Carp Bomb

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Jason Rice

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Oct 10, 2025, 9:43:03 PMOct 10
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Javy takes the 1st pitch of the 6th and smacks a double. Seattle goes to the pen and Kerry takes the 2nd pitch he sees to right center field seats.

2-1 Tigers top 6th

Jason Rice

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Oct 10, 2025, 9:45:03 PMOct 10
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On Friday, October 10, 2025 at 09:43:04 p.m. EDT, 'Jason Rice' via Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com> wrote:


Javy takes the 1st pitch of the 6th and smacks a double. Seattle goes to the pen and Kerry takes the 2nd pitch he sees to right center field seats.

2-1 Tigers top 6th

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Paul Meloche

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Oct 10, 2025, 9:46:40 PMOct 10
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Then Torres and Greene with one-pitch outs and Dan Wilson wants a righty to face Tork. 2-1 Tigers, two outs in the 6th. 

Paul M.

On Oct 10, 2025, at 6:45 PM, 'Jason Rice' via Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com> wrote:



Roger King

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Oct 10, 2025, 9:47:24 PMOct 10
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Skubal at 85 pitches.  Obviously, he’ll be out for the 6th to try to hold the lead but here we go again after that…Will Hinch let his ace stay in there beyond 100 pitches?



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On Fri, Oct 10, 2025 at 9:43 PM 'Jason Rice' via Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com> wrote:
Javy takes the 1st pitch of the 6th and smacks a double. Seattle goes to the pen and Kerry takes the 2nd pitch he sees to right center field seats.

2-1 Tigers top 6th

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Jason Rice

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Oct 10, 2025, 9:58:48 PMOct 10
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99 pitches and 13 K's through 6. I doubt he comes back out.

Peter Welch

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Oct 10, 2025, 10:07:38 PMOct 10
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Superb outing by Skubal.  Finnegan in to start the bottom of the 7th.  Tigers hit the ball hard in the top of the 7th with nothing to show for it.  They are hanging on with a 2-1 lead.

Peter
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Roger King

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Oct 10, 2025, 10:13:41 PMOct 10
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Finnegan hasn’t been great but he has 2 outs with a runner on first. Why isn’t AJ bringing in Holton to pitch to Naylor?




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Smith, Bradley

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Oct 10, 2025, 10:31:23 PMOct 10
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I would have left Skubal in until either he refused to go out, or his arm fell off, whichever came second. He’s your ace. He’s mowing them down. If you lose this game, you haven’t saved him for anything.

Btw, this is why Jack Morris is in the Hall.

Brad Smith
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Peter Welch

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Oct 10, 2025, 10:36:18 PMOct 10
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Hardly anyone lets the ace go past 7 innings anymore.  

Peter
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Peter Welch

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Oct 10, 2025, 10:38:46 PMOct 10
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Or 6 innings.

Peter
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Brad Smith

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Oct 10, 2025, 10:39:53 PMOct 10
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Yup, and normally I would not. But this is it. Look, in 1968 hardly anyone started on 2 days rest. In 1991, hardly anyone left their ace in to pitch the 10th inning. 

Is no one aware of the stakes? Is no one prepared to do the extraordinary? At least when the season ends, we’ll know we only did what everyone else does.

Brad Smith

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David Panian

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Oct 10, 2025, 10:44:15 PMOct 10
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Agreed. That's what aces do. It doesn't matter what era it is. JV threw 122 pitches in his Game 5 complete game win over Oakland in the 2012 ALDS. Then he threw 111 pitches in eight innings to win game five of the 2013 ALDS against Oakland. The Tigers' bullpens then were weak, and Leyland wasn't going to use the relievers unless something catastrophic happened. Hinch could learn something from that.

David


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Roger King

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Oct 11, 2025, 9:04:27 AMOct 11
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Hinch on Skubal “After the 5th I checked in on him to see how he was doing & we both knew he had 1 left & he emptied his tank & obviously was emotional coming off the mound. I think that signals where we were in the game and he gave us everything he could-it was an easy decision.”

Above is just interesting I would say. Certainly, Lolich or Morris never finished a 6th inning throwing a 101MPH fastball and far be it from me to judge any athlete on whether they have anything left in the tank. But you usually hear the stories about the pitcher wanting to go one more inning or one more batter, etc., and the manager being the one to tell him the bad news. I guess that’s not Skubal (at least according to Hinch). 


