Re: Wednesday, March 14 2012

[ah]

On 3/16/2012 3:17 AM, Hello, Purbeck wrote:
> On 16/03/2012 01:52, ah wrote:
>> On 3/15/2012 9:01 AM, Hello, Purbeck wrote:
>>> Dear diary
>>>
>>> Visited a Seychellian (is that a word?) dairy today to do a compare and
>>> contrast exercise, vis a vis my visit to an English dairy approximately a
>>> month ago.
>>>
>>> Most unhygienic.
>>
>> Lies.
>>
>> They import everything.
>
> I trust your next post to this thread will be a citation of sources
> justifying this wild allegation.

Traditionally the economy of Seychelles was based on plantations with
cinnamon, vanilla, and copra as the chief exports. In the 1960s, about 33% of
the working population worked at plantations, and 20% worked in the public or
government sector. In 1971, with the opening of the international airport,
tourism became the dominant industry. The tourism sector paid better, and the
plantation economy could only expand so far. The plantation sector of the
economy declined in prominence, and tourism and fishing became the primary
industries of Seychelles.

Since Seychelles' independence in 1976, per capita output in this Indian Ocean
archipelago has expanded to roughly seven times the old near-subsistence
level. Growth has been led by the tourist sector, which employs about 30% of
the labor force and provides more than 70% of hard currency earnings, followed
by tuna fishing. In recent years the government has encouraged foreign
investment in order to upgrade hotels and other services. At the same time,
the government has moved to reduce the dependence on tourism by promoting the
development of farming, fishing, small-scale manufacturing and most recently
the offshore sector. The vulnerability of the tourist sector was illustrated
by the sharp drop in 1991-92 due largely to the Gulf War. Although the
industry has rebounded, the government recognizes the continuing need for
upgrading the sector in the face of stiff international competition. Other
issues facing the government are the curbing of the budget deficit and further
privatization of public enterprises.

The French originally settled the Seychelles in 1770, setting up plantations
which relied heavily on slave labour to produce cotton, sugar, rice, and
maize. The British took control during the Napoleonic Wars, but without
removing the French upper class. After the British prohibited slavery in 1835,
the influx of African workers did not end because British warships captured
Arab slavers and forced the liberated slaves to work on plantations as
"apprentices" without pay. However planters soon realised they could grow
coconuts with less labour and more profit than the traditional crops.

Plantations were the main industry of the Seychelles until 1971, when the
international airport opened. Overnight tourism became a serious industry,
basically dividing the economy into plantations and tourism. In the 1960s,
about 33% of the working population worked at plantations but by 2006 it was
less than 3%.

While the tourism and industrial fishing industries were on a roll in the late
1990s, the traditional plantation economy atrophied. Cinnamon barks and copra
-- traditional export crops—dwindled to negligible amounts by 1991. There were
no exports of copra in 1996; 318 tons of cinnamon bark was exported in 1996,
reflecting a decrease of 35% in cinnamon bark exports from 1995.

Despite attempts to improve its agricultural base and emphasize locally
manufactured products and indigenous materials, Seychelles continues to import
90% of what it consumes. The exceptions are some fruits and vegetables, fish,
poultry, pork, beer, cigarettes, paint, and a few locally made plastic items.
Imports of all kind are controlled by the Seychelles Marketing Board (SMB), a
government parastatal which operates all the major supermarkets and is the
distributor and licensor of most other imports.

In an effort to increase agricultural self-sufficiency, Seychelles has
undertaken steps to make the sector more productive and to provide incentives
to farmers. Much of the state holdings in the agricultural sector have been
privatized, while the role of the government has been reduced to conducting
research and providing infrastructure.

Tourism is one of the most important sectors of the economy, accounting for
approximately 16.6% (2000) of GDP. Employment, foreign earnings, construction,
banking, and commerce are all dominated by tourism-related industries. Tourism
earned $631 million in 1999-2000. About 130,046 tourists visited Seychelles in
2000, 80.1% of them from Europe (United Kingdom, Italy, France, Germany, and
Switzerland).

