Bread <BreadW...@Fractious.net> wrote:
> On 2012-11-05 15:41:17 +0000, Jim_Higgins said:
>
> > OS X Snow Leopard shows signs of becoming Apple's XP
> >
http://tinyurl.com/awhhacb
>
> Why hide the URL behind obfuscation?
>
>
http://www.macworld.com/article/2013517/os-x-snow-leopard-shows-signs-of-b
> ecoming-apples-xp.html
>
> >
> > But there are signs that OS X Snow Leopard, an edition shipped in
> > August 2009, may be the Mac's equivalent of Microsoft's Windows XP, an
> > OS that stubbornly refuses to go away.
>
> From the article:
>
> 25.8% Mountain Lion
> 26.4% Lion
> 27% Snow Leopard
> almost 10% Leopard
You've misread the article. The first three figures are the shares for
Mountain Lion, Lion and Snow Leopard at the point each of them were
three months old.
Current figures from Net Applications (on which the MacWorld article is
based):
25.8% Mountain Lion
31.3% Lion
31.5% Snow Leopard
9.0% Leopard
2.1% Tiger
0.3% Other
> And they say that ML's gains have been at the expense of Lion, not SL.
SL's decline has been steady. It did drop a little faster during the
initial surge of Mountain Lion, but most of the initial upgrades to
Mountain Lion clearly came from Lion users.
For the last two months, Lion and SL have been neck and neck in the
usage stats. Mountain Lion is still gaining rapidly, but has slowed down
from the big surge in the first month and a bit. (See the graph.)
Mountain Lion's rise is due to two factors:
- New Macs which all come with Mountain Lion
- Upgrades to ML from older OS versions.
Lion and SL's drops are also due to two factors:
- New Mac sales running a later OS, reducing the proportion of Macs
running older OS versions.
- Upgrading existing Macs to later OS versions.
> I'm not convinced that this means much. In my experience, most people,
> unless prodded by a specific need or the presence of a household geek,
> simply never upgrade their OS, whether it's on a Windows machine or a
> Mac.
There were more Macs sold during the time Snow Leopard was current than
while Lion was current (even though quarterly sales were higher in the
Lion era, the Snow Leopard era was twice as long), therefore Snow
Leopard had a larger installed base from which to start.
Approximate numbers based on complete quarters nearest to the
introduction date of the new OS version:
35.9 million Macs sold with Snow Leopard preinstalled from the start of
October 2009 to the end of June 2011.
18.1 million Macs sold with Lion preinstalled from the start of July
2011 to the end of June 2012.
For comparison: roughly 20.1 million Macs during the Leopard era (start
of October 2007 to end of September 2009); 14.8 million during the Tiger
era (start of April 2005 to end of September 2007); 5.4 million during
the Panther era (start of October 2003 to end of March 2005).
Intel Mac sales up to the end of of September 2009 were about 30.3
million (allowing resaonble guesstimates for PowerPC vs Intel Mac sales
in 2006). All of those Macs were able to upgrade to Snow Leopard, about
90% were able to upgrade to Lion, and probably close to half of them
were able to upgrade to Mountain Lion (harder to judge without figures
for sales by model).
Given that Snow Leopard and Lion are showing roughly the same numbers
now, that suggests OS X upgrades are quite popular. If the vast majority
of Mac users didn't upgrade their OS, then Snow Leopard would be
outnumbering Lion by almost 2:1.
I don't have stats dating back to the introduction of Leopard, but I
expect that the price drop as of Snow Leopard changed the pattern and
significantly increased the number of old Macs which got upgraded to a
later OS. Those running Tiger or earlier are more likely to be sticking
to their original OS for financial reasons. (Tiger users on Intel Macs
can upgrade straight to Snow Leopard for the same price as Leopard
users, despite the wording on Apple's web site implying they were
supposed to get the much more expensive Mac Box Set.)
The usage pattern for each OS X release starting with 10.6 shows an
initial surge, implying rapid upgrades from some users, then a steady
climb, suggesting a combination of new Mac sales and steady upgrades.
