Verlander Trade Revisted

[Peter Welch]

I just saw a post about who were some of the Astros' top prospects when the Tigers traded Verlander to them in 2017.

RHP Frances Martes 1st

OF Kyle Tucker 2nd

RHP David Paulino 3rd

RHP Forrest Whitley 4th

OF Derek Fisher 5th

RHP Franklin Perez 6th

OF Teoscar Hernandez 7th

RHP James Hoyt, 8th

OF Daz Cameron 9th

3B-1B JD Davis 10th

OF Yordan Alvarez 14th

IF-OF Ramon Laureano 17th

C Jake Rogers 22nd

LHP Framber Valdez 30th

So the Tigers got the Astros' 6th, 9^th and 22^nd ranked prospects in return for JV. 

I remember at the time Tigers' fans wanted Tucker, but the Astros weren't going to trade Tucker.  

Funny that Daz Cameron was ranked higher than Yordan Alvarez and Jake Rogers was ranked higher than Framber Valdez.

Too bad the Tigers didn't get Valdez, Alvarez and, say, Laureano or Teoscar instead of Perez, Cameron and Rogers.

By the way, the Astros' #3 prospect in 2017, David Paulino, had originally started out in the Tigers' system.  He was traded by the Tigers to the Astros in 2013 as a PBTNL for reliever Jose Veras.  Paulino was 19 at the time. Paulino showed some early promise in the majors but his career was plagued with injuries.

Anyway, the point is that getting the 6th, 9^th and 22^nd ranked prospects from another team for, say, Skubal is probably the best we can expect.

Peter

[Roger King]

Verlander was traded at the second trade deadline (the one that involves waivers) which is at the end of August. It was literally the last possible day, August 31.  So the Astros were getting him for less time that season than the normal trade deadline at the end of July.

But I say “that season” because JV still had two years left on his contract. That’s not the situation with Skubal obviously.  He is just a two month rental. 

So the situations aren’t comparable and I’m not sure we can expect three good prospects for Skubal. 

Roger King
El Presidente
PN Agency – www.pnagency.com
Ethnic Voice Talent –www.ethnicvoicetalent.com
(416) 515-7195

--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Detroit Tigers e-mail list" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to detroit-tiger...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/detroit-tigers/DS0PR19MB7272440A9FC02950FE2A06EB9AC52%40DS0PR19MB7272.namprd19.prod.outlook.com.

[Sean Sweda]

Verlander had multiple years left on his contract and Avila was trying to get out of paying for what he thought was a declining asset.  Of course the Astros knew what they were doing, all it took was some “sticky stuff” and a change of pitch mix to get Verlander back on track.  IIRC they snookered Avila into paying around 30% of Verlander’s salary while he finished in 1st & 2nd place for Cy Young. This trade has always been exhibit one for the prosecution’s case against Avila, and the prospect return was only half the problem.

The Tigers are in a much different situation with Skubal, Harris has a lot more leverage.

Sean

< via mobile >

On Jul 17, 2026, at 10:26 PM, Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com> wrote:

Anyway, the point is that getting the 6th, 9^th and 22^nd ranked prospects from another team for, say, Skubal is probably the best we can expect.

Peter

--

[Jeffrey Withey]

It just goes to show that these prospect ranking lists are completely meaningless. 

Jeff

Get Outlook for iOS

---

From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Sean Sweda <sw...@ibl.org>
Sent: Friday, 17 July 2026 23:17:28
To: Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com>
Cc: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Verlander Trade Revisted

 

[EXTERNAL]

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/detroit-tigers/E618E5C2-932C-41D4-9335-E2864DCB636F%40ibl.org.

[Peter Welch]

I didn't think the return was terrible for Verlander at the time considering the Tigers wanted to dump his salary and everyone knew it.

Perez was a good starter prospect and looked only a couple of years away from the majors but it turned out he had a bum shoulder they could never fix...I still wonder if the Astros knew he was damaged goods. 

The other pitchers in the Astros' top 20 in 2017 never amounted to anything either.  Valdez, who was ranked 30th, turned out better than any of them.

Cameron was ranked above Yordan Alvarez, which is pretty funny in retrospect.  They were both about the same age (20) in A-ball at the time of the trade.  Cameron put up .815 OPS in A-ball in 2017, Alvarez put up .859 OPS in 2017 between low and high-A.  Cameron was a CF and better regarded defensively than Alvarez at the time and had better speed.  Cameron never developed as a hitter with Detroit but Alvarez blossomed into one of the best power hitters in baseball with the Astros.

And Rogers being ranked higher than Valdez at the time is also amusing.  Framber was 23 in 2017 and had played in both high-A and AA that year.  He struggled a bit in AA with a 5.88 ERA.  Rogers was 22 at the time and put up a .817 OPS in A-ball.  Framber didn't really come into his own until he was 25-26.  Now Rogers is catching (sometimes) for Framber.  LOL!

