September performance at the postseason

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David Panian

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Sep 28, 2025, 10:42:39 PM (2 days ago) Sep 28
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I thought this might be of interest, considering how poorly the Tigers played and how hot Cleveland was this past month:


It's a blog post on FanGraphs from 2021 by Jay Jaffe. Basically, how hot or cold a team is going into the postseason doesn't matter.

David

Jeffrey Withey

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Sep 29, 2025, 5:01:44 AM (yesterday) Sep 29
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My biggest concerns are the ongoing offensive problems. The first half of this season was a fluke. And, we will be facing the best pitchers in the playoffs, of course. Success is unlikely scoring 2 or less runs per game regardless of the opponent. I assume Gleyber will be gone after the season and if there are not signings of major offensive talent then Harris should be fired. It is ridiculous that a multi-year playoff team is not being constructed to win now. Would you rather lose in the playoffs multiple years or win a title at least once?

Jeff

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Tanvir Shaikh

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Sep 29, 2025, 5:37:36 AM (yesterday) Sep 29
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On Mon, Sep 29, 2025 at 11:01 AM 'Jeffrey Withey' via Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com> wrote:
My biggest concerns are the ongoing offensive problems. The first half of this season was a fluke.

That's unpossible, I was told that no one outside of Zach McKinstry was overachieving.....
 
if there are not signings of major offensive talent then Harris should be fired. It is ridiculous that a multi-year playoff team is not being constructed to win now. Would you rather lose in the playoffs multiple years or win a title at least once?

I mostly agree, except that I like the state of the hitting talent while Harris been in charge.  I don't suppose we can demote him to head of scouting?  

-Tapu

Peter Welch

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Sep 29, 2025, 8:08:53 AM (yesterday) Sep 29
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Here are the Tigers' pre-All Star Game, post-All Star Game OPS numbers:

Dingler: .719, .796
Torkelson:  .826, .739
Torres: .812, .659
Baez: .752, .528
McKinstry: .836,.672
Keith: .780, .690
Greene, .879, .694
Meadows: .545, .699
Carpenter: .780, .808
Perez: .825, .690
Sweeney: .595, .390
Ibanez: .612, .644
Jones: .957, .928
Rogers: .555, .722
Malloy, .620, 1.069

Baez dropped 224 points...woof!
Sweeney dropped 205 points (and he was bad to begin with)
Greene dropped 185 points
McKinstry dropped 164 points
Torres dropped 153 points
Perez dropped 135 points
Keith dropped 90 points
Tork dropped 87 points

Dingler and Carpenter were our only regulars who improved in the 2nd half.
If you want to count Meadows as a "regular", then he improved as well.
Jones kept his OPS above .900 both halves.
Funny to see that Rogers actually had a decent 2nd half (.722 OPS).

Peter

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Peter Welch

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Sep 29, 2025, 8:17:12 AM (yesterday) Sep 29
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Harris is gambling that McGonigle, Clark, Briceno, Rainer, and other hitting prospects are going to improve the offense in the next 3-4 years.
That's throwing a lot of eggs into one basket.

The problem with this is that Skubal will be gone by the time those guys are in the majors and we have no potential "next Skubal" coming along.  Jobe might end up being good but I don't see him as the "next Skubal".   The Tigers' pitching is going to be a problem after Skubal.

Peter
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Roger King

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Sep 29, 2025, 8:22:58 AM (yesterday) Sep 29
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Seems like the All-Star game was a curse.  All the guys who were selected dropped considerably in the second half.

The guy I’m starting to worry about is Colt Keith because he is locked into that contract and is supposed to be one of the key young hitters. Even when he was in his supposed hot streak this summer, he still wasn’t that good.

Still only 24 years old, but it has now been two full seasons, and we haven’t seen much.  Over 1000 career plate appearances and the OPS is .715. Need more than that out of him.

Roger King
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Peter Welch

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Sep 29, 2025, 8:41:09 AM (yesterday) Sep 29
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Keith has had a couple of hot streaks where it looked like he was figuring some things out and ready to take it to the next level, but then he regresses.  He was ok in July (.765 OPS) and really good in August this season (.817 OPS) but like most of his teammates he struggled in September before getting hurt.
Part of the problem is that Hinch is treating Keith as another platoon player like Carpenter.  Keith only hit .163 vs. lefties this season so maybe he should only start against righties, but as a rookie he hit .305 vs. lefties.  So which is it?  Can he hit lefties or not?

