Modelrisk Vose

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Natalí Stibb

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Aug 4, 2024, 2:06:21 PM8/4/24

to critgambsawnu

TheBeta-PERT methodology allows to parametrize a generalized Beta distribution based on expert opinion regardinga pessimistic estimate (minimum value), a most likely estimate (mode), and an optimistic estimate (maximum value). The betaPERT function incorporates two methods ofcalculating the parameters of a Beta-PERT distribution, designated "classic" and "vose".

The Beta-PERT methodology was developed in the context of Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). Based on a pessimistic estimate (minimum value), a most likely estimate (mode), and an optimistic estimate (maximum value), typically derived through expert elicitation, the parameters of a Beta distribution can be calculated. The Beta-PERT distribution is used in stochastic modeling and risk assessment studies to reflect uncertainty regarding specific parameters.

The mc2d package provides the probability density function, cumulative distribution function, quantile function and random number generation function for the PERT distribution, parametrized by the "vose" method.