I'm sure Al Avila asked for Tucker and the Astros said "no".  I would love to know if Avila inquired about Alvarez, Valdez, Teoscar or Laureano in the trade negotiations.  Avila settled for Perez, Cameron and Rogers.  I wonder if Avila could have had something like Alvarez, Laureano and Valdez instead?  The Tigers from 2018-2022 might have had a different path if that had been the trade.

Peter

---

From: 'Jeffrey Withey' via Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Friday, July 17, 2026 11:27 PM
To: Sean Sweda <sw...@ibl.org>; Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com>

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/detroit-tigers/PH0PR11MB561190C5710915B29A48999DF2C52%40PH0PR11MB5611.namprd11.prod.outlook.com.

[Peter Welch]

Speaking of Yordan Alvarez, I read he might be on the block at the deadline (probably depends on how the Astros do in the next 2 weeks).  Do the Tigers have anything they could trade for him?  Alvarez is the type of bat the Tigers desperately need.  He has 2 years remaining on his current contract ($26.8 million per season).  He's 29 (30 next June).

The Tigers probably don't have the prospects to give up for Alvarez.  They're not trading Clark or Rainer.  

Peter

---

From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com>
Sent: Saturday, July 18, 2026 1:30 AM
To: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com>

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/detroit-tigers/DS0PR19MB72726970AB36986A0D66013A9AC52%40DS0PR19MB7272.namprd19.prod.outlook.com.

[Paul Meloche]

I hear Skubal might be on the block. lol

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/detroit-tigers/DS0PR19MB727278229CDFAD1B3F8360209AC52%40DS0PR19MB7272.namprd19.prod.outlook.com.

[Michael W]

Probably the real message here is that most of the mainstream prospect rankings are nonsense.  They never look good in hindsight.  Don’t use them to guide your thinking.

Michael 

[Michael W]

>The Tigers probably don't have the prospects to give up 

> for Alvarez.  They're not trading Clark or Rainer. 

This kind of thinking is getting the Tigers in trouble.  They can’t decide what they are optimizing for.  If you really think the Tigers can win this year or next year, then Clark for Alvarez would be a great move to help.  If you don’t believe they are close enough, you should be trading guys like Greene and Carpenter for players who will be ready in 2-3 years.  But, we’re trying to have it both ways, and we’re going to get neither. 

Michael 

[Peter Welch]

Clark and, say, Rainer or Briceno for Alvarez would be a Dombrowski-style move.

Peter

---

From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Michael W <miw...@gmail.com>
Sent: Sunday, July 19, 2026 9:34 AM
To: Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com>

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/detroit-tigers/0f3dcc0b-a7c3-413c-9486-c2cce157111fn%40googlegroups.com.

[Peter Welch]

One of the criticisms of Harris is that he holds onto his prospects too closely and is reluctant to make Dombrowski-style moves.  I'm not saying I agree with that criticism, but you could make that case. 

You don't necessarily want Harris emptying the farm Dombrowski-style, but I think trading a couple of prospect chips for somebody like Alvarez, who is still only 29, is something to consider, especially if you're serious about trying to win both this year and in the next couple of years (Alvarez has 2 more years on his contract).

Peter

---

From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Michael W <miw...@gmail.com>
Sent: Sunday, July 19, 2026 9:34 AM

To: Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com>

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/detroit-tigers/0f3dcc0b-a7c3-413c-9486-c2cce157111fn%40googlegroups.com.

[Cal Lord]

This is why you don’t trad stars at the deadline. Rarely do you get someone who will make a long term difference in the rent a player deals. Keep our guys and then trade or let them go. You aren’t going to get any value and you just get chaff for them.

Cal

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/detroit-tigers/DS0PR19MB727230DF7E7402C655D7E5389AC42%40DS0PR19MB7272.namprd19.prod.outlook.com.

[Roger King]

It is a tough situation to evaluate. The Tigers have been the best team in the league since June 1, coincidentally around the time most of their key players got healthy again. Obviously the team isn’t as bad as they showed in May. That was related to all the injuries.

So Harris has a legitimate argument that the team is still good and the mediocre win-loss record is due to injuries.

But the real trick is evaluating how good.  There are obvious holes, as the September collapse last season showed.  And now there is a ticking clock with Skubal & Mize among others set to be free agents.

Trading those guys for prospects would kind of be an admission of some failure on the part of Harris. He’s the one that said he was setting the team up to be regularly competitive and throwing in the towel on this season after two straight playoff appearances obviously sets the team back.

I still think Harris will do some kind of play it halfway thing that Michael is describing. He’ll try and tweak the roster and maybe hope they still sneak into the playoffs anyway, but he won’t do anything bold to either set the team up for the future or land an obvious top-tier guy to help this season either.

Personally, there are many uncertainties next season and beyond so I would tend to hope he just goes for it this year. What the hell. They were one hit away from going to the ALCS last year. Get one more legitimately good bat and some help in the bullpen and see what happens!

