Wednesday's Matchup
Joseph New
The Tigers win another one run game coming from behind and their new look bullpen shines. This could become habit forming although Jim Leyland may not have enough cigarettes to get through a season full of such games. The Tigers and Twins wrap up their 3 game series at Comerica on Wednesday night at 7:05 PM. It is Rick Porcello’s turn in the rotation. Rick was hit early and often in his last start against Boston. But he pitched well in a previous start against the Twins. Scott Baker has pitched very well this year for Minnesota but he was roughed up by Detroit in a previous start.
29 year old right hander Scott Baker made his major league debut for Minnesota in 2005. He was a pleasant surprise for the Twins pitching down the stretch of a disappointing season and going 3-3 with a 3.35 ERA in 9 starts. Baker threw strikes and held opponents to a .241 average as a rookie. He began the 2006 season in the Twins rotation but struggled and lost his job at the end of May after going 2-5 with a 6.06 ERA in 9 starts. After some time at AAA Rochester Baker returned to Minnesota in July and was 3-3 with a 6.82 ERA in 7 starts. Overall for 2006 he was 5-8 with a 6.37 ERA. Baker began 2007 at AAA but with the struggles in the Twins rotation he was called up in mid-May. In 23 starts he finished the season at 9-9 with a 4.26 ERA. Baker had a good year in 2008 despite a lot of no decisions. He finished the year at 11-4 with a 3.45 ERA. Baker put together a very good season in 2009 going 15-9 with a 4.37 ERA. Baker struggled through the first half of 2010 but he came on strong at the end to finish the season 12-9 with a 4.49 ERA. Baker had to win his job in the starting rotation in the spring of 2011 and he was awful in his first 2 starts. Since then he has gone 2-1 with a 3.02 ERA over his last 8 starts and he comes into Wednesday’s game with a record of 2-3 and a 3.65 ERA.
Baker throws a fastball in the 88-95 mp range along with a hard slider and a changeup both in the low to mid 80’s. The fastball is his most effective pitch and he will use it 80 % of the time. He will use his slider mainly with 2 strikes on hitters as a strike out pitch and he mixes in the changeup in place of the fastball every once in a while to keep hitters off balance. Baker is a power pitcher who will average around 8 strikeouts per 9 innings but also has very good control averaging 2 walks per 9 innings. So far in 2011 he has 61 strikeouts and just 20 walks in 61 2/3 innings giving him an average of 8.9 strikeouts and 2.9 walks per 9 innings. It also gives him a very good 3 to 1 K/BB ratio. Baker is an extreme fly ball pitcher and he will give up some homeruns. He allowed 23 homeruns in 2010 and has given up 9 homeruns in 10 starts so far in 2011. Of the 9 homeruns he has given up 7 have come with the bases empty. And that is the key to success for Baker. He keeps traffic off of the bases. In 61 1/3 innings he has allowed just 58 hits and opponents are hitting .249 against him. Right handers are hitting just .160 against Baker however left handers are hitting .291 with 7 of the 9 homers he has allowed. A low hit rate and a low walk rate that add up to a 1.26 WHIP which means not many base runners against him. When he is on his game he allows very few scoring chances. The key to success with Baker is command. He gets ahead of hitters and doesn’t beat himself with walks. When he has struggled in the past it has been when his control betrayed him and he starting falling behind in counts and walking hitters.
Baker is 6-4 with a 4.84 ERA in 21 career starts against Detroit. In his one previous start against the Tigers in 2011 Baker allowed 5 runs on 6 hits and 5 walks in 4 1/3 innings in a no decision. Jhonny Peralta is 12 for 47 (.255) with 4 doubles and 2 homeruns against Baker. Brandon Inge is 9 for 42 (.214) with a double and a homerun, Victor Martinez is 11 for 34 (.324) with a double and a homerun, Miguel Cabrera is 10 for 30 (.333) with 3 doubles and 2 homeruns and Ramon Santiago is 8 for 23 (.348) with a double. Austin Jackson is 5 for 11 (.455) with 2 doubles and a triple, Ryan Raburn is 2 for 10 (.200), Brennan Boesch is 3 for 9 (.333) with 2 doubles, Alex Avila is 0 for 4 (.000) and Don Kelly is 1 for 1 (1.000) with a homerun. On the road this season Baker is 2-2 with a 3.18 ERA in 7 starts.
22 year old right hander Rick Porcello was a star pitcher for Seton Hall Prep school in New Jersey in the summer of 2007. On April 9th of 2009 he made his major league debut for the Detroit Tigers. Porcello was the 1st round draft pick of the Tigers in 2007. He began his pro career in 2008 with the Class A Lakeland Flying Tigers. He made 24 starts and was 6-6 leading the Florida State League with a 2.66 ERA. Despite being only 19 Porcello was both a mid-season and post-season all star in the FSL and was named the league’s best starting pitcher. He came to spring training with just an outside chance of making the major league roster but he proved to be one of the team’s best starters. Over the course of the season he proved he could pitch in the big leagues going 14-9 with a 3.96 ERA. Porcello got off to a bad start in 2010 going 4-10 with a 5.91 ERA in his first 17 starts but he finished strong and ended up with a record of 10-12 and a 4.92 ERA. Porcello was roughed up in his last start ending a string of 6 starts without a loss. He comes into Wednesday’s game with a record of 4-3 and a 3.93 ERA.
Porcello features a 2 seam sinking fastball and a 4 seam fastball in the 88-91 mph range. He also has a changeup and a sharp slider. Relying primarily on his sinking fastball Porcello was one of the best groundball pitchers in the majors as a rookie in 2009 with a 1.23 to 1 GB/FB ratio. But he struggled with his sinker through much of the 2010 season often leaving it up in the strike zone and getting hit. His GB/FB ratio dropped to 1.03 to 1 and his opponents batting average rose from .267 to .288. It got so bad that Porcello was sent back down to AAA Toledo to fix his problems. Eventually Rick seemed to figure some things out and he finished the season well going 6-2 with a 3.51 ERA over his last 10 starts. In the spring of 2011 Porcello toyed with adding his curve ball back into his repertoire making him a 4 pitch pitcher. But the experiment didn’t go well and started affecting how he threw his other pitches. By his final start in spring training Porcello discarded the curve and went back to his sinker, slider and changeup. Porcello got off to a tough start in 2011 allowing 10 runs on 18 hits in 10 innings in his first 2 starts. Then he began to turn things around. Over his next 6 starts Porcello allowed 7 runs on 30 hits in 39 2/3 innings. In his most recent start against Boston Porcello’s pitches were up in the strike zone and he allowed 6 runs on 6 hits including 2 homeruns in 3 innings. That was Porcello at his worst when his sinker doesn’t sink and he struggles to get left handed hitters out. Hopefully that start was just one bump in the road and Porcello can get back to forcing ground balls and making his infielders work.
Porcello is 3-3 with a 2.66 ERA in 8 career starts against Minnesota. He is already 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in one previous start against the Twins in 2011. Jason Kubel is 11 for 22 (.500) with 3 doubles and a homerun against Porcello. Michael Cuddyer is 2 for 19 (.105) with a homerun, Denard Span is 7 for 18 (.389), Delmon Young is 6 for 17 (.353) with a double and a homerun and Matt Tolbert is 3 for 13 (.231) with a double. Justin Morneau is 2 for 8 (.250) with a double and a homerun, Danny Valencia is 0 for 5 (.000), Alexi Casilla is 1 for 5 (.200), Jim Thome is 0 for 3 (.000) and Drew Butera is 0 for 2 (.000). At home this season Porcello is 1-2 with a 7.80 ERA in 3 starts.