Michael W

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Oct 11, 2025, 12:48:07 PMOct 11
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> Certainly, Lolich or Morris never finished a 6th inning throwing a 101MPH fastball 
>and far be it from me to judge any athlete on whether they have anything left in the tank. But you usually hear the 
>stories about the pitcher wanting to go one more inning or one more batter, etc., and the manager being the one to 
>tell him the bad news. I guess that’s not Skubal (at least according to Hinch).

I think this is exactly right.  Skubal gave it his all, and everyone knew he was done.  No fault there.

Michael

Peter Welch

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Oct 11, 2025, 12:54:44 PMOct 11
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Bullpen did fine and escaped some serious jams.  Too many blown scoring opportunities cost us this one and maybe a couple of questionable lineup choices.

Peter



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Brad Smith

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Oct 11, 2025, 12:54:45 PMOct 11
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Yeah. I can’t really criticize a guy—he knows his limitations. But it’s not like he got through the 6th with Seattle stranding two men on base after hard hit singles,  with the final out a fly ball to the warning track. You’d like to think he’d push it until he was having trouble getting guys out, or could turn it over to Vest for the 9th.

I guess that’s just old-school thinking. 

Brad Smith

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Peter Welch

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Oct 11, 2025, 1:10:59 PMOct 11
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How hard were workhorse guys like Lolich and Morris throwing out if the gate back when they were throwing complete games?

Morris and Lolich weren’t soft tossers but I doubt they were throwing 100+ mph right from the start like Skubal does.  Skubal expends a ton of energy on every pitch.

Old school starters seemed to work up to higher velocity later in the game and be more efficient with their pitches in order to stretch out their starts.  Modern starters tend to maximize velocity and spin right out if the gate because they know they usually won’t be going more than 6 innings. 

Peter
I 
On Oct 11, 2025, at 12:54 PM, Brad Smith <fudge...@earthlink.net> wrote:

 Yeah. I can’t really criticize a guy—he knows his limitations. But it’s not like he got through the 6th with Seattle stranding two men on base after hard hit singles,  with the final out a fly ball to the warning track. You’d like to think he’d push it until he was having trouble getting guys out, or could turn it over to Vest for the 9th.

Cal Lord

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Oct 11, 2025, 1:15:55 PMOct 11
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I will never forget the time the Red Sox manager Grady Little went out to pull Pedro from a playoff game. Pedro convinced him to let him stay in and the Red Sox lost the game by allowing Matsui to hit against him and he double in two runs.The manager was fired soon after for making the BAD decision. At the time I thought he made the right decision. It just didn’t work out. 

It is easy to second guess the manager especially when the ace is on the mound. If Pedro was gassed and should have come out, the same could be true for Skubal. 
Cal

Roger King

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Oct 11, 2025, 2:58:04 PMOct 11
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To be clear, this is kind of what I was hinting at as well when I said the quote from Hinch was “interesting”. Everyone apparently agreeing Skubal was gassed, but you’d never know it from how he performed. As Brad says, it’s not like he loaded the bases and barely got out holding the lead. That’s normally what we think of when we say a pitcher is clearly tired.

I can certainly understand how striking out the side a couple of innings in a row and really cranking it up at the end at 100 mph would be exhausting so again gotta give the benefit of the doubt that Hinch & Skubal know best but objectively it’s not obvious at all that he was gassed. You’d think the opposite! 

Like why couldn’t he just go out and throw another inning where he only hits 95 on the gun?  :-)

Peter Welch

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Oct 11, 2025, 3:09:53 PMOct 11
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Scott Boras calling the shots…just kidding.

Peter


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Paul Meloche

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Oct 11, 2025, 4:07:53 PMOct 11
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Skubal “only” going six innings vs seven arguably cost us the game. It may have just been Skubal and Vest needed to get us through the 9th in that hypothetical.

Credit the Mariners for even though being dominated by Skubal they fouled off enough pitches to drive the pitch count up. That and Naylor’s lucky double and heads up baserunning. 

Paul M.

On Oct 11, 2025, at 12:09 PM, Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com> wrote:

 Scott Boras calling the shots…just kidding.

