September performance at the postseason

[David Panian]

I thought this might be of interest, considering how poorly the Tigers played and how hot Cleveland was this past month:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cardinals-impressive-winning-streak-doesnt-guarantee-october-success/

It's a blog post on FanGraphs from 2021 by Jay Jaffe. Basically, how hot or cold a team is going into the postseason doesn't matter.

David

[Jeffrey Withey]

My biggest concerns are the ongoing offensive problems. The first half of this season was a fluke. And, we will be facing the best pitchers in the playoffs, of course. Success is unlikely scoring 2 or less runs per game regardless of the opponent. I assume Gleyber will be gone after the season and if there are not signings of major offensive talent then Harris should be fired. It is ridiculous that a multi-year playoff team is not being constructed to win now. Would you rather lose in the playoffs multiple years or win a title at least once?

Jeff

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From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of David Panian <dpa...@gmail.com>
Sent: Monday, September 29, 2025 4:42:24 AM
To: Tigers List <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: September performance at the postseason

 

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[Tanvir Shaikh]

On Mon, Sep 29, 2025 at 11:01 AM 'Jeffrey Withey' via Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com> wrote:

My biggest concerns are the ongoing offensive problems. The first half of this season was a fluke.

That's unpossible, I was told that no one outside of Zach McKinstry was overachieving.....

 

if there are not signings of major offensive talent then Harris should be fired. It is ridiculous that a multi-year playoff team is not being constructed to win now. Would you rather lose in the playoffs multiple years or win a title at least once?

I mostly agree, except that I like the state of the hitting talent while Harris been in charge.  I don't suppose we can demote him to head of scouting?  

-Tapu

[Peter Welch]

Here are the Tigers' pre-All Star Game, post-All Star Game OPS numbers:

Dingler: .719, .796

Torkelson:  .826, .739

Torres: .812, .659

Baez: .752, .528

McKinstry: .836,.672

Keith: .780, .690

Greene, .879, .694

Meadows: .545, .699

Carpenter: .780, .808

Perez: .825, .690

Sweeney: .595, .390

Ibanez: .612, .644

Jones: .957, .928

Rogers: .555, .722

Malloy, .620, 1.069

Baez dropped 224 points...woof!

Sweeney dropped 205 points (and he was bad to begin with)

Greene dropped 185 points

McKinstry dropped 164 points

Torres dropped 153 points

Perez dropped 135 points

Keith dropped 90 points

Tork dropped 87 points

Dingler and Carpenter were our only regulars who improved in the 2^nd half.

If you want to count Meadows as a "regular", then he improved as well.

Jones kept his OPS above .900 both halves.

Funny to see that Rogers actually had a decent 2^nd half (.722 OPS).

Peter

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From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Tanvir Shaikh <taput...@gmail.com>
Sent: Monday, September 29, 2025 5:37 AM
To: Tigers List <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: September performance at the postseason

 

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[Peter Welch]

Harris is gambling that McGonigle, Clark, Briceno, Rainer, and other hitting prospects are going to improve the offense in the next 3-4 years.

That's throwing a lot of eggs into one basket.

The problem with this is that Skubal will be gone by the time those guys are in the majors and we have no potential "next Skubal" coming along.  Jobe might end up being good but I don't see him as the "next Skubal".   The Tigers' pitching is going to be a problem after Skubal.

Peter

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From: 'Jeffrey Withey' via Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Monday, September 29, 2025 5:00 AM
To: David Panian <dpa...@gmail.com>; Tigers List <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: September performance at the postseason

 

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[Roger King]

Seems like the All-Star game was a curse.  All the guys who were selected dropped considerably in the second half.

The guy I’m starting to worry about is Colt Keith because he is locked into that contract and is supposed to be one of the key young hitters. Even when he was in his supposed hot streak this summer, he still wasn’t that good.

Still only 24 years old, but it has now been two full seasons, and we haven’t seen much.  Over 1000 career plate appearances and the OPS is .715. Need more than that out of him.

Roger King
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[Peter Welch]

Keith has had a couple of hot streaks where it looked like he was figuring some things out and ready to take it to the next level, but then he regresses.  He was ok in July (.765 OPS) and really good in August this season (.817 OPS) but like most of his teammates he struggled in September before getting hurt.

Part of the problem is that Hinch is treating Keith as another platoon player like Carpenter.  Keith only hit .163 vs. lefties this season so maybe he should only start against righties, but as a rookie he hit .305 vs. lefties.  So which is it?  Can he hit lefties or not?

Keith has a career OPS of .715 (100 OPS+) after 2 seasons in the majors at age 24.  That's decent for a 24-year-old in the majors, but he looks more like another Tork than a potential star at this point.  Keith also seems to have defensive limitations.  He isn't very good at 2B and moved back to 3B this season, but he had his issues at 3B.  He also plays some 1B.

I wouldn't give up on Keith, but I'd consider trading him (perhaps as part of some package deal for a younger CF, 3B or some pitching prospects) if the right offer comes along.

Peter

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From: Roger King <pnag...@pnagency.com>
Sent: Monday, September 29, 2025 8:22 AM
To: Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com>
Cc: Tigers List <detroit...@googlegroups.com>