Prediction markets for tactical guidance

[Arto Bendiken]

This has been driving me nuts lately: there is a relevant
science-fiction story, most likely not a novel but a novella, that I
remember reading but cannot recall the author nor title for, and that
seemingly no amount of googling turns up.

Possibly one of you gents will immediately know it based on the
following sketched outline, especially since it was perhaps originally
a recommend from one of you (I'm looking at you, Mike):

Earth is under attack from unknown extraterrestrials, who keep sending
these invading battleships in the form of asteroids (?). The previous
four or five (?) waves of invasion have been successfully defeated in
Earth orbit, at a not small cost, but things look dire when yet one
more shows up after a pause of some years.

The tactical team sent up to orbit to counter the newest invasion must
enter the alien asteroid and plant a nuke in a strategic location to
take it out. Few members of such teams have survived previous
missions, but previous teams have nonetheless succeeded in their
counteroffensives. The aliens' countermeasures get more advanced each
time, though.

The team has one advantage that is, to me, the whole point of the
story: their mission is broadcast live to the whole planet, and they
can draw on the domain expertise of billions of people in the form of
a global prediction market where anyone can post a tactical hypothesis
or suggestion and others can upvote it (with money?).

The team has a live HUD scoreboard of the top-voted suggestions--the
"wisdom of the crowd". For example, the team can see advice such as
that "high probability that the guard robot in front of you is just a
decoy" in near real-time as the prediction market suggestions are
tallied and ranked from millions of participants.

Anyone remember this story? It'd make for a great game scenario, and
prediction-market-based tactical guidance is quite a feasible C&C
addition to be considered.

PS. If one of you actually remembers this, this'll in and of itself be
a demonstration of the wisdom of crowds. Admittedly the sample of the
crowd over here is pretty tiny, but hey, we're going for quality not
quantity...

--
Arto Bendiken | @bendiken | http://ar.to

[Mike Gogulski]

Very interesting, but not a story I can recall, so I think you must have heard it from someone else.

i'd very much like to read it though.

[Arto Bendiken]

On Thu, Oct 8, 2015 at 7:37 PM, Mike Gogulski <mi...@gogulski.com> wrote:
> Very interesting, but not a story I can recall, so I think you must have
> heard it from someone else.
>
> i'd very much like to read it though.

Thanks, Mike. I've gone ahead and posted the query to /r/TOMT:

https://www.reddit.com/r/tipofmytongue/comments/3o08bw/tomt_story_scifi_story_about_a_global_prediction/

If that doesn't solve the question, I suppose I must've dreamt up the
story while high on something. (Wouldn't that be something?)