Brad Smith

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Oct 11, 2025, 5:32:34 PMOct 11
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All true, and basically irrelevant to my point.  I would like to think a pitcher is like, “it’s 2-1 in the decisive game—lose and season is over.im getting guys out and they’re not hitting me hard. Me at 90% (or 85, or whatever) is a better option than the pen. I’m staying in.”

To take the Morris example, yeah, maybe starters didn’t  throw as hard every pitch. OTOH, they didn’t usually come out for the 10th inning, either. McLain and Lolich didn’t usually pitch on 2 days rest.

 Again, the guys who are there have to make the call. Skubal knows his limits. Nonetheless, I would prefer a guy who doesn’t think it’s time to come out with the game on the line in the do or die game to end the season or advance,especially after retiring 13 straight batters,9 on strikeouts.

Old school, I know.


Brad Smith

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On Oct 11, 2025, at 1:11 PM, Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com> wrote:

 How hard were workhorse guys like Lolich and Morris throwing out if the gate back when they were throwing complete games?

Peter Welch

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Oct 11, 2025, 6:24:52 PMOct 11
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Yep, it’s old school, Brad.  That’s not how modern starters and managers approach things.

I joked about Boras calling the shots.  Maybe a kernel of truth.  Protect the investment for the big payday.

Peter



On Oct 11, 2025, at 5:32 PM, Brad Smith <fudge...@earthlink.net> wrote:

 All true, and basically irrelevant to my point.  I would like to think a pitcher is like, “it’s 2-1 in the decisive game—lose and season is over.im getting guys out and they’re not hitting me hard. Me at 90% (or 85, or whatever) is a better option than the pen. I’m staying in.”

Roger King

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Oct 11, 2025, 8:59:47 PM (14 days ago) Oct 11
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There were definitely some comments from Tiger fans about how if the tank only holds 6 innings, is that really worth $300 million?  

I mean, on the one hand, it feels somewhat ridiculous throwing any criticism at the likely repeat Cy Young winner. On the other hand, dude couldn’t you have just given us one more inning? Please 😆

Peter Welch

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Oct 11, 2025, 9:03:22 PM (14 days ago) Oct 11
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His final pitch was 101-mph but Hinch and Skubal agreed he was done for the night.   On the surface that seems odd, but you have to respect how Skubal felt about deciding he was done for the night, even if we don't really understand it.

Peter
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Subject: Re: Pulling Skubal (was: Carp Bomb)
 

Dave

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Oct 11, 2025, 9:05:54 PM (14 days ago) Oct 11
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Up it $100M.  That is what has been bandied about.  The first $400M contract.

Roger King

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Oct 11, 2025, 9:10:00 PM (14 days ago) Oct 11
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You’re right. That’s one of the lines I saw: if the tank only holds 6 innings, is it worth *$400 million*? 




Roger King
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Peter Welch

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Oct 11, 2025, 9:10:49 PM (14 days ago) Oct 11
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Yep, the Dodgers, Yankees or Mets will give Skubal at least $400 million.  Skubal might like to pitch with Seattle since he went to college there, but I doubt the Mariners will pony up the money Boras wants.   Skubal is a West Coast guy, but I don't think the Giants or Padres will be able to complete financially with what the Dodgers offer.  Dark horse candidate is the Angels. 

Peter
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Smith, Bradley

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Oct 12, 2025, 12:28:19 PM (13 days ago) Oct 12
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Nah, I don't have to "respect" that decision. I accept it—it's reality. And I'm not too critical, because only he really knows. But there's enough doubt in my mind that I don't have to "respect" it. Sometimes, when you think you've given your all, you have to go deeper, even more than you thought possible. Suppose Scott Boros had stood next to him and said, "you'll get $100 million just for pitching the 7th?" Or his wife had gone to mound and said, "Pitch the 7th, or I'm leaving?" Would he have gone out? Something tells me that after retiring 13 straight and still throwing over 100 mph, there was a little something left in the tank, enough to try to get the game to Vest and dramatically increase our odds of winning. Skubal was at 99 pitches, a number he has topped 9 times in the last 2 years.

