Rumors getting uglier

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Michael W

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Jan 21, 2026, 3:21:05 PM (11 days ago) Jan 21
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Nobody really knows what trade offers the Tigers are or were seeing for Skubal.  But the published rumors have been slowly getting worse and worse.   My take is that as Skubal looks increasingly likely to land his $32M arbitration deal, that makes Skubal less attractive (what does "a year of team control" mean if it costs $32M?) and simultaneously makes the Tigers look more desperate to trade him (they can't really afford even this year's price, and look extremely unlikely to sign him long-term).  

It's still unclear if they will trade him, (perhaps now as a salary dump!), but the window to get a bounty of 4 or 5 good young players and prosects seems to have closed. 

Michael



Roger King

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Jan 21, 2026, 3:26:37 PM (11 days ago) Jan 21
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I haven’t seen any of the rumors and usually don’t pay attention when I do because most of it is just talk and/or a writer with a click bait deadline :-)

But I don’t see how the Tigers can’t afford the $32 million. They were already prepared to pay almost $20 million and have acknowledged that was a starting offer so likely expected to pay more. Plus, they still seem to be in the hunt for at least one more starting pitcher (according to a couple of Tiger beat writers) who probably is going to cost them $10-15 million if they actually do sign someone.

The point being, the fact that they were in the hunt for pitcher in that price range plus the minimum $20 million they planned to pay Skubal tells me they can easily afford the $32 million if he wins in arbitration. I say he stays a Tiger. 


Roger King
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Michael W

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Jan 21, 2026, 4:23:35 PM (11 days ago) Jan 21
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Roger you must have become pretty numb to talking about other people's money if you don't think $12 million is a lot!  Having recently worked for a $3.5B revenue company (likely 10X the Tigers revenue) I can tell you it's pretty hard to find $12 million that isn't in the budget.  Where are you going to get it?  Just for example, if the Tigers were to save the money by laying off front-office staff, that's probably *all of them* including Scott Harris.  

Yes, maybe they have budgeted to spend $10-$15M on another starting pitcher (recognizing that we don't know that for a fact).  That would mean that if Skubal wins arbitration, they will almost certainly have to cancel that plan to cover the difference.

Of course, they could just take $12M less profit.  Estimates are the Tigers had around $30M in operating income last year, so that is a pretty big hit.  That will mean most of the execs won't get their annual bonus, and it will probably trash their multi-year incentives too.  They will be working like hell to beat Boras in the arbitration hearing.

It's real money, period.

I agree with you that they will probably keep Skubal for 2026, but I think it's because, at this point, any trade offer they get would cost them all their credibility with fans.

Michael

Jeffrey Withey

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Jan 21, 2026, 4:29:06 PM (11 days ago) Jan 21
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Owning a sports team is a hobby for billionaires. They have the money to spend if they choose to. If they approach owning a team as purely a money-making operation, they are unlikely to have a successful team. 

Jeff

From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Michael W <miw...@gmail.com>
Sent: Wednesday, January 21, 2026 4:23:35 PM
To: Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Rumors getting uglier
 

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Roger King

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Jan 21, 2026, 4:59:30 PM (11 days ago) Jan 21
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That’s not the argument I was making-whether $12 million is a lot or not.  

I was just doing the math based on the Tigers admitted plans…

They initially offered close to $20 million in arbitration to Skubal. In the follow up press comments, they acknowledged that was a starting offer. They expected some kind of negotiation which would have them paying more than that initial amount.  So let’s say somewhere around $22 million or something is where they thought they’d land (The one report I read said $25 million wasn’t out of the question)

AND they were still making comments to the press that they were looking for another starter, which I think we can assume is a minimum $10 million. I’m basing that on the fact they gave Drew Anderson (who has a total of 44 innings pitched in his career and hasn’t been in MLB since 2021)… $7 million…and they gave an injured Alex Cobb $15 million last year. So I think it’s a reasonable estimate to say $10 million minimum for another experienced starter.