Keith has a career OPS of .715 (100 OPS+) after 2 seasons in the majors at age 24.  That's decent for a 24-year-old in the majors, but he looks more like another Tork than a potential star at this point.  Keith also seems to have defensive limitations.  He isn't very good at 2B and moved back to 3B this season, but he had his issues at 3B.  He also plays some 1B.

I wouldn't give up on Keith, but I'd consider trading him (perhaps as part of some package deal for a younger CF, 3B or some pitching prospects) if the right offer comes along.


Peter


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Jeffrey Withey

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Sep 29, 2025, 8:50:16 AM (yesterday) Sep 29
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I don’t see Jobe as more than a middle if the rotation starter at best. His fastball is too hittable. Definitely not an ace or even close to Skubal level. 

Jeff

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Peter Welch

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Sep 29, 2025, 9:02:29 AM (yesterday) Sep 29
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Baez, McKinstry and Perez definitely were overperforming earlier this season.  Anyone should have expected regression from them.
People were hoping that Baez was returning to his Cubs form, but he's been the same old bad Detroit Baez in the 2nd half.  He did make that season-saving catch the other day so I'll give him credit for that.

Torres might have been overperforming a little bit in the 1st half, but he's tumbled badly in the 2nd half.  He's not doing himself any favors for trying to get a multi-year contract from some other team in the offseason.  He's gone anyway.  The Tigers have other 2B options for next year.

Greene looked like he was actually improving over last year but then hit the skids.  Way too many strikeouts for not enough bang.  Not enough walks. Yes, Greene increased his homer totals but he regressed as a hitter overall.  I guess Riley got into the "chicks dig the longball" philosophy too much.

Carpenter had a very streaky season.  He actually hit a bit better in the 2nd half.  He still doesn't walk enough and he's only a platoon player.  I would definitely field trade offers for Carpenter.

Tork just looks like he's never going to develop into a star.  He's ok, but has too many flaws in his swing and approach.

I thought Dingler would regress as well but he improved.  Dingler might have been the team's stealth offensive and defensive MVP (yes, I know Skubal is the team's overall MVP).

This team needs a lot of offensive help for next year if they want to make a run in Skubal's final year.

Peter
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Peter Welch

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Sep 29, 2025, 9:04:13 AM (yesterday) Sep 29
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I agree.  The Tigers will be hurting for starting pitching after Skubal leaves.  They don't have any pitchers in the minors who look close to being potential #1 starters.  The Tigers are going to have to trade some of their younger hitters for pitching in the next year or so.

Peter
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Peter Welch

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Sep 29, 2025, 9:07:23 AM (yesterday) Sep 29
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Or they trade Skubal for some top pitching prospects.

Peter
Sent: Monday, September 29, 2025 9:04 AM

Roger King

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Sep 29, 2025, 9:27:20 AM (yesterday) Sep 29
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Ah, but other than McKinstry, and obviously Baez who would you say was definitely overachieving in the first half?  There’s a big difference between just having a good first half and overachieving. 

Is Tork’s first half .812 OPS, overachieving?  I mean, certainly compared to his season last year, but do we really think he’s not capable of that? He now has two 30+ HR seasons and was the consensus number one overall pick in the draft. So I don’t call that overachieving. I call it returning to about what we’d expect. You could actually make an argument it’s underachieving given his number one status :-)

Greene obviously has his flaws, but he’s a two-time All-Star who is one of the better young hitters in the league. 

Torres at .812?  His career OPS is .770 so I guess someone could make the argument it was a slight overachievement in the first half but hardly “no way he can keep this up” territory. 

Keith at .780?   I hope that’s not overachieving because the Tigers signed him to a 7-year deal and he was one of the best hitting prospects in MLB when he came up.

As Peter‘s list shows, guys like Dingler and Carpenter actually improved from the first half.

