Empire Total War 2 How To Install

[Senaqua Hildreth]

Oversix million residential units in New York use fuels for heating, with over five million also using them for hot-water heating, and over four million using them for cooking. While most of those homes use natural gas, more than 1.7 million New Yorkers use propane, heating oil or kerosene1 for heat, with over a million using those fuels for hot water as well.

In some cases, the costs of heat pump installation and building shell weatherization are high and will place a substantial economic burden on homeowners, even with state and federal subsidies, as shown by the following numbers:

State policy may drive homeowners to instead buy more energy-intensive electric resistance furnaces that have lower upfront costs but cost more to operate. Even with higher annual energy costs, it will take six to 58 years for total costs to equal the cost of a heat pump installation plus home weatherization.

Whether homeowners choose heat pumps or electric resistance heaters, the future of oil and propane distribution firms appears dire. Based on their respective expected operational lives, propane furnaces may be eliminated between 2047 and 2050, while oil furnaces would be eliminated between 2056 and 2063.

Because there are a variety of out-of-home uses of propane, the propane industry will not completely disappear in New York, although it will dwindle and need to consolidate. With fewer alternative uses for heating oil, the heating oil delivery industry may be eliminated entirely.

The global effect of the costly program of compulsory electrification will be a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of less than 0.05 percent. In choosing this approach, New York has closed the door on a more affordable means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, clean fuel standards that promote biodiesel and renewable propane.

Currently, natural gas is the most commonly used source for residential space heating in New York, serving just under 4.5 million homes, primarily in urban areas. Heating oil is the second-most common, used in 1.4 million homes in both rural and urban areas. Propane is less common, with just over 330,000 users, and coal is used in just over 16,000 homes (Figure 1).

Only 13 percent of all New York residential units are heated with either electricity or solar energy. Considering individual counties, the highest rate of home heat electrification is currently found in Clinton County, at 32 percent, with the lowest rate of electric heat being only five percent in Richmond County (Figure 2).

Collectively, the proposed prohibition will require the compulsory electrification of 6.2 million residential units across the state, including 3.7 million owner-occupied homes that use a fossil fuel source for heat.

Heating oil is used by 19 percent of New York households (1.4 million homes). It is most commonly used on the east side of the state (Figure 3) including high use rates in the North Country and the Adirondacks. But it is also common in the Hudson Valley and on Long Island. On Long Island, at least, the use of oil is associated with a historical use of coal, with many homeowners having switched from coal to oil in the absence of a buildout of natural gas delivery lines.6

Approximately 330,000 households in New York use propane for indoor space heating (4 percent of residential units),8 and around 270,000 households use it for hot water heating.9 Other residential uses of propane include indoor cooking and clothes drying as well as outdoor space heating and cooking. As many as 44 percent of U.S. households own gas grills,10 which would translate into over 3 million households in NY.

Propane is a highly versatile fuel, containing about two-and-a-half times the energy by volume as natural gas.11 A byproduct of natural gas processing and petroleum refining, it is an approved clean fuel recommended by the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments.12 When used to replace gasoline as a vehicle fuel it reduces greenhouse gas emissions by nearly 13 percent.[xiii] If spilled, it is not harmful to soil, surface water, or groundwater,14 and if inhaled, it is non-toxic to humans, birds, and other animals. In addition to its residential use, propane has many industrial and agricultural applications.

The use of propane for residential space heating is not distributed evenly around the state (Figure 4). In many counties less than five percent of households heat with propane. In five counties 20 percent or more do. Schuyler County has the highest rate at 27 percent, with Hamilton, Orleans and Yates Counties at 23 percent and Oswego County 20 percent.

Notably, propane usage is most common in low population density counties. No high population density county has above 3 percent use of propane for home heating, while in low population density counties use rates of 10 to 15 percent are common, and several counties are above 20 percent (See Appendix).

Propane is most commonly used in counties where the median income is below the statewide median. All counties with high propane use rates are below the state median income, and the highest-income counties all have low propane use rates (See Appendix).

