Riley Greene and the Beginning of the End

[Michael W]

March 31st, 2022 is opening day for the Tigers, and many people think Riley Greene will make his major league debut that day.  He’ll be 21 years old.   Predictions about the future are fraught with difficulty, but Greene looks as likely as any recent Tigers’ prospect to have a long and productive career – more likely than any, I would say.  If we take an optimistic view (perhaps the most optimistic view), then we might imagine the following sequence:

Greene quickly earns a spot in the starting lineup and cements himself as a fixture in the Tigers’ outfield.  After a few years the Tigers consider him crucial to their future and sign him to a long-term contract.  Greene continues to produce, leading the Tigers to success, and becomes a fan favorite.  As the contract comes within a few years of its end, the Tigers extend it out to the limit of Greene’s likely career.  Greene plays 17 years in the majors retiring just days after his 39th birthday, September 28th.  After waiting the required 10 years, Greene appears on the Hall of Fame ballot.  Not quite a first-ballot type, Greene waits patiently until his third year on the ballot, and receives sufficient votes.  Accordingly, in July of 2050, Riley Greene is inducted into the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame.

A question to reflect on is:  how many of us will be alive to see that?  Will Riley Greene's March be the beginning of the end?

Best,

Michael

[Mark Pattison]

I've got a slight chance. But it'll be slightly better because a player need be retired only FIVE years to appear on the ballot. He can stay on the ballot for TEN years.

Mark Pattison

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[Jeffrey Withey]

I turn 82 in 2050 so there's a reasonable chance. 

-Jeff

Sent from my iPhone

On Oct 20, 2021, at 9:10 PM, 'Mark Pattison' via Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com> wrote:



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[Sean Sweda]

On Oct 20, 2021, at 8:54 PM, Michael W <miw...@gmail.com> wrote:

> March 31st, 2022 is opening day for the Tigers, and many people think
> Riley Greene will make his major league debut that day.

I'd put money on Greene being in Toledo on that date, either because the
Tigers are screwing him on service time or because there are no MLB games
being played because of a lockout.

Sean

[Cal Lord]

Greene reminds me a lot of Christin Stewart. He is going to be a big star in a couple of years.

Cal

Sent from my iPhone

> On Oct 20, 2021, at 10:27 PM, Sean Sweda <sw...@ibl.org> wrote:

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[Roger King]

Can you point to an example of where the Tigers have “screwed” someone recently on service time? They brought up a whole bunch of rookies in the shortened 2020 season where if service time was a big issue, they had a great excuse for waiting. Other players made their debuts at various times this season including Matt Manning whom I think most would agree wasn’t near ready, or at least his recent minor-league performance at that point didn’t warrant a call up.

Who is it the Tigers have held back just because of service time? 

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[Sean Sweda]

None of the players you list below were

on the MLB opening day roster of their debut season.  All of them were called up after it was no longer possible to achieve a full year of service time (172 days, pro-rated in 2020) during their debut season. There’s no reason to believe Greene will be treated any differently.

Sean

< via mobile >

On Oct 21, 2021, at 7:13 AM, Roger King <pnag...@pnagency.com> wrote:



[Peter Welch]

Exactly, the Tigers play the service time game just like all the other teams.

Peter 

On Oct 21, 2021, at 10:55 AM, Sean Sweda <sw...@ibl.org> wrote:

 None of the players you list below were

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[Michael W]

Greene is going to be a very special player.  He's already a good player and he's still only 22. 

Let's hope his two injuries in two years is a coincidence and not a trend.

Michael

[Michael W]

In July 2023 I wrote:

>Greene is going to be a very special player.  

Now I want to say that about Colt Keith.  He’s going to be a very good player.  That long term contract the Tigers signed him to is going to turn out very well.

Michael

[Peter Welch]

Yep, the moral of the story is to be patient with your top young hitting prospects.  I think on average it takes longer for young hitting prospects to adjust to the majors than young pitchers.  Keith seems to be adjusting now and is approaching his minor league numbers.  Tork seems to have finally adjusted.  It took about a year for Greene to adjust (he was ok as a rookie, but has improved massively since then).

Don't give up on a good hitting prospect if he has struggles for a couple of years. 

Peter

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From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Michael W <miw...@gmail.com>
Sent: Tuesday, July 8, 2025 11:24 PM
To: Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Riley Greene and the Beginning of the End

 

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[Roger King]

Keith will join Riley Greene next month in just being 24 years old too. Then Riley leaps ahead of him to 25 in late September :-)

Baez and Kahnle are the only guys on the current 26 man roster who are over 30 and only McKinstry, Vest & Rogers are even 30.   Hard not to be optimistic that this is just the beginning of a long competitive run.

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