Races Since Last Claim

[Dave]

Does a horse coming off a claim really have an advantage over other
horses?

In this study we look at claiming sprints from 2009 for older horses
on fast tracks (no turf).

Here is a link to the statistics:
http://www.practicalhandicapping.com/desktop/package/PublicImages/CS-Races%20Since%20Claim.txt

As you can see, there is a pretty clear flow in the win percentage and
impact value (IV) columns. Horses claimed in their last race or two
are certainly win more races. In addition, the also return more money
($Net).

However, horses that have been unclaimed in 9 or more races returned
about the same $net although at much higher odds.

[jmul98a]

It also seems to matter the rank of the trainer:

WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1 1 357 103 28.9 $1.88 2.21 1.04 1.30
1 2 226 51 22.6 $1.39 1.71 0.97 1.10
1 3 240 44 18.3 $1.51 1.40 0.88 1.01
1 4 200 28 14.0 $1.52 1.06 0.86 0.94
1 5 186 21 11.3 $1.28 0.85 0.74 0.79
1 6 159 14 8.8 $1.42 0.66 0.65 0.71
1 7 117 14 12.0 $1.27 0.99 1.03 0.96
1 8 67 4 6.0 $0.96 0.54 0.59 0.58
1 9 103 6 5.8 $0.94 0.60 0.60 0.60

This is races since last claim and rank of trainer. Clearly good
trainers who claimed recently do better.
Joe

On Apr 3, 6:45 am, Dave <daveschwr...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Does a horse coming off a claim really have an advantage over other
> horses?
>
> In this study we look at claiming sprints from 2009 for older horses
> on fast tracks (no turf).
>

> Here is a link to the statistics:http://www.practicalhandicapping.com/desktop/package/PublicImages/CS-...

[Dave]

Apparently you cannot set the text to courier here.

I have added a page for the stats pertaining to this discussion...

http://groups.google.com/group/dave-schwartzs-world-of-horse-racing/web/races-since-last-claim