"I was really gassed, but I was getting them out. Sometimes, when everything is on the line, you have to dig deeper and see what's really there. For the fans. For the team. That's why I told AJ to give me the ball for the 7th." That I would "respect"—even if the first Seattle batter in the 7th hit a homer off him. What he did decide won't keep me from rooting for him, or from thinking he's a great pitcher, or make me think he's a bad guy in some way, or even think he's not dedicated to the Tigers. But precisely because I can't know more than I can see, no, I don't "respect" the decision.

Bradley A. Smith
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Peter Welch

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Oct 12, 2025, 12:43:24 PM (13 days ago) Oct 12
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Fair enough, you don't respect the decision. Why do you think Skubal decided he was done after 6 innings/99 pitches (and was still dominating and throwing 100+ mph) in the biggest game of the season?

Peter

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Peter Welch

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Oct 12, 2025, 1:06:55 PM (13 days ago) Oct 12
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Might even be higher than $400 million for Skubal.
Big risk, he'll be 30 and I'm not sure his arm will hold up.  Skubal has already had 2 elbow surgeries in his career and I'm not sure the human arm can hold up to throwing as hard he does over a long period of time.  Skubal is a strong guy who is in great shape, but that's no guarantee his arm will stay healthy.


Peter
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Roger King

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Oct 12, 2025, 1:16:15 PM (13 days ago) Oct 12
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For me again, it’s just funny that all the sports writers and even many of the fans keep repeating the line that it was *obvious* he was gassed.

But no, it’s the exact opposite. It wasn’t obvious at all. A guy throwing 100 miles an hour and striking out the side does not look gassed. Not in any universe. He looks strong and like he could pitch more innings! 

Again, I’m not doubting that he was if he says so but I’m just pushing back on the idea it’s “obvious” he was.

As for your question Peter, I think Skubal is of the mindset that if he can’t reach back and hit that amazing velocity, he won’t be as effective. And it’s pretty obvious that he is in one gear his entire start. He isn’t one of these guys who ramps up. So I imagine in his mind if he doesn’t think he can stay at that level, that’s his version of being gassed. 

I hope it isn’t because he wanted to still get in a workout after the game, which is his routine. I would hope he would forgo that in this situation and give another inning instead :-)


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Peter Welch

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Oct 12, 2025, 1:20:01 PM (13 days ago) Oct 12
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Agreed, throwing 101-mph isn't an obvious sign he was tired.

I just think Hinch had a gameplan right from the start (Skubal to go 6, then Holton/Finnegan and then Vest) and pray his hitters actually score a couple of runs.

Peter
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Brad Smith

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Oct 12, 2025, 2:10:22 PM (13 days ago) Oct 12
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I don’t know. If I had to guess, it was mindset—he started the game thinking “I just need to go  6 innings.” 

I respect it was his decision to make (and Hinch’s, obviously).

If he’d been pitching a perfect game, do you he would have said, ”I’m done.”? 

 Again, I don’t want to be too hard on him. The dedication and effort it takes to get to where he is is amazing. I think, and will probably always think, that he should have answered the bell for Round 7, and maybe 8, and yes, I will think a bit less of him as a player (though still recognizing his greatness) for not doing it. 

Brad Smith

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Peter Welch

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Oct 12, 2025, 2:17:57 PM (13 days ago) Oct 12
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Would also have been interesting to see if he had come out if the Tigers were up 6-0 or something like that (we wish!).

I think Hinch had a specific gameplan mapped out and it was always going to be Skubal pitches 6 innings, then Finnegan/Holton for 1 or 2 innings and then Vest for 1 or 2, assuming the game was close.  
Obviously we weren't there for the conversation, but I get the impression Hinch was never going to "push back" on Skubal and say to him "come on, Skoobs, get out there for another inning...you can do it!".

Peter

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Sent: Sunday, October 12, 2025 2:10 PM

Peter Welch

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Oct 12, 2025, 10:26:41 PM (13 days ago) Oct 12
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Hinch probably told him that 6 innings was all they expected.  It was the most important game of the season...set the bar higher.

Peter

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Sent: Sunday, October 12, 2025 2:10 PM

David Panian

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Oct 12, 2025, 11:30:00 PM (13 days ago) Oct 12
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When Hinch says Skubal said he emptied the tank, I don't think he meant the fastball. I think he meant his changeup.

While Skubal's fastball velocity and location were still excellent, he had missed badly with his changeup in the fifth and sixth innings and even a few times in the fourth. He missed a lot with it all game long, really.

