10 Concerning Developments
Michael W
#10 Trey Sweeney Doesn’t Cut It
Every team needs a shortstop and it is one of the hardest spots to fill. Still, 20 teams managed to find a shortstop who could post a .700 OPS, and eight teams had an .800+ shortstop. Sweeney, who had a little bit of pop in the minors, was the Tigers best hope coming into the season to either fill that role, or at least show potential to grow into it (as nobody expected anything from Javy Baez).
Of the 38 players who were primarily shortstops and had at least 300 PA in 2025, Sweeney ranked 37th in OPS, posting a dismal .548. Even though Baseball Reference’s RAA system is kind to shortstops, that was still graded as 19 runs below average. Worse still, Statcast rated Sweeney a further 5 runs below average on defense, which was in the bottom 5th.
As Trey turned 25 in April, I think we can count him out as a future shortstop.
#9 Regression by Thayron Liranzo
When the Tigers traded Jack Flaherty at the 2024 trade deadline – one of the best starters available at the time – their return haul was Sweeney and Liranzo. Liranzo had been baseball prospectus’ #70 overall prospect prior to that season, and although his performance in Advanced A that year had been a rather dull .700 OPS, he seemed to blossom after the trade, posting 1.031 at West Michigan (115 PA).
This year, his performance went from dull to poor. It was his “age 21” season, although his birthday is July 5th, so he is kind of in-between, and he posted a disappointing .659 OPS. He also only played 45 games at catcher (we’ll talk more about this later) indicating the Tigers don’t think too much of his defense. When we remember that Liranzo’s only exceptional season so far was at the hitter’s paradise of Rancho Cucamonga, I’m starting to think we can write him off.
#8 Colt Keith Getting Jerked Around
The one player we can genuinely expect to be around for a while is Colt Keith. Keith is under contract until 2029, with 3 team option years after that. As I wrote in the “promising observations,” Keith’s improved hitting this year was a good sign. Unfortunately, the Tigers have not been giving Keith an opportunity to learn a defensive position.
Keith’s long-term contract resulted in him being brought to the majors earlier than he likely would have been otherwise. He played only 238 total games in the minors, half of them were below AA. During that time, he injured his shoulder, which put into question whether he would be able to continue to play third base, the position he had primarily played until that point. In a normal situation, if the Tigers wanted him to learn a new position, he would have done it in the minors.
As it happened, Keith made the team out of spring training in 2024, and hasn’t been back to the minors since. Now, given all of these factors: limited minor league experience, a possible position change, and the Tigers long-term investment in him, you might have expected the Tigers to assign Keith to a position, and let him learn it. In fact, they’ve done the opposite – especially in 2025. After playing mainly mainly second base in 2024, in 2025 Keith had to split time between second (26 games), third (37 games), and first (18 games). Worst of all for a player who needs time to learn defense, he was relegated to being the DH for 51 games.
We can see where this is going. With limited experience at second and limited recent experience at third, Keith is going to get pigeon-holed as a weak defensive player, only suitable for DH-ing. And it might even be true, because how can he learn if he doesn’t practice? The Tigers followed exactly this pattern with Justyn-Henry Malloy, moving him from third base, where he had mainly played, to the outfield, then to first base, and then exclusively DH-ing him in the majors. Now Malloy can’t crack the line-up, because there is a logjam of DHs -- notably with Keith! Neither of these players was considered unathletic early in their career, but their development was stunted by management’s choices.
Keith is going to be around for a while. The Tigers are authors of some of their own problems.
#7 A Wasted Year for Jace Jung
The Tigers’ 2022 draft, Al Avila’s final draft, should be bearing fruit about now, and 4th round pick Troy Melton made a promising debut. But the only other player picked who doesn’t already look like a total bust is 1st rounder Jace Jung, the #12 overall pick. So, we’ve been counting on Jung as the near-term reinforcements for Detroit.
Jung had a respectable year at Toledo in 2024 (.831 OPS, age 23) and got a late-season call-up. Coming after a fine year in 2023, he appeared to be well on his way to contributing. He only managed a .665 OPS in his call-up, but for a rookie over a small sample size it was easy to celebrate his solid walk rate (16%) and call it good. The only other hint of trouble was that the International League, as a whole, had a league OPS of .763 – higher than normal. Jung’s hitting there wasn’t perhaps as good you might have thought.
In 2025, Jung got off to a good start at Toledo with an .872 OPS on April 20th, and was called back to Detroit. The Tigers gave him just 55 PA, and decided his .342 OPS was unbearable, and sent him back down. Jung responded with 3 home runs in his first 6 games back, and his Toledo OPS crested at .949 on May 22. But as it became clear that he wasn’t going to be returning to Detroit, he fell into a long funk. Jung hardly hit anything for almost a month and saw his OPS bottom out at .738. It must have been a discouraging time.
