Aggressive Baserunning

[Michael W]

Has anyone seen any stats or evidence to say that the Tigers' aggressive baserunning is helping them (or not)?  I've got a sinking feeling that it isn't.  We had a stretch today where six consecutive batters reached base safely, but we only scored 2 runs because two runners were out on the bases.  And it's definitely not just today.  We are losing quite a few runners who have already reached base.

I may have to dig into this, but I'd love to hear what you've already found.

Michael

[Rob Hawks]

Tigers lead 2 to 1 in the 4th

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[Peter Welch]

I saw some stat earlier in the season showing the Tigers had taken more extra bases than any other team.  Whether this was worth the number of outs on they've been making on the bases is another question.

Peter

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From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Michael W <miw...@gmail.com>
Sent: Tuesday, September 2, 2025 7:29 PM
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Subject: Aggressive Baserunning

 

Has anyone seen any stats or evidence to say that the Tigers' aggressive baserunning is helping them (or not)?  I've got a sinking feeling that it isn't.  We had a stretch today where six consecutive batters reached base safely, but we only scored 2 runs because two runners were out on the bases.  And it's definitely not just today.  We are losing quite a few runners who have already reached base.

I may have to dig into this, but I'd love to hear what you've already found.

Michael

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[David Panian]

Baseball Savant has baserunning stats. Here are the Tigers' stats for extra bases taken run value:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/baserunning?game_type=Regular&n=top&key_base_out=All&season_end=2025&season_start=2025&split=no&team=116&type=Run&with_team_only=1

This excludes steals. The Tigers are second in MLB with 8 runner runs. Milwaukee is first with 14. Arizona and Cincinnati are third with 6. Seattle is worst with -8.

The Tigers are worst at being thrown out at -14, one ahead of Washington.

The Tigers have the best safe per advance opportunity percentage at 39% but are tied with five others for the worst safe/attempt percentage at 96%. They attempt to advance 5% above average, which is the highest in MLB.

In the individual player list, Colt Keith is tied for third in runner runs with 4. Corbin Carroll and Elly De La Cruz lead with 6. McKinstry has 3. Gleyber has -2, which is the Tigers' worst. Alejandro Kirk and Jonathan Aranda are MLB's worst at -5. 

You can watch video of each attempt to advance or not. 

On the whole, it looks like the aggressiveness has paid off, but they could be smarter about their attempts.

David

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[Michael W]

Thanks, this is helpful.  

Michael

[Michael W]

So I dug through this a bit.  Statcast tracks three independent numbers per player - the run value of taking extra bases, the run value (penalty) of being thrown out, and the run value (penalty) of holding when you might have advanced.  (It's worth noting that for whatever reason they count advancing on a flyball from third, but not from second or first.  I don't know why).

As Dave said, the Tigers are overall 2nd best at +8.0 runs total value, despite being thrown out the most (-13.7).  That's mostly because they are first with +35.0 runs from advancing, but it's also in part because they are 5th best at not holding when they shouldn't.  

The total is a little better than it might sound because it's +8 runs above average, and half the teams are below average.  So, for example, compared to the Mariners, ranked last at -8.4, the Tigers are +16.4 runs.  So my conclusion is, it's working!  The Brewers get almost as many runs from advancing (+30.1) but get caught a lot less (-4.2).  So there is room for optimization still.

Now part of that optimization is that the value is in no way evenly spread across the team.  Colt Keith has provided more than half the total himself at +4.25.  Several players are hurting the team, with negative scores.  Torres and Greene are probably being overly aggressive - or Joey Cora has misjudged their speed.   Attached is the breakdown by player.

It could be that the sample-sizes for individual players are small, and it's more useful to look at the team totals.  

Best,

Michael

On Tuesday, September 2, 2025 at 8:39:27 PM UTC-5 David Panian wrote:

[Peter Welch]

Torres was notorious for poor baserunning decisions with the Yankees, so not surprising.

Peter

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Subject: Re: Aggressive Baserunning

 

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[Peter Welch]

The Tigers don't attempt to steal many bases, but they certainly take their chances trying to take the extra base.

Peter

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Subject: Re: Aggressive Baserunning

 

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[Peter Welch]

Greene really isn't that fast and will probably get slower as he gets into his later 20s.  He needs to know his limitations on the bases better.

Keith is a surprise at being such an aggressive runner. 

McKinstry makes sense, since he's the triples specialist and hustles his ass off.

Baez and Perez make sense as well since they have some speed.

Funny that Brewer (Tiger) Hicklen produced 0.25 runs with his baserunning.  The guy is a legend (career 1.417 OPS and 0.1 WAR in 1 game with the Tigers!  He has more WAR than Sweeney, Meadows, Vierling, Malloy, Kreidler and Jung despite playing in 1 game).

Peter

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Subject: Re: Aggressive Baserunning

 

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