RELEASE: Murphy, Casar Introduce Bicameral Bill To Ban Prediction Markets On Government Actions, War, and Events Ripe For Rigging
Press (Murphy)
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
March 17, 2026
CONTACT
Deni Kamper
MURPHY, CASAR INTRODUCE BICAMERAL BILL TO BAN PREDICTION MARKETS ON GOVERNMENT ACTIONS, WAR, AND EVENTS RIPE FOR RIGGING
LEGISLATION IS CO-SPONSORED BY SENATOR JOHN HICKENLOOPER AND REPRESENTATIVES GABE AMO, YASSAMIN ANSARI, RASHIDA TLAIB
WASHINGTON - U.S. Senator Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and U.S. Representative Greg Casar (D-Texas-35) on Tuesday unveiled the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act, bicameral legislation to ban wagering on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome. Because many of these “event contracts” are traded on offshore prediction markets, the bill also amends existing laws against illegal gambling to enforce these rules by shutting down payment systems to illegal online platforms and imposing criminal penalties for people in the U.S. who promote, manage, own, or supervise these businesses domestically. The bill is co-sponsored by U.S. Senator John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) and Representatives Yassamin Ansari (D-Ariz.-03), Gabe Amo (D-R.I.-01) and Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.-12) in the House.
Recent suspicious activity on these prediction markets has raised serious questions about whether Trump administration insiders are using government secrets to make significant personal profit by placing anonymous bets on these platforms. Hours before both the initial strikes on Iran and the extraction of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, several prediction market users placed huge bets predicting the strikes and cashed out for hundreds of thousands of dollars. These prediction markets offer powerful government officials a perverse incentive to pursue policies that are in their personal financial interest, cratering public trust and forcing Americans to suffer bad policies enacted for personal gain. New polling from Data for Progress reveals a majority of voters – including 61% of independents, and 57% of Republicans – support banning wagers on potential government actions, while some 80% of voters oppose betting markets on terrorism or political assassinations.
The opportunities for rigging prediction markets are not limited to government actions and upheaval: any event where insiders know or can control the outcome in advance is ripe for abuse. Notably, prediction market bets on this year’s Super Bowl Halftime Show that resulted in huge payouts were likely driven by leaks and inside knowledge. If prediction market CEOs succeed in their radical goal to “financialize everything,” they will usher in a new dystopian reality, in which everything in our lives is commodified. The BETS OFF Act would put a stop to these immoral bets and create real consequences for bad actors profiting off of death and corruption.
“There’s no getting around the fact that any prediction market where somebody knows or controls the outcome of a bet is ripe for corruption,” said Murphy. “Even worse, prediction markets are also an avenue by which government decisions get influenced by who's making money off them, and that should be unforgivable to the American public. When events that involve good and evil, life and death become just another financial product, morality no longer matters and the soul of America is fundamentally corrupted. This bill will stop the transformation of our society into a rigged video game casino by banning the prediction markets that allow the powerful insiders to get rich by commodifying every part of our lives.”
“America is facing a crisis of corruption, and today’s bill is about cracking down on one of the most dangerous new forms of corruption infecting our government,” said Casar. “Too often, prediction markets are becoming yet another place for rich and powerful people to cash in on insider information. This bill will put a stop to that."
"It’s common sense: people shouldn’t be allowed to bet on war or other government actions. Period," said Hickenlooper.
“Prediction markets sell themselves as a place where everyone has an equal shot at winning big. The reality is they’re rigged against ordinary people and ripe for abuse – especially when betting on government actions,” said Ansari. “When the President and national security officials are making life and death decisions, the last thing they should be considering is whether they can personally profit. This bill puts an end to that corruption and disturbing national security risk.”
“The people entrusted with our nation’s most sensitive secrets and our service members’ lives should not be able to gamble on outcomes they influence,” said Amo. “It’s a blatant conflict of interest and the height of unethical behavior. I’m proud to introduce the BETS Off Act to stop betting markets from facilitating powerful politicians and their pawns from putting their personal enrichment over the public’s trust.”
"No one should be able to gamble on death and destruction, especially people connected to Trump with insider knowledge,” said Tlaib. “It's sickening that people just made millions of dollars by betting on the U.S. attacks on Iran and Venezuela. Congress must ban profiting from war and war crimes."
The bill is endorsed by: VoteVets, American Economic Liberties Project, Win Without War, Americans for Financial Reform, Public Citizen, Groundwork Collaborative, and Center for International Policy Advocacy.
“National security decisions should never be influenced by people trying to cash in on war, terrorism, or political violence. Turning events like these into gambling markets is deeply corrosive and risks creating incentives that put American lives at stake. It is obscene for anyone to profit from wagers tied to decisions that could mean life or death for our troops and our fellow Americans. We applaud Senator Murphy and Congressman Casar for leading this effort to put a stop to this corrupt, anti-American practice, and hope all Members will come together to pass it now," said Mary Kaszynski, Director of Government Relations at VoteVets.
"No one should be able to profit from bets on terrorism, assassination, or important government actions. Supporters of prediction markets will tell you they're forecasting tools that harness the wisdom of crowds, but in practice they are corroding public trust in institutions. They also create dangerous incentives to manipulate events with life-and-death consequences. The BETS OFF Act builds on existing gambling laws to ensure that such immoral conduct is also illegal-- and punishable with fines and jail time," said Laurel Kilgour, Research Manager at the American Economic Liberties Project.
"Prediction markets are taking the corruption that was already rife in U.S. foreign policy to a new and outrageous level," said Eric Eikenberry, Government Relations Director at Win Without War. "It's bad enough that Trump and his cronies gamble with our lives by launching a fresh illegal war every month -- and it's so much worse if government insiders are rushing to turn a personal profit from these terrible decisions. Congress has to snuff it out, now."
"Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket pretend to be in a league above gambling. They call themselves "financial futures." That is plain and simple a term without a distinction. Betting on when Iran will be invaded or, in the case of Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei, when a political leader will be eliminated, is flat-out gambling. It is time prediction markets be recognized for what they really are. Sen. Murphy's BETS OFF Act does precisely that by making what is illegal for gambling in casinos also illegal for prediction markets. Events that are off-limits for gambling, such as bets on war and assassination, must be off-limits for bets on prediction markets. The BETS OFF Act would end immoral and corrupt betting on political events and has the solid endorsement of Public Citizen," said Craig Holman, Ph.D., Government Affairs Lobbyist, Public Citizen.
“Unauthorized, unregulated prediction markets allow profiting off of death and destruction and invite even more corruption into a system that most believe is rigged to begin with. We enthusiastically support Senator Murphy’s leadership to rein in unfettered prediction markets,” said Alex Jacquez, Chief of Policy and Advocacy, Groundwork Action
For a one-pager on the bill click here. For full bill text click here.
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