Jung recovered with a 6-game hitting streak in late June and posted a .858 OPS in July, but then slumped again in August. He finished strong with a 1.163 OPS in September, part of a crazy Mud Hens run that saw Toledo score in double digits ten times in 27 games. Jung was so hot in September that the Tigers activated him for the post-season roster – a surprise to many fans who weren’t following closely.
Overall, Jung managed an .816 OPS at Toledo, a bit worse than the prior year, and he never got another at bat in Detroit after his May demotion. After 2024, this is certainly a disappointment especially since Jung just turned 25 in October. Colt Keith’s positional chaos helped push Jung from his normal second base to third base, so his defense, like Keith’s and Malloy’s, is a work in progress. Jung still has some potential, and if the Tigers don’t re-sign Gleyber Torres, he may get a chance to show it. But 2026 is make-or-break for Jung’s future with the Tigers.
#6 Briceño Not Catching
Josue Briceño has been one of the Tigers better hitting prospects, and as I wrote in the “Promising Observations,” he had a fine year in 2025. But the story of the Tigers’ self-foot-shooting with regard to developing defenders continues.
A catcher who can hit has tremendous value. The median OPS for major-league catchers was only .712/.721 (min. 300 PA). It’s no surprise that the two teams with .900+ catcher OPS were both in the LCS. So, it stands to reason, that if you have a top young catching prospect who can hit, you’ll do everything you can to ensure his defense will meet the threshold. The Tigers are not.
In the first half of the season, Briceño played just 19 games at catcher in Advanced A, compared with 22 games at first base and 14 as a DH. In the second half, Briceño was promoted to AA, and there was going to be a playing time issue. Thayron Liranzo, also a good prospect, was the catcher at Erie. They were going to have to share time behind the plate. Inexplicably, with Liranzo and Briceño both needing the playing time, Erie gave 21 starts at catcher to Eliezer Alfonzo, the 25-year-old organizational soldier. Briceño only got 27 more games behind the plate in the 2nd half of the year.
As with Keith, Malloy, and possibly Jung, the Tigers are creating their own trouble. Briceño needs reps in order to improve his defense. If he can’t stick at catcher, he’ll be yet another 1B/DH type, not only much less valuable to the team, but also forcing another decent bat from the line-up. This year would have been prime learning time.
#5 Injuries to Young Starters
This one is simple. Jackson Jobe missed half of the season and will miss most, or all, of 2026 after having Tommy John surgery. Reese Olson missed half of the season with a repeat of the right shoulder strain that caused him to miss half of 2024. Sawyer Gipson-Long, after having 3 injuries and 2 surgeries in 2024, returned in June. But SGL only lasted a month before landing back on the IL. The Tigers were counting on some combination of these guys to be part of the rotation in 2025, and their injuries directly contributed to the team’s late season collapse. Moreover, Jobe will certainly miss most of 2026, and the repeat injuries certainly call into question the contributions we can expect from the other two. With Skubal and Mize both free-agents in the next few years, the rotation is very thin. This is compounded by concern #4.
#4 Thin Minor League Starting Pitching
Across their whole minor league system, the Tigers had 35 pitchers who pitched at least 60 innings this year. If you exclude pitchers who were used 90% or more in relief, and also exclude those aged 27 and older, only 19 remain. Two of those were traded at the trade deadline, and another one is Troy Melton who is already in Detroit, so that leaves 16 as potential prospects. With only 16 names, it’s pretty easy to see what the field looks like.
I confess I have a harder time predicting outcomes of minor league pitchers than hitters. However, some combination of age & level, strikeout rate, walk rate, and ERA is usually a good gauge. Based on that, it looks like the Tigers only really have 3 or 4 credible starting pitching prospects in the system right now. Contrast that with the 2020 off-season when I posted about 13 prospects that looked interesting.
The best-looking prospects to me are Lucas Elissalt and Kelvis Salcedo. Elissalt’s walk rate is a little high at 3.5 per nine innings, but he’s striking out better than 10 per 9 innings, and opponents are only batting .190 against him, with few home runs. That led to an aggregate ERA of 2.51 across Class A and Advanced A. Elissalt was only 20, so he’s young for those levels,
Salcedo is a slightly better version of the same story. He struck out 11 per nine innings, and opponents only batted .133 against him, while he walked 3.3 per nine innings. But Salcedo, who is 19, pitched primarily in the rookie league, with just 23 innings at Class A, so he’s still got a lot to prove.