In 2000, industrial fishing surpassed tourism as the most important foreign
exchange earner. Manufacturing, construction, and industrial fishing, notably
tuna fishing, account for about 28.8% of the GDP. Earnings are growing
annually from licensing fees paid by foreign trawlers fishing in Seychelles'
territorial waters. In 1995, Seychelles saw the privatization of the
Seychelles Tuna Canning Factory, 60% of which was purchased by the American
food company Heinz. Similarly, some port operations have been privatized, a
trend that has been accompanied by a fall in transshipment fees and an
increase in efficiency. Overall, this has sparked a recovery in port services
following a drastic fall in 1994.

Many of the other industrial activities are limited to small scale
manufacturing, particularly agro-processing and import substitution.
Agriculture (including artisanal and forestry), once the backbone of the
economy, now accounts for only around 3% of the GDP. The public sector,
comprising the government and state-owned enterprises, dominates the economy
in terms of employment and gross revenue, employing two-thirds of the labor
force. Public consumption absorbs over one-third of the GDP.

The country’s economy is extremely vulnerable to external shocks. Not only
does it depend on tourism, but it imports over 90% of its total primary and
secondary production inputs. Any decline in tourism quickly translates into a
fall in GDP, a decline in foreign exchange receipts, and budgetary
difficulties. Furthermore, recent changes in the climate have greatly affected
the tuna industry.

Growth slowed in 1998–2001, due to sluggish tourist and tuna sectors. Also,
tight controls on exchange rates and the scarcity of foreign exchange have
impaired short-term economic prospects. The black market value of the
Seychellois rupee is anywhere from two thirds to one half the official
exchange rate. The next few years were also a bit slow due to the worldwide
economic downturn and the fear of flying brought on by September 11, 2001.
More recently though, tourism has roared back at a record pace setting
successive records in 2006 and again in 2007 for number of visitors. The
increased availability of flights to and from the archipelago due in part to
new entrants Emirates and Qatar airlines is also beginning to show. New five
star properties and the devaluation of the currency by nearly 33% by the
Seychelles Government is having a positive influence on the tourism sector as
well. Both at official exchange rates and at purchasing power parity (PPP),
Seychelles remains the richest territory in Africa in terms of GDP per capita
(US$9,440.095 at real exchange rates and US$17,560.062 at PPP 2008 estimate),[1]

Because of economic contraction (the economy declined by about 2% in 2004 and
2005 and lost another 1.4% in 2006 according to the International Monetary
Fund) the country was moving downwards in terms of per capita income. However,
the economy bounced back in 2007, growing by 5.3% due in part to record
tourism numbers and the booming building and offshore industries. The IMF
forecast further growth in 2008 with continuing increase in the GDP per capita.[2]

In October 2008, as tourism and fishing revenue began slowing, the Seychelles
defaulted on a $230 million debt. The International Monetary Fund stepped with
a two-year, $26 million rescue package. The rescue package came with a few
stipulations; The country laid off 1,800 government workers, floated its
currency, lifted foreign exchange controls and sold off state assets.[3] At
the time, the country's $800 million external foreign debt was equivalent to
almost 175 percent of its gross domestic product.[4]

The decision to let the currency trade freely as part of the IMF rescue
package means that Seychelles is the smallest country in the world that has a
completely independent currency - one that is neither pegged, nor an adopted
foreign currency, nor a common currency used within a larger monetary union.
When the Seychellois rupee became freely floated on November 3, 2008, its
value quickly fell drastically, decreasing from eight per U.S. dollar to 16,
effectively doubled the prices of imports.[5]

The rupee traded at an average 19.97 per euro by noon in the capital
Victoria, compared with 11.3421 last week, according to Caroline Abel, head of
monetary analysis and statistics at the Central Bank of Seychelles. It traded
at 15.58 per dollar, from 8.9090, she said. Against the pound, it dropped to
25.02, from 14.3227.

The global recession and piracy in the Indian Ocean hit Seychelles hard in
2009, with the GDP projected to contract by 7.5 percent. However the
government exceeded its fiscal targets, with a primary surplus of 13.4% of GDP
in the first nine months of 2009 according to the IMF. They report expenditure
has been tightly controlled and revenue has held up well despite the difficult
economic environment.[6]

In May 2010 an International Monetary Fund mission visited Seychelles and
concluded the country is making progress. The head of the mission, Mr. Jean Le
Dem, said at the conclusion of the visit[7]:

The economy is recovering from a recession that put real gross domestic
product (GDP) to almost a stand in 2009. Real GDP is projected to grow at 4
percent in 2010, reflecting primarily a rebound in tourism earnings.
Twelve-month inflation, which was negative during the past few months, is
expected to return to about 1 percent by year-end.

