2011 AL Central Preview: Minnesota Twins

[Joseph New]

If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. That old adage sums up the feeling of Minnesota Twins fans this off season. Unlike the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox the Twins did not bring in a big name free agent to help their offense. Unlike the Tigers and White Sox the Twins didn’t spend a lot of money to upgrade their bullpen. But unlike Detroit and Chicago the Twins have won the AL Central Division two years in a row and they fully expect to do it again in 2011.

Did the Twins need to make any off season changes? After all they led the division in runs scored and team ERA in 2010. They also made the fewest errors of any team and allowed the least unearned runs. That added up to 94 wins and their second consecutive AL Central championship. Still Minnesota did make some changes. Second baseman Orlando Hudson (.268, 7 HR, 38 RBI) signed with San Diego as a free agent. And shortstop J. J. Hardy (.268, 6 HR, 38 RBI) was traded to Baltimore. In their place in 2011 the Twins will have Tsuyoshi Nishioka who was signed out of Japan after winning the batting title in the Japanese Western League and veteran middle infielder Alexi Casilla. Casilla hit .276 with one homerun and 20 RBI in 152 at bats in 2010 for Minnesota. Nishioka hit .346 with a .423 OBP, 11 homeruns and 59 RBI in Japan in 2010 and some observers feel he could be the next Ichiro.

There were big changes in the Minnesota bullpen which had the lowest ERA in the Central Division in 2010. Matt Guerrier (3.17 ERA, 23 holds) signed with the LA Dodgers, Jesse Crain (3.04 ERA, 21 holds) signed with Chicago, Jon Rauch (3.12 ERA, 21 saves) signed with the Toronto Blue Jays and Brian Fuentes (0.52 ERA in 9 games) signed with the Oakland A’s. Minnesota will try to patch up their bullpen mostly from within the organization. Matt Capps finished 2010 as the Twins closer appearing in 27 games and posting a 2.00 ERA and 16 saves. He returns and will be the primary set up man in 2011. Joe Nathan, who missed all of 2010 due to Tommy John surgery, will be back to assume the closer role. Situational left hander Jose Mijares (3.31 ERA, 9 holds) also returns to the Twins pen. Minnesota will try to find good young arms during spring training to fill the four remaining spots in the pen. Possible candidates include veteran Pat Neshek (3.05 career ERA) who has pitched in just 11 games since 2008 due to surgery, rule 5 draftee Scott Diamond, lefty Glen Perkins, Alex Burnett, Jeff Manship, Rob Delaney, Anthony Slama and Jim Hoey. The Twins also might consider moving left hander Brian Duensing back to the pen. Duensing began the 2010 season in relief going 3-1 with a 1.67 ERA in 39 games before moving into the starting rotation and going 7-2 in 12 starts.

The Twins return the bulk of an offense that was the best in their division in 2010. The projected lineup for 2011 is Denard Span (.264, .331 OBP) in center field, Tsuyoshi Nishioka at second base or shortstop, Joe Mauer (.327, .869 OPS) at catcher, Justin Morneau (.345, 18 HR, 1.055 OPS) returns at first base after missing half of 2010 with a concussion, Michael Cuddyer (.271, 14 HR, .753 OPS) in right field, either Jason Kubel (.249, 21 HR) or Jim Thome (.283, 25 HR) at DH, Delmon Young (.298, .826 OPS, 112 RBI) in left field, Danny Valencia (.311, .799 OPS) at third base and Alexi Casilla at shortstop or second base. It’s a formidable lineup and the Twins should have little trouble scoring runs in 2011.

Minnesota also brings back all of it’s starting pitchers from 2010. Led by left hander Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62) and right hander Carl Pavano (17-11 3.75) the rotation also includes Brian Duensing (10-3 2.62), Scott Baker (12-9 4.49) and Nick Blackburn (10-12 5.42). Kevin Slowey (13-6 4.45) is also a candidate for the rotation especially if the Twins decide to move Duensing back into the bullpen.

The Twins bullpen played a large role in their success in 2010. And it is hard to say what the affect will be of their free agent losses during the off season. But anyone who has watched the Twins over the last decade knows it would be foolish to count them out of the AL Central Division race. Minnesota usually finds a way to make up for players lost due to injury or off season defection. They have won the division two years in a row and have been in the post season in 6 of the past 9 years. They are the champs and until someone beats them they will remain the champs.