My Contract Proposal

[Michael W]

If I was Scott Harris, this is what I would offer Skubal.  First, let's say that a conventional contract isn't going to get it done, because anything the Tigers offer in the form of "8 years, $400M", Boras will just prefer to wait.

Skubal's needs right now are: (1) Set yourself up for life, assuming your career ends early, and (2) worry like crazy that you'll get injured during 2026 and not get anything.  Skubal has already had 3 major injuries in his career, this is clearly on his mind.

I would offer something like:  3 years, $60M per year (notably including 2026), with 4 player options: $20M for each of the next two seasons, and $15M for each of the subsequent two.

Here's how I would sell it:

1. You're getting a $~55M raise over what you would otherwise get in 2026.  That's real money in your pocket right away.

2.  You eliminate all the risk that you get hurt during 2026, or even just have a bad year.

3.  Nobody else is likely to give you $60 for 2027 or 2028, so you are putting another $30-$40 million in your pocket early, that you'll never see otherwise.

4. If all goes well, and you pitch like you know you can, then you can skip out on your options, and go for a bigger contract in 2029.  You've already made nearly $100M more than you would have in the first three years, and salaries will be higher in 3 years for you to negotiate.  If you are great, this is your maximum upside.

5. If things don't go well - maybe 2028 is bad year or whatever, you have great downside protection.  And if you rebound later in your career, you can always get out of the contract in any year and go for the open market.  It's like having a floor for every year, but no ceiling.

6. If you get injured and never play again, you've got $250M guaranteed.

I don't know if Skubal would go for that, but it's not unappealing.

For the Tigers of course, the downside is they get stuck with Skubal if he gets hurt, or just busts early.  But the total damage is a lot less than if you give him the normal ascending contract.  And if he's really great, he'll walk early - but you are probably getting his best years.

Michael

[Cal Lord]

Where do I sign?

Cal LOL

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[Paul Meloche]

I like this idea, and have wondered why more agents/players don't go this route (overpay early in the contract, player options later in the contract). Presumably it's simply they'd rather be guaranteed $400M now vs the possibility they get hurt and "only" end up with $250M in the end. Or that down the road there's a salary cap and even if they're still at the top of their game they can't make what they would have had they agreed to a longer term deal previously.

[Michael W]

I hadn't thought about the salary cap risk.  But we could get an insurance policy for that.  If you are still great, and a new salary cap appears, the insurance pays $10M a year or something.   Tigers pay for the policy.

Michael

[David Panian]

Right? That looks like a fair deal for both the player and team.

When you're talking about star players in their 30s, I'd rather front-load the contract, anyway, so if they do decline badly, the later years don't seem like such a bad deal. I don't know if players and their agents like front-loading, but why wouldn't you want to get most of the money up front? 

The only issue from the team's standpoint could be if you could afford that within whatever the annual budget is. $60 million is a lot per year for one player. Would there still be room to sign a Bregman, Cease or some other free agent or keep all-stars like Greene?

I suppose the other way to go is like Ohtani's contract where it's a relatively low annual salary but years of deferred payments.

David

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[Michael W]

> I suppose the other way to go is like Ohtani's contract where it's a relatively 

> low annual salary but years of deferred payments.

I'm not a fan, but Bobby Bonilla approves of your idea.

Michael