In addition to the now booming tourism and building/real estate markets,
Seychelles has renewed its commitment to developing its financial services
sector. Government officials and industry participants believe this could
overtake the tourism industry as the chief pillar of the economy by 2017. The
recent passage of a revised Mutual Fund Act 2007, Securities Act 2007 and
Insurance Act 2007 are meant to be the catalysts to move Seychelles from just
another offshore jurisdiction to a full fledged Offshore Financial Center (OFC).

The Ministry of Finance is responsible for economic decisions and budgetary
policy. A separate Monetary Authority supervises the banking system and
manages the money supply. Although foreign banks operate branches in
Seychelles, the government owns the two local banks—the Development Bank of
Seychelles, which mobilizes resources to fund development programs, and the
Seychelles Saving Bank, a bank for savings and current accounts.

The Seychelles International Business Authority (SIBA) is charged with
overseeing the quickly growing offshore industry. Seychelles is home to a
number of offshore incorporation specialists which specialize in offshore
company formation, mutual funds, hedge funds and captive insurance.

New detailed studies and exploration shows that the Seychelles potentially
have large off-shore petroleum reservoirs which are yet to be discovered.
Drills have proven the presence of:

Oil-prone source rocks containing Type II kerogen in coaly deltaic shales
of the Middle Jurassic and in marine shales of the Upper Jurassic;
Mixed source rocks bearing Type II/III kerogen in deltaic marine shales of
the Lower Cretaceous that are II correlative of oil-generating shales in Somalia;
Gas-prone sources containing Type I kerogen in Upper Triassic fluvial
shales and Paleocene marine shales, the latter being correlative of oil and
gas generating source rocks of the Deep Continental Shelf trend of the Bombay
High Oil Province offshore west India;
Evidence of hydrocarbon generation and migration with well shows, such as
0.7 ml benzene in DST-1 of Reith Bank-1, 10,010 ppm of 99.8% n-C4 headspace
gas coincident with as small fault in the same well and 20% petrol vapours at
an immature level of volcanics in Owen Bank A-1;
Clastic reservoirs with measured porosities up to 22% in the Early-Middle
Jurassic; and
Sealing lithologies occur both locally in syn-rift, and regionally in
post-rift sequences. An extensive seismic dataset, plus a variety of remote
sensing data have been collected which bolster the well data by confirming the
presence of:
A variety of trapping styles, dominated by tilted fault blocks,
stratigraphic pinchouts and reefs;
Multiple heating events, with the principal event post-dating trap
formation; and
Hydrocarbon generation and migration with the presence of: a) numerous
DHIs on seismic, including gas chimneys, flat spots, bright spots, phase
changes and chemosynthetic reefs; b) gas sniffer anomalies, involving
ethane/iso-butane in the southeast and propane/normal butane/total hydrocarbon
in the north and northeast; c) UV fluorescence anomalies, especially over the
wells and in the southeast; and d) 4 types of beach-stranded tar that
correlate to the local source rock stratigraphy.

However, to date all exploratory and stratigraphic test wells (a total of 9
since the 1970s) in the Seychelles have failed to find commercial
hydrocarbons. The most recent wildcat by Enterprise Oil in 1995 detected gas
but failed to find hydrocarbons.

Several oil and gas exploration companies are active in the Seychelles
offshore. These include East African Exploration (EAX), Avana Petroleum,
Petroquest and WHL Energy.

Beginning at the turn of the millennium the Seychelles Petroleum Company
(SEPEC) started to develop the first fleet of modern petroleum double-hull
tankers (five vessels), which was completed by late 2007/early 2008 with the
possibility to build more in the near future. The Seychelles President claims
that this has opened the door to a new industry for his country and encouraged
economic growth by further removing over-reliance on traditional trades like
fisheries and tourism, which is now falling rapidly as the country's main
income but nevertheless, has experienced significant growth in recent years.

