thanks for the reply Nick
looks like my private key is being offered, but it never receives a response from the server (so my ssh process starts trying other authentication methods). I don't see anything wrong in the virtualbox log for my machine, and of course I can't access the server's logs since I have no default password (I also can't paste my public key into authorized_users, and running ssh-copy-id just queries me for the password).
debug1: Connecting to 127.0.0.1 [127.0.0.1] port 2222.
debug1: Connection established.
debug1: identity file C:\\Users\\dean/.ssh/id_rsa type 0
...
debug1: Next authentication method: publickey
debug1: Offering public key: RSA SHA256:NtnfarwvOAT2yFyJFeQyTURE/ap1+sHmOzfBIGAeqDo C:\\Users\\dean/.ssh/id_rsa
debug3: send_pubkey_test
debug3: send packet: type 50
debug2: we sent a publickey packet, wait for reply
debug3: receive packet: type 51