So their original plan was:
Skubal - something more than $20 million
Another starter - $10 mill
That’s around $32 million right there 

If they now say they can’t afford that extra pitcher because of Skubal’s arbitration win, that may be the case… But I’m not pushing back on that. I’m simply saying they were already planning to potentially spend at least another $12 million on pitching.

P.S. I personally think it’s fine if they don’t sign another starter. I think it would end up like a Maeda situation where a veteran is taking innings away from younger pitchers like Melton, Olson etc.  Unless it was Verlander, which would just be good fun :-)


Roger King
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Peter Welch

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Jan 21, 2026, 6:44:02 PM (11 days ago) Jan 21
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It's weird, they lowball Skubal but are willing to spend too much on questionable aging veterans like Maeda and Cobb, and $7 million for Drew Anderson just because he put up good numbers against AA/AAA-level hitters in the Korean league.  
If they sign about-to-be 37-year-old Chris Bassitt for, say, $18+ million, he might be the latest fossil that Harris signs.  Or, of course, if they end up signing Verlander for something like $18+ million, he'll be the ultimate fossil signing.  
 

Peter

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Sent: Wednesday, January 21, 2026 4:59 PM
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Subject: Re: Rumors getting uglier

Peter Welch

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Jan 21, 2026, 6:52:05 PM (11 days ago) Jan 21
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Tigers missed the boat on trading Malloy and Jung 2 years ago when they were still considered decent prospects but now they are practically worthless, and with Skubal about to get $32+ million in his final year with the Tigers, he'll be less attractive as a one-year rental for someone.  The time to trade Skubal was last year, but no way was Harris going to do that given the Tigers being considered contenders.

I suppose we could still trade Skubal at the deadline and extract some value for him in return from a contender during the stretch run (since the other team would only have to pay a couple of months of his salary), but assuming the Tigers are in contention at the deadline this year, they won't be trading Skubal and will try to ride his arm into the World Series.  If the Tigers are having a bad season by July then they should try to get whatever package they can get for Skubal.  It will still be better than a comp round draft pick in 2027.

Peter


From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Michael W <miw...@gmail.com>
Sent: Wednesday, January 21, 2026 3:21 PM
To: Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Rumors getting uglier
 

Nobody really knows what trade offers the Tigers are or were seeing for Skubal.  But the published rumors have been slowly getting worse and worse.   My take is that as Skubal looks increasingly likely to land his $32M arbitration deal, that makes Skubal less attractive (what does "a year of team control" mean if it costs $32M?) and simultaneously makes the Tigers look more desperate to trade him (they can't really afford even this year's price, and look extremely unlikely to sign him long-term).  

It's still unclear if they will trade him, (perhaps now as a salary dump!), but the window to get a bounty of 4 or 5 good young players and prosects seems to have closed. 

Michael



Peter Welch

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Jan 21, 2026, 6:53:54 PM (11 days ago) Jan 21
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If the Tigers' budget is that tight then the Ilitch clan should sell the team.

Peter
Sent: Wednesday, January 21, 2026 4:23 PM

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Subject: Re: Rumors getting uglier
 

David Panian

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Jan 21, 2026, 7:03:14 PM (11 days ago) Jan 21
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The Tigers’ projected payroll for 2026, according to Spotrac, is $156,125,500. They have Skubal’s contract at $22.5 million, but nothing for Gleyber Torres. I suspect that $22.5 million is actually Torres', since that was the qualifying offer he accepted, and Skubal shouldn't have anything yet for 2026.

In 2016, the Tigers’ payroll was $207,891,735. Last year, it was $178,924,844. Both of those figures are from Spotrac. I know the Tigers’ local TV revenue situation is unclear at the moment, but I don’t think paying Skubal $32 million and bumping their payroll up to about $190 million is going to blow their budget.

To me, the biggest challenge if Skubal wins his case is it will further limit the teams that may be able to afford him in a trade without the Tigers throwing in a large chunk of cash or taking on a similarly expensive contract in return. Even if they were to hang on to him to start the season and have things go badly, at 40% or whatever is left of the season on July 31, Skubal would still be owed more than what some potential contenders would be willing to take on. It would basically be the usual high-spending teams that would be interested.