We also have to remember the great second half they had last season. I suspect the true Tigers team is somewhere in between last year second half/this year first half…and the 2 terrible losing stretches we had to endure this season.  

Harris & his team have a lot to sort out but of course, let’s see what happens in the playoffs first!

Roger King
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Roger King

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Sep 29, 2025, 9:34:53 AM (yesterday) Sep 29
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Skubal is a once in a generation pitcher. Obviously they’re not going to easily replace him.

In my view, it’s way too early to evaluate Jobe or even how guys like Olson or Melton are going to develop.

There is zero chance Skubal gets traded in the off-season.  He is likely to win his second straight Cy Young and the Tigers will probably be favored to win the Central next season. 

And again, let’s see what happens in the playoffs. Obviously an early exit will mean more roster retooling than less, but if the Tigers surprise and go deep, everyone may look at the roster differently.



Roger King
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Peter Welch

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Sep 29, 2025, 11:45:05 AM (yesterday) Sep 29
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Perez definitely was overachieving.  He was above .800 OPS.  I like Perez as a backup OF, but he's not an .800+ OPS hitter.  
He's been horrible in September, though.  No way should he be batting 3rd. 

Tork has never overachieved.  He's just about an average 1B.  He is what he is.  He's not great, but he's adequate.  
Yes, he's a disappointment for being a #1 overall pick, but he's ok for now.  He's 26 so there's still a chance he can improve a bit next year.

Torres was having one of the best seasons of his career in the 1st half, but he's only finished at .800 OPS overall once since 2019 and he was only .709 OPS last year.  So he's having pretty much a standard Torres season.  I'd re-sign him on a 2-year deal, but anything more than that forget it, but he's going to want a 4 or 5-year deal.  He'll be 29 in December.
Torres melted down playing in the New York fishbowl.  Yankees' fans trashed him.  You'd think he'd like to stay in a lower-profile market like Detroit, but I can see him signing with some big market team next year.  Money talks.

Peter

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Paul Meloche

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Sep 29, 2025, 12:36:12 PM (yesterday) Sep 29
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I'd only be interested in signing Torres if he wouldn't be blocking Keith/McGonigle and if it was a one or two year deal with similar money to what he got this season.

Peter Welch

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Sep 29, 2025, 1:48:48 PM (yesterday) Sep 29
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Plus Max Anderson and Hau-Yu Lee, although they’ve been playing some 3B as well.

I think the Tigers feel they have enough options at 2B for next year they won’t need to re-sign Torres.  They might make him a qualifying offer, which he’ll probably reject.

I really hope McGonigle can stay at SS.

Peter


On Sep 29, 2025, at 12:36 PM, Paul Meloche <meloc...@gmail.com> wrote:



Roger King

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Sep 29, 2025, 5:36:00 PM (23 hours ago) Sep 29
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On Mon, Sep 29, 2025 at 8:17 AM Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Harris is gambling that McGonigle, Clark, Briceno, Rainer, and other hitting prospects are going to improve the offense in the next 3-4 years.
That's throwing a lot of eggs into one basket.

***I was thinking about the "win now" idea vs playing for the future.  People usually talk about winning now when it's a veteran team like the 1987 Tigers.  Yes, trade a prospect like Smoltz for Doyle Alexander who can help you win now...because the team is aging and you need to take advantage while you still can.  

But it's an odd concept to have a young team and think, let's postpone the winning for later.  If your young team has gotten better earlier than expected, I think you should definitely try to maximize it.  It's not just that prospects don't always pan out as Peter says above...or they take longer than you think (hello Colt Keith!) but the elephant in the room is - *no team wins very often!*  

There hasn't been a repeat World Series winner in 25 years. 

The Los Angeles Dodgers have been in 4 World Series the last 7 years and have managed to win twice but one was the shortened pandemic season of 2020.  It barely counts :-). The other was last year of course which was hugely helped by signing the best player in the world to a massive contract.  They are not really an example of building a young homegrown team.

The Yankees have made the postseason 15 years in a row but haven't won a single World Series in that time.  They've been in 4.  