Skubal pitch chart 101025.jpg

After missing with it against Arozarena in the sixth, he just rared back and fired fastballs to finish off Arozarena and Raleigh. He wouldn't get away with only his fastball for another inning. He needs at least the threat of the changeup to mess with hitters' timing. The Mariners hitters coming up in the seventh were J-Rod, Polanco, Suarez and Naylor. All of them are too good to just try to pump fastballs past them, even at 100. My guess is that Skubal figured he couldn't get away with only his fastball for much longer.

David


Michael W

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Oct 13, 2025, 9:48:11 PM (12 days ago) Oct 13
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> That’s one of the lines I saw: if the tank only holds 6 innings, is it worth *$400 million*? 

I'm pretty sure that they, and we, will get a definitive answer to that question.

Michael

Peter Welch

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Oct 13, 2025, 10:07:42 PM (12 days ago) Oct 13
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I don't know, I'd still take my chances with Skubal pitching in the 7th inning over Holton even with his change-up losing effectiveness.  

Peter
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Peter Welch

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Oct 13, 2025, 10:26:13 PM (12 days ago) Oct 13
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Most modern #1 starters aren't expected to go much more than 6 innings.

Peter
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Subject: Re: Pulling Skubal (was: Carp Bomb)

Peter Welch

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Oct 13, 2025, 10:38:15 PM (12 days ago) Oct 13
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I see that Nate Snell tonight has pitched 8 innings of shutout baseball for the Dodgers.  He has thrown 103 pitches through 8.   He has been more efficient with his pitches than Skubal so he lasted 2 more innings than Skubal.  I'm guessing the Dodgers will bring in Sasaki to try closing it out.  They lead 1-0 in the top of the 9th.

Peter
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Subject: Re: Pulling Skubal (was: Carp Bomb)
 
I think it’s more the magical 100 pitch limit, which is not based on any actual injury or effectiveness data I know of. It’s just an arbitrary round number. But it often coincides with 6 innings. 

Jeff

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Peter Welch

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Oct 13, 2025, 10:44:37 PM (12 days ago) Oct 13
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The 100-pitch cutoff has become almost gospel.  

Peter
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Subject: Re: Pulling Skubal (was: Carp Bomb)
I think it’s more the magical 100 pitch limit, which is not based on any actual injury or effectiveness data I know of. It’s just an arbitrary round number. But it often coincides with 6 innings. 

Jeff

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David Panian

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Oct 13, 2025, 11:03:19 PM (12 days ago) Oct 13
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Yeah, but Nate Snell is from an era when starting pitchers regularly worked late into games. It is, however, impressive for a 73-year-old who last pitched for the 1987 Tigers.

David


Peter Welch

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Oct 13, 2025, 11:28:36 PM (12 days ago) Oct 13
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LOL!  I always want to call Brad Snell "Nate".  Not the first time.

Peter
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Michael W

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Oct 13, 2025, 11:29:42 PM (12 days ago) Oct 13
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LOL!

Roger King

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Oct 13, 2025, 11:38:59 PM (12 days ago) Oct 13
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Call him Blake for a change. 


Peter Welch

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Oct 13, 2025, 11:49:07 PM (12 days ago) Oct 13
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Good grief, I know a Brad Snell from another interest in my life.

Blake pitched a hell of a game tonight.  🙂
I hope Nate and Brad are doing ok.


Peter

From: Roger King <pnag...@pnagency.com>
Sent: Monday, October 13, 2025 11:38 PM

Jeffrey Withey

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Oct 14, 2025, 2:46:02 AM (12 days ago) Oct 14
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I think it’s more the magical 100 pitch limit, which is not based on any actual injury or effectiveness data I know of. It’s just an arbitrary round number. But it often coincides with 6 innings. 

Jeff

From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com>
Sent: Monday, October 13, 2025 10:26:09 PM

To: Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Pulling Skubal (was: Carp Bomb)
 

[EXTERNAL]

Tanvir Shaikh

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Oct 14, 2025, 4:33:17 AM (12 days ago) Oct 14
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On Tue, Oct 14, 2025 at 4:44 AM Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
The 100-pitch cutoff has become almost gospel.  

In the early days of Sabermetrics, I had read a study that the rate of pitching injury for starting pitchers went up by something like the third power with the number of pitches.  I imagine people have studied the problem since then, but I don't know the results.