It bears noting that the costs of a compulsory transition to all-electric heating and appliances will be particularly burdensome in low population-density counties, where homeowners have the lowest median incomes.

Heat pumps draw heat from the source (air, ground, or sometimes water) and transfer that to the air inside the home. Electricity is used primarily to operate the fan that moves the air, which takes much less energy than heating elements.

Because the temperature below the surface of the ground is the same year-round, and normally warmer than the ambient air temperature in a cold-climate winter, ground-source (or geothermal) heat pumps are generally more efficient than air-source heat pumps.[xvi] While air-source heat pumps can draw warmth even from bitterly cold air, efficiency declines at low temperatures and in extreme cold may require a backup heat source to ensure the house remains comfortably warm.[xvii]

Total installed cost (equipment plus installation) for an air-source heat pump is estimated at between $6,800 and $8,600, with prices expected to stay around that high end in the future.[xviii] Ductless mini-split total installed costs are estimated at around $2,000 with prices remaining steady in years to come.[xix] And total installed costs for ground-source heat pumps are estimated at around $14,000 to $23,000, with costs rising slightly in the future.[xx]

As a beginning point, then, air- and ground-source heat pumps cost in the range of 4.5 to 15 times as much as an electric resistance furnace, but the total upfront costs are even higher because the state recommends combining heat pump installation with building shell upgrades.

The New York Public Service Commission categorizes these shell upgrades as either comfort shells or code shells. A comfort shell includes sealing air leaks and adding attic insulation. A code shell requires meeting the requirements of the New York State Energy Conservation Construction Code, with stricter standards for wall and roof insulation and more energy-efficient windows.[xxi] A code shell will make for a more weathertight home and reduce heating costs but will have a higher upfront cost.

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) has estimated the cost of heat pump installation and shell upgrades for a pre-1980s home in upstate New York that currently uses oil heat (Table 1).[xxii] This may not reflect the full cost for older homes that may need more intensive shell upgrades, such as the 800,000 owner-occupied homes built before 1940.[xxiii] The estimate is an incremental cost, or the cost above and beyond what a homeowner would spend just putting in a replacement oil heater.

Because of the high cost of heat pump installation, a variety of federal, state, and utility-based subsidies have been developed to incentivize homeowners to choose them. The Federal Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit offers up to $1,200 annually for energy efficiency improvements and up to $2,000 for heat pumps.25 New York offers a tax credit of up to $5,000 on ground-source heat pumps (which functions as a subsidy to the relatively well-off. The state also offers the Comfort Home Program26 providing shell improvement assistance of between $1,000 and $4,000.

With a code upgrade, NYSERDA predicts annual energy savings of $2,400 per year. A homeowner who invests in a code shell upgrade and receives the maximum subsidies will need between two and 17 years to recoup the costs (not including financing costs).

The expected operational life of air-source heat pumps is around 15 years, and from eight to 21 years for ground-source heat pumps. This means that homeowners whose costs are on the high end may not recover the costs for their heat pumps and building shell upgrades before they need to spend thousands on new heat pumps (although they will not have the shell upgrade costs the second time around).

However, most electric heating is in the southern United States, where lower heating demand means less electricity is used.[37] In New York, especially in its colder regions, higher heating demand will mean greater electricity use, so the incremental energy cost to homeowners could be well over $700 per year.

But conservatively assuming just an extra $700 per year for electricity, it would take a homeowner six years to spend as much as the minimum expected outlay for a heat pump and comfort shell upgrade. To equal the maximum cost of a heat pump with code shell upgrade would take over 58 years.

At the policy level, higher electrical demand would require even more electricity production than currently predicted. Because the state plans to eliminate gas-fired generators for electricity production, replacing them largely with intermittent wind and solar, the state already faces a gap in winter energy production of up to 10 percent of its needs.[38] New York has no defined plan for filling that gap, and widespread use of electric resistance furnaces would exacerbate it.

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