GDP:
official exchange rate - $0,921 billion (2008)
purchasing power parity - $1,864 billion (2008)

GDP - real growth rate:
+4,0% (2010 est.)
-0,8% (2008)

GDP - per capita:
official exchange rate - $12 068 (2007)
purchasing power parity - $21 653 (2007)

GDP - composition by sector:
agriculture: 3,2%
industry: 30,4%
services: 66,4% (2005 estimate)

Population below poverty line:
NA%

Household income or consumption by percentage share:
lowest 10%: NA%
highest 10%: NA%

Inflation rate (consumer prices):
31,8% (2009)
3,2% (2010 est.)

Labor force:
39,560 (2006)
26,000 (1996)

Labor force - by occupation:
services: 74%, industry: 23%, agriculture: 3% (2006)
services: 57%, industry: 19%, government: 14%, fishing, agriculture, and
forestry: 10% (1989)

Unemployment rate:
2% (2006 est.)

Budget:
revenues: $183,9 million
expenditures: $195,8 million (2009 est.)

Industries:
fishing, tourism, processing of coconuts and vanilla, coir (coconut fiber)
rope, boat building, printing, furniture; beverages

Industrial production growth rate:
-2% (2009 est.)

Agriculture - products:
coconuts, cinnamon, vanilla, sweet potatoes, cassava (tapioca), bananas;
poultry; tuna

Exports:
$495 million (2008 est.)
$312 million (1998 est.)

Exports - commodities:
canned tuna, frozen fish, cinnamon bark, copra, petroleum products (reexports)

Exports - partners:
UK 21.1%, France 19.1%, Mauritius 10.1%, Japan 7.9%, Italy 7.8%, Netherlands
6% (2008)
UK 27.6%, France 15.8%, Spain 12.7%, Japan 8.6%, Italy 7.5%, Germany 5.6% (2004)

Imports:
$658 million (2009 est.)
$460 million (2005 est.)

Imports - commodities:
machinery and equipment, foodstuffs, petroleum products

Imports - partners:
Saudi Arabia 17.2%, Singapore 12.2%, France 10.1%, Spain 8%, Germany 7%, India
6.9%, South Africa 4.6% (2008)

Debt - external:
$1,250 billion (2009 est.)
$0,276 billion (2005 est.)

Economic aid - recipient:
$16,4 million (1995)

Currency:
1 Seychelles rupee (SCR or SRe) = 100 cents

Exchange rates:
Seychelles rupees (SCR) per US$1 – 11.85 (May 2010), 16.7 (February 2009), 8.0
(2008), 5.8 (2007), 5.5 (2006), 5.3 (1999), 4.7 (1995)

Seychelles rupees (SCR) per Pound Sterling £1 –- 17.50 (May 2010), 24.11
(February 2009)

Seychelles rupees (SCR) per Euro €1 –- 15.04 (May 2010), 21.55 (February 2009)

Fiscal year:
calendar year

See also:

http://www.gfmag.com/gdp-data-country-reports/183-the-seychelles-gdp-country-report.html#axzz1pKREXVnH

http://www.dmoz.org/Regional/Africa/Seychelles/Business_and_Economy/Economic_Development/

http://seychellestour.com/seychelles-guide/economy/

http://www.trademap.org/open_access/Product_SelCountry_TS.aspx

So--in effect--my original assertion is a bit specious, but pragmatically
accurate when looking at the whole picture.

So, PPYPOSTFU!
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[References]

1. World Bank. "2005 International Comparison Program". Retrieved 2008-04-07.
2. Report for Selected Countries and Subjects - Seychelles.
3. Prasso, Sheridan. "Paradise goes bankrupt". Fortune, March 25, 2009.
Accessed May 19, 2010.
4. "Daily Brief Economics and Financial Market Commentary". Global
Economic Monitor, November 3, 2008. Accessed May 19, 2010.
5. Theunissen, Garth. "Seychelles Rupee Plunges After Central Bank Drops
Currency Peg". Bloomberg, November 3, 2008. Accessed May 19, 2010.
6. IMF Executive Board Approves US$31.1 Million Extended Fund Facility
Arrangement for Seychelles, Completes Final Review Under Stand-By Arrangement.
IMF Press Release, December 22, 2009. Accessed May 19, 2010.
7. IMF Mission Finds Seychelles’ New Three-Year Economic Program on Track
IMF Press Release, May 10, 2010. Accessed May 19, 2010.
8. IMF World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010
9. CIA - World Factbook - Seychelles