Besides the Dodgers, we've had some non-consecutive repeat winners in the last 20 years like San Fran, St Louis, Houston & Boston but virtually all were 4 or 5 years apart.  
And we've had just as many teams win once and then have little playoff success after that.  
Kansas City won in 2015 and haven't been in the ALCS since.
The Cubs won the following year and haven't really come close to getting back.  They beat Cleveland who also haven't been back.  
The Nationals won in 2019 and haven't even made the playoffs since.
Texas won in 2023 and have now missed the playoffs 2 years in a row.

So I think the answer is....always try to win now!  That doesn't mean make stupid trades of course but playing it cautious is unlikely to generate huge rewards. And endlessly building a young team that will be consistently competitive year after year might work but competitive isn't the same as actually winning.    

Michael Borshuk

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Sep 29, 2025, 6:14:00 PM (23 hours ago) Sep 29
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Roger summed my frustration with the Harris approach perfectly. I wish we would be bold a la Dombrowski (who had more money to work with, I know) instead of living in this fantasy that at some point in the future we will finally have everything in place to compete for a WS for 5-10 years straight. 

If you have a playoff team, go bigger, win now. 

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Tapu Shaikh

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Sep 29, 2025, 7:44:49 PM (21 hours ago) Sep 29
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On 9/29/25 15:27, Roger King wrote:
Ah, but other than McKinstry, and obviously Baez who would you say was definitely overachieving in the first half? 

In the order from Peter's recent post:

- Torkelson
- Torres (medium)
- Keith (slightly)
- Greene
- Perez

In June, I included Dingler too, and was very wrong.  He was even better in the second half. 

So, of our 9 hitters with the most ABs, Kerry Carpenter is the only one who hit around career norms.

There’s a big difference between just having a good first half and overachieving.

I agree.  However, when you've been mediocre, there's a lot of overlap between "good" and "overachieving." 

Is Tork’s first half .812 OPS, overachieving?  I mean, certainly compared to his season last year

Not only last year.  Torkelson had three years' of major-league data, and 2 more years in the upper minors, showing him to be a low-average slugger.

but do we really think he’s not capable of that?

I'm skeptical, but would like to be proven wrong.

He now has two 30+ HR seasons

...culminating in a lifetime OPS of 722 and an OPS+ of 101.  For comparison, Rob Deer had a lifetime OPS of 766 and an OPS+ of 108.

and was the consensus number one overall pick in the draft. So I don’t call that overachieving.

I cynically think you're going to be evasive when it comes to saying what you mean by "overachieving."  What I mean when I say it is that the player significantly exceeded expectations.  And by "significant," my subjective estimate is that a difference of 30 OPS points or less is not significant in a half-season sample size, and 50 or more points is significant, with some gray area in between.  Furthermore, I'd say that if a player is overachieving, they're likely to revert to the mean in a larger sample size, which is what happened for 7/8 of the guys who I said had been overachieving.

I call it returning to about what we’d expect. You could actually make an argument it’s underachieving given his number one status :-)
At some point, after some number of years of underachievement, I would think that one has to downgrade one's expectations.

Greene obviously has his flaws, but he’s a two-time All-Star who is one of the better young hitters in the league.
What does this mean with regard to overachievment?  Do two All-Star appearances at a young age mean that the player can't have a fluky hot streak?  I think he's good, but not 880 OPS good, not yet anyway.

Torres at .812?  His career OPS is .770 so I guess someone could make the argument it was a slight overachievement in the first half but hardly “no way he can keep this up” territory.
Sure.

We also have to remember the great second half they had last season. I suspect the true Tigers team is somewhere in between last year second half/this year first half…and the 2 terrible losing stretches we had to endure this season. 

It seems like cherry-picking if you're including the good 2nd half of 2024 but not the mediocre 1st half.  And the 2 terrible losing stretches this year is an undersell; the team's 28-41 finish covered almost half the season.  I agree though that the reality lies somewhere in between, but there's a giant chasm between how this team plays when it's hot vs.cold.

-Tapu


Peter Welch

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Sep 29, 2025, 8:55:18 PM (20 hours ago) Sep 29
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The late-70s/early-80s Tigers had an amazing core of young players who came up through the farm system, but even they had to make some trades and sign some FAs to build their eventual World Series championship team.  