-Tapu

Brad Smith

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Oct 14, 2025, 7:33:45 AM (12 days ago) Oct 14
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Who knew Milt Wilcox would become the prototype for a great starting pitcher?

Brad Smith

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On Oct 13, 2025, at 10:26 PM, Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com> wrote:



Peter Welch

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Oct 14, 2025, 10:21:23 AM (11 days ago) Oct 14
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Wasn't age also a factor in the pitch count studies correlating to injuries?  Having a 20-year-old throw multiple 130+ pitch starts and 250+ innings drastically increased the chance they'd blow out their arm.  Older pitchers tend to be able to handle heavier workloads.

Anecdotally, in MLB history there were certainly several top young pitchers who blew out their arms after a heavy workload at an early age.
Even many college pitchers who got drafted suffered arm injuries and never could do much in the majors because they were throwing 150+ pitch starts in college.

Today with advances in modern surgical techniques and rehab programs many pitchers are able to save their careers whereas 40+ years-ago they'd never pitch again or be effective again after an elbow or shoulder injury.  For example, Mark Fidrych might have had a much longer career if he had access to modern surgical procedures and rehab programs.

However, despite all the pitch count/innings limitations today you still see plenty of pitcher arm injuries.
Of course, I think that's more related to modern pitchers trying to throw so hard in shorter stints and with so much spin (sliders and splitters can be tough on the arm).  With all the pitch count limitations, pitchers still get hurt a lot.

Throwing a baseball 95+ mph with tons of spin is just tough on the human arm.

Peter


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Subject: Re: Pulling Skubal (was: Carp Bomb)
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Peter Welch

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Oct 15, 2025, 9:14:37 AM (10 days ago) Oct 15
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In the Dodgers-Brewers NLCS series, the Dodgers' starters, Snell (Blake, not Nate) and Yamamoto, have gone 8 innings and 9 innings in the first 2 games.

Dodgers are going old school!  (I also think another reason is the Dodgers' bullpen is so bad so they trust the starters over the relievers).

To be fair to the Skubal situation, Snell and Yamamoto had thrown fewer pitches after 6 innings than Skubal.
Yamamoto threw 111 pitches in 9 innings and Snell threw 103 pitches in 8 innings.  Skubal was at 99 pitches through 6 innings.
Snell and Yamamoto were both way below 99 pitches after 6 innings.

Snell and Yamamoto both had dominating starts (as did Skubal), but it's still unusual to see a manager allow their starter to go 8 or 9 innings anymore even if they are pitching well.  Kind of fun to see (even though I'm rooting for the Brewers).

Peter

From: Brad Smith <fudge...@earthlink.net>
Sent: Sunday, October 12, 2025 2:10 PM

Roger King

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Oct 15, 2025, 9:22:25 AM (10 days ago) Oct 15
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Yeah, I’m sure the Tigers plan wasn’t for Skubal to pitch 6 innings no matter what. Obviously it was based on pitch count. If he had only thrown 75 pitches, he’s out there for the 7th. 

That said, Brad did mention Skubal has thrown over 100 pitches 9 times in the last 2 years.  Why couldn’t this be the 10th? Seattle did have the heart of the order coming up (his last batter was the #2 hitter Raleigh) and if he did truly feel there wasn’t much left in the tank, Hinch & Skubal may have thought that’s the time to make the switch. I wonder if he would’ve gone out there for another inning if it was the 7-8-9 hitters.  

It’s pretty clear that Skubal wants to go full throttle every inning and if there’s a chance he’ll only be “3/4 throttle”, he doesn’t want to go out there. A bit of a perfectionist I guess.


Peter Welch

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Oct 15, 2025, 9:46:58 AM (10 days ago) Oct 15
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Give credit to the Seattle hitters for forcing Skubal to throw 99 pitches through 6 innings.  Even though Skubal was mostly dominating them they were fouling off or taking a lot of pitches to drive up his pitch count.  