Helpfully, that suggested deal with the Dodgers — Tyler Glasnow, Emmett Sheehan and Zyhir Hope — might still be possible. Coincidentally, Glasnow will make $32.5 million in each of 2026 and 2027 and a team option for $30 million or a player option for $21.56 million in 2028. Maybe Boras is using Glasnow as a comp for Skubal? Or maybe he looked at the Dodgers' payroll in anticipation of a trade and that helped him decide what salary to seek?

The Tigers' best play is probably to see how the season goes. If they're contending, keep Skubal and maybe try to acquire some help to shore up whatever holes emerge. If they're not contending, hope that the Dodgers' starting pitching has suffered its usual rash of injuries and extract whatever prospects they can from LA.

David



Peter Welch

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Jan 21, 2026, 7:08:16 PM (11 days ago) Jan 21
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Yep, assuming Skubal gets his $32+ million this year, the likely suitors for him at the deadline would be the usual big-spending teams.

I would take that rumored Dodgers' offer for Skubal in a heartbeat if I'm Harris.

Peter
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Sent: Wednesday, January 21, 2026 7:02 PM

Peter Welch

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Jan 21, 2026, 7:14:24 PM (11 days ago) Jan 21
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Thank you, Al Avila, for giving Javy Baez $140 million so that they have his contract eating up a chunk of the payroll budget for 6 years, giving them an excuse to be tight with the budget.

Peter
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Sent: Wednesday, January 21, 2026 7:02 PM

Michael W

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Jan 21, 2026, 9:26:40 PM (11 days ago) Jan 21
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> Thank you, Al Avila, for giving Javy Baez $140 million so that they have his contract eating up a chunk of the payroll budget for 6 years,

These kind of errors are serious and have long echoing implications.

Michael

Michael W

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Jan 21, 2026, 9:34:55 PM (11 days ago) Jan 21
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Jeff writes:
> Owning a sports team is a hobby for billionaires. They have the money to spend if they choose to. 
>If they approach owning a team as purely a money-making operation, they are unlikely to have a successful team

That's an interesting perspective.  The conventional wisdom is, "it's a business".

Sure, owning a baseball team probably isn't the most profitable business, but most are decently profitable as far as we know.  Moreover, they make up for their more modest profits with strong capital appreciation.  As far I know, buying a baseball team is a very good financial investment.

I'm curious what leads you to your view, Jeff.

Michael

Peter Welch

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Jan 22, 2026, 1:11:08 AM (11 days ago) Jan 22
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Yep, it's a good investment for when you finally decide to sell the team.  Pro sports franchises appreciate in value tremendously.  You make a killing because there are oodles of billionaires and investment groups who want to buy your team.   MLB franchises also have protections from anti-trust laws (although that doesn't mean much anymore).  That's worth a ton.

I think MLB franchises make plenty of money (yes, some make more than others for various reasons) but plead poverty and do accounting tricks for public and media consumption for negotiating with the MLBPA.


Peter
Sent: Wednesday, January 21, 2026 9:34 PM

Roger King

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Jan 22, 2026, 5:27:50 PM (10 days ago) Jan 22
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To my point below… Article in the Free Press today listing a number of free agent pitchers the Tigers are still looking at signing, most notably Nick Martinez. 

So they are planning to pay Skubal *and* potentially another free agent starter. 

Michael W

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Jan 22, 2026, 10:48:35 PM (10 days ago) Jan 22
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We’ll see.  They may hoping to win the arbitration.  Or planning to dump salary otherwise.

Peter Welch

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Jan 22, 2026, 10:59:09 PM (10 days ago) Jan 22
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Nick Martinez?  He's 35 so fits right in with Harris's obsession with signig fading veteran pitchers.  
What's Michael Lorenzen doing these days?

Peter
Sent: Thursday, January 22, 2026 10:48 PM

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