non-guessing

[Karl Schlag]

dear decision theory specialists

i have this new paper. i propose how to process information in an
arguably objective fashion.
it is called non-guessing as the uncertain world is not treated as a
random world with some subjective distribution over possible worlds.
there are axioms, it is more foundational than the paper posted last year.
it embeds unbiased hypothesis testing, absolute expediency and improving.

the axiomatization in the appendix can also be reinterpreted as social
choice.
i axiomatize acceptable actions, not the most preferred actions. this
keeps flexibility to select how you want among the acceptable.

did i overlook anyone's paper? is it too long or too short at places? i
will be submitting within 2 weeks. just cleaning up typos and the
english and waiting for your comments.

lots of open questions that i cannot tackle on my own, like
understanding being more informative (as in Blackwell) when there are
more than two states.

hope to see many of you at the european conferences this year
greetings, karl

Schlag, Karl H., A "Non-Guessing" Theory for How to Process Information
(June 26, 2026).
Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=7020658


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Karl Schlag
Professor

Department of Economics email: karl....@univie.ac.at
University of Vienna landline: +43-1-4277-37437
Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 mobile: +43-664-8175934
1090 Vienna, Austria fax: +43-1-4277-9374
room: 5.641 (fifth floor)

http://homepage.univie.ac.at/karl.schlag/