By the way, I read that after Naylor hit that cheap double in the 2nd inning and was taking a big lead at 2B, the Tigers' bench was trying to get Skubal to step off the mound but he didn't notice them or didn't hear them because it was too loud.  Skubal was probably seething inside that Naylor got that cheap hit and maybe a bit distracted.
Naylor got a huge jump and stole 3rd, which of course led to the tying run at the time.  If Skubal had stepped off it's likely Naylor never steals 3rd and probably doesn't eventually score.  The Tigers would have been up 1-0 after 6 instead of the game being tied 1-1.  I don't know if Skubal would have been allowed to start the 7th if he had 1-0 lead.  

Hinch and Skubal decided Skubal didn't have enough in the tank left to continue to be effective.  The data showed Skubal was losing command of his change-up in the 6th inning even though he was still throwing 101-mph.  You'd think Hinch could have trusted putting Skubal out there for another inning.  I would still trust a tiring Skubal who was still throwing 101-mph to get the hitters out.  He's the best starter in baseball and one hell of a competitor.  Trust him.  

If the Tigers were up 4-0 after 6 I wonder if Skubal would have pitched in the 7th?


Peter

From: Roger King <pnag...@pnagency.com>
Sent: Wednesday, October 15, 2025 9:22 AM

Peter Welch

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Oct 15, 2025, 9:52:25 AM (10 days ago) Oct 15
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Sorry, Naylor stealing 3rd led to the Mariners taking the 1-0 lead at the time (the Tigers later tied it at 1-1 on Carp's homer in the 6th).  Without Naylor stealing 3rd, Skubal likely would have had a shutout going through 6.

Peter

From: Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com>
Sent: Wednesday, October 15, 2025 9:46 AM
To: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com>

Roger King

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Oct 15, 2025, 9:57:38 AM (10 days ago) Oct 15
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No, Carpenter’s homer was a two run shot. Baez had doubles to lead off the inning. Skubal left with a 2-1 lead.



Roger King
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Peter Welch

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Oct 15, 2025, 10:00:31 AM (10 days ago) Oct 15
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So I wonder if they pull Skubal with a 2-0 lead after 6 if Naylor never steals 3rd and eventually scores that early run?

Peter

From: Roger King <pnag...@pnagency.com>
Sent: Wednesday, October 15, 2025 9:57 AM
To: Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com>
Cc: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com>

Peter Welch

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Oct 15, 2025, 10:02:27 AM (10 days ago) Oct 15
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I'd still take my chances with a possibly tiring Skubal in the 7th.  I wonder how insistent Hinch was with him?  Did he just ask Skubal how he felt and Skubal said, "I'm done", or did Hinch push back?  Some old school managers might have said to Skubal, "come on, Skoobs, get your butt out there for the 7th, you can do it!".  Or some old school pitchers might have said to Hinch, "yeah, I'm a bit tired, but I've got this.  Leave me in, skip!".

Peter
From: Roger King <pnag...@pnagency.com>
Sent: Wednesday, October 15, 2025 9:22 AM

Peter Welch

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Oct 15, 2025, 10:13:22 AM (10 days ago) Oct 15
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I'm not saying I necessarily think taking Skubal out after 6 was a bad decision.  Hinch trusted his bullpen to hold the 2-1 lead for 3 innings.  Unfortunately it didn't happen.  (Of course, ultimately the Tigers' inability to score runs cost them the game, not the pitching).

Peter
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Sent: Wednesday, October 15, 2025 10:02 AM

Brad Smith

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Oct 15, 2025, 10:35:30 AM (10 days ago) Oct 15
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I would have tried to get Skubal thru 7, then go to Vest for 2 inning save, or maybe Melton/Vest for 1 each. That’s your best chance to win. If Skubal takes 15 pitches in the 7th—a long inning—he’s still well shy of 120. 

It’s hardly risk-free. What do you do, for example, if the lead-off hitter doubles on pitch 6? But given that Skubal was mowing them down, I find it hard to believe he couldn’t go one more. Skubal at 80% is still your best pitcher. I think in the final game of the series, the manager has to ask for more, and the player has to try to give it.

Brad Smith

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Peter Welch

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Oct 15, 2025, 11:59:02 AM (10 days ago) Oct 15
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Skubal is such a fierce competitor.  I'm surprised he didn't insist on staying in there.  He must have really felt gassed.

Peter

From: Brad Smith <fudge...@earthlink.net>
Sent: Wednesday, October 15, 2025 10:35 AM

Roger King

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Oct 15, 2025, 12:05:06 PM (10 days ago) Oct 15
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Meanwhile, if the Tigers could have managed just one key hit in innings 10-15, Skubal would be on the hill for Game 3 vs Toronto at Comerica Park tonight.  Damn!