Chet Lemon, who was a key part of the 1984 Tigers, was acquired for former Tigers' #1 pick Steve Kemp, who was a good player with the Tigers.
Willie Hernandez, who was the Tigers' star closer in 1984, was acquired from the Phillies in a deal involving OF Glenn Wilson, who was a decent OF prospect who came up through the Tigers' system.
Darrell Evans was signed as FA in 1984 (although ironically Evans had better seasons with the Tigers after 1984).

The 2006-2014 Tigers also were built on trading prospects and players who came up through the farm system as well as some free agent signings (e.g., Pudge, Ordonez, T. Hunter, V-Mart, etc.)

Miggy Cabrera, who was one of our all-time greatest hitters and helped us get into the post-season several times was acquired from the Marlins for a couple of top prospects (at the time).  
Max Scherzer was acquired in a 3-way trade that involved Curtis Granderson, who came up through the Tigers' system and had established himself as one of the best CF in baseball.
Anibal Sanchez was acquired in a deal that involved Jacob Turner, who was a #1 draft pick by the Tigers.
David Price was acquired for Willy Adames and Drew Smyly, who both came up through the Tigers' system. 

I think Harris will need to trade some prospects and other younger players, and/or sign a couple of good free agents eventually. 

Peter
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Subject: Re: "Win now" (was: September performance at the postseason)
 

Peter Welch

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Sep 29, 2025, 9:18:59 PM (20 hours ago) Sep 29
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Dombrowski would probably trade Clark, Briceno, Rainer and Hamm for something like Junior Caminero and Taj Bradley.
Or Clark, Briceno, Rainer and Hamm and some other pitching prospect for Nick Kurtz and Lawrence Butler.

Peter
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Subject: Re: "Win now" (was: September performance at the postseason)

Roger King

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7:21 AM (10 hours ago) 7:21 AM
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Comments:

"I cynically think you're going to be evasive when it comes to saying what you mean by "overachieving."

My definition: a player who is performing at a much higher level than what you would expect, based on career norms.  Or if a young player without a long track record, what you would expect based on minor league numbers, prospect rankings etc.  

Greene:
In 2024, Riley Greene at 23 years of age (for most of the season) was 12th in the AL in OPS, 13th in SLG, 9th in WAR.  He was injured for a stretch last year so didn't rank among the HR leaders as he has this season. I am not sure exactly where he ranked leading up to the all-star break this year but probably slightly higher in all those categories listed.  In my view, that seemed believable/consistent with the previous year and his potential, having been regarded as one of the top hitting prospects in MLB at the time of his debut.

In the end, Greene (having just turned 25 this past weekend) finished with a .806 OPS.  Obviously not very close to where he was earlier in the season but for what it's worth, only 23 players in the AL had an OPS .800 or higher.  
He was 12th in the league in SLG, 8th in Total Bases, tied for 15th in doubles, 5th in HR's and (for what it's worth) 4th in RBI's.  He clearly needs to make some adjustments at the plate (will read the article Peter posted later) but I think it's fair to say he should still be considered one of the better young hitters in the league.  

Torkelson:
"Torkelson had three years' of major-league data, and 2 more years in the upper minors, showing him to be a low-average slugger."

Sure, but he wasn't over-achieving on batting average.  Tork hit .213 in April, .237 in May, .207 in June and .269 in July. 
You can have a .812 OPS (his first half number Peter posted) and be as you describe him - a low average slugger.  He finished at .789 so within striking distance of his first half.

I don't know that there's a huge debate about Keith.  You thought a player the Tigers signed to a 7 year-deal because he was ranked as one of the top hitting prospects in all of MLB...and who has a career minor league OPS of .894...was "slightly overachieving" with a .780 OPS in the first half of his second season?  Maybe someone might argue it's about what we'd expect...but overachieving?  I was hoping for better than that personally!  Hopefully, he'll get there.  

I'll give you Perez overachieving though he only had 130 AB's before the all-star break.  He didn't even join the major league roster until the last 4 games of May.

Of course we could go back & forth on each guy but the overview for me was I looked at the roster and couldn't find many guys in the Baez category where you'd obviously go, that's not going to last.  

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