The Tigers went 6-22 in May, which wrecked their season, but in the majority of their May games they had decent starting pitching, certainly decent enough to have gone .500 if they had any kind of hitting, fielding and bullpen support. I don't think missing
Skubal hurt the team that much.
The problem in May was horrible hitting, bad fielding, bad managing decisions, and poor bullpen performances.
The Tigers have continued to get mostly decent starting pitching in June but haven't been able to make any inroads in the standings, again because of poor hitting, poor fielding, bad managing, and a poor bullpen. Even if Skubal had pitched more like the pre-surgery
Skubal in his starts after coming off the IL recently, there's no guarantee the Tigers win those games due to their other issues.
I'm not saying Melton is the next Skubal, but if Melton keeps pitching well and stays healthy, he'll be an adequate replacement for Skubal next year.
The Tigers also should get Jobe and Olson back at full strength next year (we hope), and they have a chance to be decent starters. Montero is showing he can be a solid mid-rotation starter, plus we'll have Valdez back (likely). Valdez isn't really an ace
anymore but he's still a decent mid-rotation starter. I think the Tigers should try to re-sign Mize, but I'd say it's less than a 50% chance he re-signs.
The Tigers also have a couple of starter prospects in the upper minors who might be able to help next year (Andrew Sears, Jake Miller).
It's also possible the Tigers could acquire a couple of near-ready younger starters if they trade Skubal, Mize, Flaherty, and other trade chips at the deadline. They also could sign a decent starter as a free agent if Mize signs elsewhere. There are some
decent free agent starters available after this season.
So I think losing Skubal next year won't be the biggest hole to fill on this team. Starting pitching will still be a strength.
We need much more massive upgrades in hitting and the bullpen.
Peter