The reason I focus on Hinch so much is because the Tigers lost some key close games down the stretch & in the playoffs so the little decisions do matter. 

Hinch:
-Didn't push Skubal for another inning
-Weirdly left Finnegan in to face the LH hitting Naylor despite LH Holton being ready in the pen (Naylor got a hit to keep the inning going setting up the tying RBI from the next hitter)
-Absolutely refused to let Jones get an at bat in a 15-inning game when the team was starving for a key hit

Never mind line-up choices, any one of the above could have been the difference in a Tigers series win.  


Michael W

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Oct 15, 2025, 12:09:35 PM (10 days ago) Oct 15
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> That said, Brad did mention Skubal has thrown over 100 pitches 9 times in the last 2 years.  
> Why couldn’t this be the 10th? 

I think there's a difference between the last pitch of an inning being your 104th, and the first pitch being your 100th.  If often takes 15 or 20 pitches to get through an inning.  I'm sure if Skubal had needed 3 or 4 for pitches to get through the sixth, he would have thrown them.

Michael



Roger King

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Oct 15, 2025, 12:21:16 PM (10 days ago) Oct 15
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For sure...but Skubal's previous high for the year was 107...which was in Game 1 of these same AL playoffs vs Cleveland.

So, now we're talking about just 8 more pitches in the 7th...and that would only equal his previous high.  How about 11 more for 110?  Is 3 more pitches than his previous high (accomplished just a week ago) a stretch in an elimination game?  Start the 7th inning and see what happens.  


Peter Welch

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Oct 15, 2025, 12:37:31 PM (10 days ago) Oct 15
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Skubal struck out the dangerous Raleigh on 3 straight 99+ mph pitches for the final out of the 6th (the last pitch being 101 mph).  On the surface, it was pretty surprising Skubal was lifted after doing that.

J-Rod, Polanco, Suarez and Naylor were the first 4 hitters due up in the bottom of the 7th.  They are all power threats.  I guess Hinch was afraid a tiring Skubal would make a mistake with one of them.  

Finnegan got J-Rod out, walked Polanco on a 3-2 pitch, and then got Suarez out.  The lefty Naylor singled against Finnegan, and then the lefty Holton came in and gave up the game-tying single to the righty pinch hitter Rivas (Rivas is a switch hitter and was batting righty against Holton) on a meatball change-up.  Not bringing in Holton to face Naylor was weird.

If we could only have that 7th inning back.

Peter
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Sent: Wednesday, October 15, 2025 12:21 PM
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Peter Welch

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Oct 15, 2025, 12:55:10 PM (10 days ago) Oct 15
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Hinch's in-game managing and lineup decisions weren't great.  I didn't think they were that good last year in the playoffs either. 
I think he's still a pretty good manager and gets a lot out of his teams even without using a trashcan. 

Hinch's refusal to use Jones was annoying.  I think Hinch was convinced Jones wasn't going to hit righties at all and that Keith (and Perez in the Cleveland series) was a better option against righties.  Jones has struggled against righties in his career (it's one reason that's held him back), but he was decent vs. righties in a small sample size this season.  Hinch only saw Jones as pinch hitter against lefties and didn't want to play him in the outfield.  The Tigers never faced a lefty starter so Jones never got a chance to start. 

Peter
From: Roger King <pnag...@pnagency.com>
Sent: Wednesday, October 15, 2025 12:04 PM
To: Brad Smith <fudge...@earthlink.net>
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Paul Meloche

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Oct 15, 2025, 4:39:30 PM (10 days ago) Oct 15
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Skubal has occasionally shown a tendency to lose it quickly across just a few batters (Cleveland a few weeks ago, Athletics towards the end of August, Cleveland last ALDS, etc).

Plus Seattle had hit him pretty well in the regular season this year. Maybe a tired Skubal against three power hitting righties when his changeup was no longer lethal and at 99 pitches was reason enough to pull him.
 
I would have left him in for all the reasons and had Finnegan ready to go if there was trouble. And like Roger said, the way it played out in RL there was no reason to leave Finnegan out there against Naylor when Holton was ready.

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