Andrew Sears pitched well at Advanced A after pitching well last year at Lakeland, but he got lit up at AA, so at 22 he needs to get it together pretty quick to be major league starting candidate. Jaden Hamm looked good in 2023-24, but really didn’t have a good year this year at AA, also at age 22. Gabriel Reyes, at Lakeland, is making a steady comeback after missing all of 2023 with an injury. He’s been tough to hit with a .188 opponents’ batting average (.216 lifetime), but his peripherals, 8.1 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9, are a bit fringy for the low minors, and it was his second year at the level. He’ll be 22 and just starting Advanced A next year – perhaps the injury excuses that.
Overall, the Tigers better hope for Troy Melton to be the real deal, and some of the injured players to recover well. There is not much help coming. Hopefully one or two of these guys will make it through, but certainly not before 2027, and most of them will need longer.
#3 Regression by Greene and Carpenter
Riley Greene was 24 this year and Kerry Carpenter 27. Both are ages known for producing big steps forward, and certainly ages where improvement is anticipated. Greene and Carpenter are probably the Tigers two best hitters – they were first and second on the team in OPS in both 2023 and 2024, and on a trajectory to be among the core hitters of a future contending lineup. It's disappointing -- and at least a bit concerning -- that both regressed in 2025.
In Carpenter’s case it was a severe regression, his .788 OPS was the worst of his 4-year career, and nearly 150 points below his .938 in 2024. His batting average, walk rate, and isolated power each declined significantly. In fact, his walk rate was drawing national commentary near mid-year as he somehow only walked 8 times before August 1st. He did draw 10 more walks afterward, but still finished with a 48% reduction in his walk-rate year-over-year. A disappointing season to be sure.
Greene’s case was not as severe, as he posted an .806 OPS vs. .827 in 2024. Still, Greene was at an age where we hope and expect improvement, and his 2024 pace wasn’t so out-of-line that a regression to the mean was expected. Greene turned 25 in late September. He’s approaching the age where he is what he will be, and I think we all hoped for more.
It’s hard to imagine a contending Tigers team in the next two years where neither Greene nor Carpenter reach .810 OPS.
#2 Spencer Torkelson is Just Average
The good news is that Tork had career highs this year in batting average, walk rate, and isolated power, and he did it over 155 games. That means he clearly had his best offensive season. The bad news is that only netted him a .787 OPS. In a slightly down year for offense overall, that was good enough for 16th best among the 32 primarily first basemen who got at least 400 PA. It was worth 22 runs above replacement level for a whole season (all for batting, he was +0 on defense according to Baseball Reference).
Having an average player at any position isn’t really a bad thing, especially if he’s durable. The problem is that, as a prospect, Tork was supposed to be one of the stars to lead the Tigers to contention, not one of the filler players. If Tork isn’t going to be an elite player on the roster, who is? With Riley Greene taking a half-step back this year, this is a concern.
Here are what some other relevant first baseman did at age 25, ranked by OPS+ to normalize across different eras. Remember, this was Tork’s best season.
Prince Fielder 166Hank Greenberg 165
Jason Thompson 141
Miguel Cabrera 130
Tony Clark 128
Richie Hebner 128
Sean Casey 124
Jonathan Schoop 124
Darrell Evans 121
Spencer Torkelson 117
Dmitri Young 111
Carlos Pena 108
Norm Cash 107 (Broke out at age 26)
Dean Palmer 95 (An off season. He posted 122 at age 24, and 171 at age 26)
Enos Cabell 92
Cecil Fielder was in Japan at age 25, but his age 26 season was his career year, posting a 167 OPS+.
So, this table tells me that there is some hope. Players like Cecil, Palmer and Cash did have big jumps at age 26. But clearly Tork is lagging the trajectory of star players, and even the trajectory of just good players, so far.
#1 How to Escape the Tarik Skubal Labyrinth
You all know this story as well as I do, so just to write it clearly: the Tigers have to decide between (1) trading Skubal in the off-season, (2) trading him near the trade deadline, (3) signing him to long-term contract, or (4) doing their best with him in 2026 and then letting him walk. Of course, the choice really hinges on what players might be offered in trade and what price Skubal wants for his services. It is genuinely a very tough situation and the Tigers’ future will be significantly impacted by the result. The concern is, is Scott Harris up to the test?
Peter Welch
Sent: Tuesday, October 21, 2025 6:01 PM
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Subject: 10 Concerning Developments
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Michael W
>They don't know what to do with Keith and
Roger King
Peter Welch
Peter Welch
Sent: Tuesday, October 21, 2025 9:10 PM
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Cc: Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: 10 Concerning Developments
Michael W
Michael W
Peter Welch
Sent: Tuesday, October 21, 2025 9:10 PM
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Subject: Re: 10 Concerning Developments