Roger King
El Presidente
PN Agency – www.pnagency.com
Ethnic Voice Talent –www.ethnicvoicetalent.com
(416) 515-7195

On Sun, Jul 19, 2026 at 10:32 AM Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com> wrote:

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/detroit-tigers/DS0PR19MB727230DF7E7402C655D7E5389AC42%40DS0PR19MB7272.namprd19.prod.outlook.com.

[Peter Welch]

Alvarez could be that bat but Harris has shown no proclivity to trade prospects for veterans.  Alvarez might not be available anyway since the Astros currently are in wild card contention and only 4 back in the AL West.  

SS Jeremy Peña is another Astros' player possibly on the block.  Wouldn't mind trading for him.

Peter

Get Outlook for iOS

---

From: Roger King <pnag...@pnagency.com>
Sent: Sunday, 19 July 2026 12:30:44
To: Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com>
Cc: Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com>

[Paul Meloche]

The Tigers prospects currently ranked 6, 9, and 22 are Cris Rodriguez, Malachi Witherspoon, and Trei Cruz. 

Although Skubal of 2026 is IMO a notch above 2017 Verlander, I'd be really disappointed if something like the above was the return in a Skubal deadline deal.  I realize that the the Tigers would be focused more on immediate and 2027 help with a Skubal deal than they were in 2017 with Verlander; that was more for beefing up the farm system for a rebuild.

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/detroit-tigers/PH0PR11MB561190C5710915B29A48999DF2C52%40PH0PR11MB5611.namprd11.prod.outlook.com.

[Peter Welch]

In retrospect, the Astros' list of prospects in 2017 was quite deep even though several of their top pitching prospects in 2017 never worked out.  Their 2017 class produced Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Framber Valdez, Teoscar Hernandez, Ramon Laureano, Jake Rogers, Garrett Stubbs (a light-hitting MLB backup catcher) and Cionel Perez (who had a couple of decent years in the majors as a reliever).  That's a pretty good group of major leaguers who came out of the same farm system.

I wish I had been a fly on the wall in the Verlander trade negotiations with the Astros in 2017.  I'm curious to know if Avila asked for Alvarez, Valdez or Teoscar.  I'm sure he asked for Tucker but was turned down.

Peter

---

From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Paul Meloche <meloc...@gmail.com>
Sent: Monday, July 20, 2026 11:49 AM
To: Jeffrey Withey <jwi...@med.wayne.edu>
Cc: Sean Sweda <sw...@ibl.org>; Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com>; detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com>

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/detroit-tigers/CAM0OySp_LYG6MDk-sLXj%2BWSs_70uP5-tOFHJBH0z1JKuWBpKvg%40mail.gmail.com.

[Peter Welch]

So, for example, if the Dodgers offer their current 6,9 and 22 for Skubal:

Current 6, 9 and 22 for the Dodgers are RHP River Ryan (age 27 in AAA, missed last year after TJS), 1B-OF James Tibbs III (age 23 in AAA) and LHP Sterling Patick (age 21 in high-A).  

Peter

---

From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Paul Meloche <meloc...@gmail.com>
Sent: Monday, July 20, 2026 11:49 AM
To: Jeffrey Withey <jwi...@med.wayne.edu>

Cc: Sean Sweda <sw...@ibl.org>; Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com>; detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com>

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/detroit-tigers/CAM0OySp_LYG6MDk-sLXj%2BWSs_70uP5-tOFHJBH0z1JKuWBpKvg%40mail.gmail.com.

[Paul Meloche]

Harris should IMO jump at that hypothetical deal if it were offered.

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/detroit-tigers/CH3PR19MB7260428074E494C28E06ECAD9AC32%40CH3PR19MB7260.namprd19.prod.outlook.com.

[Paul Meloche]

Might have jumped the gun there. Definitely a deal to consider but not a slam dunk/Harris would have to pull the trigger situation.

[Peter Welch]

That wouldn't be a bad haul.  I'd ask for Sasaki instead of Ryan, but I'd take Ryan (or maybe Sheehan).

Dodgers don't really need a starter so they probably aren't interested in Skubal anyway.

If Skubal does get traded, my money is on the Phillies, Brewers, Yankees, or maybe the Cubs or Mariners.

Peter

---

From: Paul Meloche <meloc...@gmail.com>
Sent: Monday, July 20, 2026 12:47 PM

[Peter Welch]

Possibly the Red Sox as well (especially now that they are surging).

Peter

---

From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com>
Sent: Monday, July 20, 2026 12:58 PM
To: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com>

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/detroit-tigers/CH3PR19MB726090507389968D19338A319AC32%40CH3PR19MB7260.namprd19.prod.outlook.com.

[Peter Welch]

Well, maybe the Dodgers would be interested in Skubal now.  They are shutting down Ohtani as a pitcher and just playing him at DH.

Peter

---

From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com>
Sent: Monday, July 20, 2026 12:58 PM
To: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com>

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/detroit-tigers/CH3PR19MB726090507389968D19338A319AC32%40CH3PR19MB7260.namprd19.prod.outlook.com.