Fwd: [Groton] Spreadsheet Correction Shows Higher Override 25 YR Potential Costs

[E Lazaris]



Hello,

As we are days away from the override election, I wanted to pass along a corrected spreadsheet from the Town Manager which has not been publicly distributed yet, only to members of town committees. I would urge you to read this and the true long-term cost of the override. The error is astoundingly large. Since this was brought to light by a resident, not the Town Manager, a call to the TM would be recommended if there is any doubt. 

The highlight is:

previous version had an error in it that mistakenly made it seem the 25 year cost of the override for the average home ($695k) was only about $14k instead of the $42k the new spreadsheet shows. 

Please vote based on accurate data and the understanding of how much this override will truly cost. 

Thank you.

Elena

Begin forwarded message:

From: 'Paul Fitzgerald' via TalkAboutGroton <talkabo...@googlegroups.com>
Date: March 30, 2024 at 6:10:02 PM EDT
To: TalkAboutGroton <talkabo...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: [Groton] Spreadsheet Correction Shows Higher Override 25 YR Potential Costs
Reply-To: Paul Fitzgerald <pwfitz...@mac.com>



  On Friday, the Town Manager sent this corrected spreadsheet out to all members of the Select Board, Finance Committee and to the Chair of the School Committee. A previous version had an error in it that mistakenly made it seem the 25 year cost of the override for the average home ($695k) was only about $14k instead of the $42k the new spreadsheet shows. I thank the Town Manager for reissuing and promulgating the corrected spreadsheet.

  The incorrect spreadsheet was posted on Facebook on  March 15th by the Chair of the School Committee in an attempt to refute my projection of the $42k cost of the override over 25 years for the average home. I pointed out the spreadsheet's formula error to the Chair of the School Committee and to the Town Manager but no acknowledgement of the $14k vs $42k cost error was made until I met with the Town Manager on March 22nd. He apologized for the mistake, and then sent out an apology and correction email to the Chair of the School Committee. The Chair of the School Committee said my numbers did not "reconcile" with the Town Manager's numbers and still would not issue a correction. Therefore, I asked the Town Manager to update his spreadsheet so the numbers would reconcile and the Chair of the School Committee could issue a retraction and correction. As that retraction and correction has not yet happened from what I've seen, and with the override election just days away, I am posting the corrected Town Manager's spreadsheet myself below.

  I want to be clear that the Town Manager is not comfortable officially forecasting beyond 3 years. I agree there are other revenue factors such as excise taxes, meals taxes, or new growth for example that can spread out the burden of an override. But there are also new services, such as a bigger fire department that could be needed to support all the additional calls caused by that new growth and that would increase expenses. For me though, assuming all else is equal, and projecting a simple 2.5% tax increase every year is a reasonable forecasting method. It allows people to see what the tax impact of the override could be beyond the official three year Town projection. At a minimum it will be about a $32k cost because the $1,349 tax increase won't go away and will be in effect forever. I project taxes will continue to go up and the override cost will be close to $42k after 25 years. 

  Does someone have a better way of forecasting long-term override costs?

Paul Fitzgerald

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