There is the potential issue of older Macs which are no longer being
used, but I can't believe that half of the Macs sold with Snow Leopard
have been destroyed or are no longer accessing the Internet.
Macs not accessing the Internet would also make up some of the sales,
but I expect those would be similar proportions within each era when the
computers were new. As they get older, this would tend to increase with
Macs still running older OS versions, due to browsers and plugins
dropping support for older OS versions, and increased security risks.
This will negatively skew the stats for older OS X versions.
> Moreover, there is a huge base of still active machines which *can't*
> be upgraded past Snow Leopard.
Not as many as you might think, because of the accelerating Mac sales.
Intel Mac sales until the end of September 2006 are about 4.7 million
Macs (again including my guesstimates for Intel vs PowerPC).
Lion-compatible models were introduced over the next quarter (apart from
the Mac Mini), so let's be generous and include that quarter, making the
total 6.2 million.
Out of about 78.8 million Intel Macs sold to the end of September 2012,
about 8% of the total cannot upgrade beyond Snow Leopard (or might still
be running Tiger or Leopard).
> One of the three machines I use daily is such a machine. Eventually, I'll
> retire it and the new machine will certainly be running ML or whatever is
> up-to-date at that point. And I'd upgrade it to ML in a second if it were
> capable of it.
>
> The other issue that's certainly holding many people back is that Lion
> and ML cannot run PowerPC apps. Had Intuit not come out with an
> updated Quicken for Lion, I'd keep SL around a hell of a lot longer,
> too.
This is likely to be a bigger factor than "old model unable to upgrade
further", but the vast majority of people it affects are those who were
using Macs prior to the Intel era (or before about 2008 in the case of
software like Microsoft Office). Accelerating Mac sales and about 50% of
Mac sales to new Mac users means that this group (including you and me)
is becoming a smaller proportion of the total installed base.
Those who started with an Intel Mac are likely to have fewer hinderances
to upgrading to a later OS.
> These same issues plague the Windows world, but often in very much
> larger scales and ways. Plus the next OS after XP was horrible. Lion
> wasn't nearly as bad, though ML does improve things somewhat.
Agreed.
> If Apple would support iCloud in Snow Leopard, I suspect that upgrades
> from it would be even slower, too. I don't think MS couldn't get away
> with the kind of cutting off of services to older machines that Apple
> did here.
The looming demise of MobileMe is what finally pushed me to upgrading to
Lion, and in the process moving away from Eudora.
> Some of the comments in response to the article document many of the
> good reasons folks have stuck with SL, few of them saying anything
> about SL being "better" than ML -- mostly it's about backward
> compatibility with software and hardware.
>
> I do hope Apple is paying attention to these numbers, though. It would
> really be a shame for them to stop putting out updates, particularly
> security-related ones, for an OS which represents 27% of their
> installed base and doesn't appear to be dwindling very quickly.
31%, to use the correct figure.
For comparison, Apple stopped issuing regular security updates for
Leopard when it got down to about 22% in the Net Applications figures,
and Tiger was just under 20%.
Snow Leopard is declining at about 1.5% per month, so if it maintains
that rate it will take six months before it gets to the ballpark of 22%.
If Apple is sensible they will issue another Security Update for Snow
Leopard in the next batch (probably when 10.8.3 is released, which
should be by January if not in December), and it might get one more
after that, but I wouldn't expect any more updates after mid 2013
(around the time 10.9 is released).
> It's likely to reach some sort of almost-plateau and then simply hold on
> as long as people's hardware holds out - which could be several more years
> easily.
The numbers for Leopard include PowerPC Macs unable to upgrade further.
Leopard's total has been dropping about 0.5% on average per month
recently, probably due to new sales increasing the total pool. There
will be some Intel Macs in that total which are not getting upgraded
(due to disinterest or for whatever other reason).
--
David Empson
dem...@actrix.gen.nz