Cliffside Thursday crapshoot: rolling the dice for wind.
mcoppock
Hike and fly paragliding is an act of faith. Each paragliding weather app/prediction model has its acolytes. Optimists pick the ones with favorable wind direction and speed. Pessimists wonder if they should stay home. The unfortunate reality is that wind prediction resolution at the granular level of the Cliffside ridges and south facing slopes, and the Cliffside venturi is precarious in any model.
So, about those predictions. RASP winds at inversion top in am were predicted 20 knots E. Meteoblue predicted 5-7 mph E NE with gusts 10 to 15mph E until noon, then ramping up to 20 mph in early pm. The MM5 remarkably showed 15-20 mph winds at inversion top in early am, just as experienced, and 10 mph E NE at ridgetop until noon, so this was reassuring. The act of faith was that there was a potential wind window that would allow launching between 11:00 and 12:00. The potent cold front left less moisture than expected in Cliffside area, and the inversion was just establishing, so visibility was predicted to be unlimited. Indeed: Adams, Hood, and Jeff all were resplendent in new white cloaks. The Columbia was completely clear of fog. The meteograms of Windy, Meteoblue all showed high cloud at 11K until 10 am, then clearing. This was exactly what happened: allowing heating of south facing slopes prior to launch. At launch, there was some N in the E, indicating that the flight plan should have initial S direction to avoid rotor in the bowl just east of launch. Predicted max vario around noon to 1 pm was 1.2m/s below inversion.
Mountain launch set up at ~11:30. Initial check list run through. Then “Criticals” checklist completed. Tree below launch not shaking hard, wind sound in trees acceptable, grass activity just right, build wall, A’s, C’s, prepare to abort if gust, check wing overhead, turn, one last visual, then go. Launch into lull successful. Give a wide berth to bowl to left. Vario -3.0 m/s in lee. Mild turbulence as expected, descending through thermal cap. When clear of lee, indicated by increased E wind speed component, arc upriver to south facing scree slopes where vario averaging 0.5 -1.0 m/s. Flow. Deer running up trails snaking through pinnacles, flapping ravens sinking ahead, where is that thermal that I can smell (sun baked rock, even in January)? Figure eights in zeros along the wall. Stunning light reflecting off the river. Weight shift away. Watch glide to LZ. Remember tailwind L/D benefit. Too soon, circling to an uneventful landing in the lower LZ.
Later: up to launch, where midafternoon lift allowed wonderful thermalling with David, Carlos, Jacob and others. 1.5m/s max vario with thermals topping out at ~1600’. Sharing thermal with Ravens. Interesting recurrent lift cores over cliffs to S of launch and farther out toward river. Average vario +0.1m/s. Turning in thermal lift in January was a mellow end to an interesting day, and it was wonderful to talk with old friends.
Items to remember; don’t follow a flapping raven, trust but verify your favorite prediction models, and Wind is King to successful hike and fly. Have faith. Or alternatively, forget all the above complexity and analytics, and simply show up and fly. Be ready to hike back down irrespective! In conclusion; for Thursday’s hike and fly crapshoot, the model predictions were remarkably accurate and stable throughout the days leading up to Thursday. And best of all, the wind window was as predicted, and rolling the dice did not turn up snake eyes.
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Travis Potter
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Dirk Larson
On Jan 16, 2021, at 7:35 AM, Travis Potter <second...@gmail.com> wrote:
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Luke Christian
On Jan 16, 2021, at 06:40, mcoppock <mcopp...@gmail.com> wrote:
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ixtup
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Bob Horning
Bob Horning
503-319-2007