Going back 31 years, Tim’s first three wins were

• Round 623 (Gorsedd): Score 7 (26 players)

• Round 638 (Poustie): Score 5 (27 players)

• Round 647 (Naulage): Score 7 (32 players)

That is roughly one win every ten rounds, which has a look of consistency about it. 

It is true that the Tim’s average scores are higher in the early rounds (6.33 in early rounds versus 5.0 in recent ones) but there is an easy explanation for that.

The maximum possible score in a round is directly related to the number of players. In a round with n players, including the dealer, any one player can score at most n points. That is calculated as follows: Suppose there are 20 players. Only 18 players can vote for a given definition, because the dealer cannot vote, and its author cannot vote for it either (and still have the vote counted), and the other 18 players can vote for it only once each. So, its author can earn a maximum of 18 points from votes, with the possible addition of 2 points for a correct guess. 18 + 2 = 20 points maximum from 20 players.

So the maximum possible score declines as the number of players declines.

If we restate Tim’s recent winning scores in terms of percentages of the possible maximum, we get

• Round 3530 (Dromon) Score 4 of a possible 15: 26.66%

• Round 3520 (Broosle): Score 5 of a possible 14: 35.72%

• Round 3501 (Ubac): Score 6 of a possible 12: 50.00%

and the corresponding figures for his earliest rounds are lower:

• Round 623 (Gorsedd): Score 7 of a possible 26: 26.92%

• Round 638 (Poustie): Score 5 of a possible 27: 18.52% 

• Round 647 (Naulage): Score 7 of a possible 32: 27.11%

Now, when one is playing a game for enjoyment, perception is reality, so if Tim feels dissatisfaction with his recent scores, that is up to him, and I’m not claiming to say he’s wrong.

Except about the cause. I suspect it’s not advancing years, but that the game is less fun to play with fewer players.

[Tim Lodge]

Paul

Thanks for the interesting analysis. I wouldn't say I was particularly dissatisfied with my recent scores, it's more that I find it much harder these days to come up with decent defs. I'll keep trying. Incidentally,  I remember a few cases in the past where players exhibited signs of mental decline and then disappeared from the game. Please don't bother to tell me if you notice the same in me - I'd rather fade out in ignorance! At the moment I don't think I'm much worse mentally than I've always been.

‐- Tim L

[Paul Keating]

If the figures had suggested mental decline, you may be very assured I would have kept my peace.

P

[Tim Lodge]

<grin>