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GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter that turns complexity into clarity - and clarity into confidence. |
Here’s what we’ve got for you today: |
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Nexo is back in the U.S. - and new clients get 30 days of Wealth Club Premier perks! Higher yields, lower borrowing rates, and crypto cashback - start here. |
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WHAT WE'RE WATCHING THIS WEEK 👀 |
ICYMI: Every Monday morning, the Milk Road crew hops on a call → argues about what matters → and relays it all to you here. |
So what’re we seeing this week? |
In short: it looks like everything wants to rip, but one thing is holding it all hostage. |
(Surprise, surprise: it's Iran. Still.) |
The nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran failed (again), and this time Trump responded by slapping a full blockade on the country. |
As of 10am ET today, the U.S. is shutting down Iran's imports and exports. |
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Iran makes a nice chunk of change from shipping - tolls, trade, moving goods through its waterways. That's now being choked off. |
Any ship that pays a toll to Iran risks being detained by U.S. forces in the region. |
Our macro guy John didn't mince words on the call: "This is horseshit. They [Iran] have nothing. They can't do anything." |
His frustration: the U.S. has offered deal after deal, but Iran keeps stalling. And the longer it drags on, the worse the damage gets. |
Where it’s getting increasingly scary? |
The oil production shortfall (meaning how much oil the world is missing because of this conflict) has hit 400M barrels. |
That's already double what it was at the end of March. |
Countries are hoarding resources, rationing energy, and sending tankers to the Gulf of America to buy whatever crude they can get. 👇 |
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But the U.S. doesn't have enough excess supply to fill the gap. John's estimate? The world needs to cut oil usage by about 20% to make up for the loss. |
That's a massive number. |
And if we don't get a firm resolution by the start of May (17 days from now) he thinks things get really ugly. |
Here's the weird part though… |
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WHAT WE'RE WATCHING THIS WEEK (P2) 👀 |
Amidst all of this - the markets are… fine? |
The Mag 7 (the seven biggest tech stocks) holding steady, while the S&P 500 has been green over the past 7 trading days. |
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John's read is that everything (gold, silver, the S&P, Bitcoin) is sitting at a decision point - like a coiled spring. |
Markets want to go higher. They're trying to price in a resolution, but it hasn't happened yet. |
"The whole world and all markets are hyperfixated on this one thing," he said. "If it goes in a favorable direction, you'll see a lot of positive momentum. But if it doesn't, we could break down." |
So yeah. Vibes are tense. |
But while the world waits, big money isn't sitting still… |
Tom Lee continues to scoop up ETH, Michael Saylor continues to buy BTC hand over fist… it’s basically a weekly ritual at this point. |
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What's wild about Saylor is how he's doing it. |
He's figured out how to raise bull-market-sized money during a bear market, and has barely missed a single week in the last few months. |
As John put it: "He's like a clock who comes up with a billion dollars a week." |
And it's not just the Saylor… |
Charles Schwab recently opened a waitlist for clients to buy spot Bitcoin. Morgan Stanley launched their spot crypto ETF products, and now has 16,000 investment advisors going out and pitching them to clients. |
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Even Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan who famously called Bitcoin a "decentralized Ponzi scheme," has flipped - he went on TV and said blockchains are now a better infrastructure for the financial world. |
The meta-story in crypto right now? An institutional bull run is building, while retail apathy only continues to grow. |
Every day, investors are sitting on their hands - but behind the scenes, the biggest financial players on the planet are building on-ramps, launching products, and deploying capital at a pace we’ve never seen before. |
(By the time retail wakes up, the pipes will already be laid.) |
So that's what we're watching right now: |
A world coiled tight, waiting on global conflicts to simmer down - all while a wall of institutional money builds up behind the scenes. |
Long story longer… |
Hold onto your butts! |
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