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Apple: Don't Believe Haters, Hype and Hysteria - TheStreet
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Justin
Oct 29, 2012, 8:04:14 PM10/29/12
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http://www.thestreet.com/story/11746218/1/apple-dont-believe-haters-hype-and-hysteria.html?cm_ven_int=morej
Apple: Don't Believe Haters, Hype and Hysteria
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- As I watched Apple (AAPL) blow the doors off of
a San Jose, Calif., convention hall, I experienced conflicting thoughts.
Tim Cook's excellent performance -- overuse of adjectives not
withstanding -- and the lineup of stunning "new" Apple products does not
erase long-term concerns over the company's ability to break new ground
in a post-Steve Jobs world.
That said, on the basis of yesterday's event and how its offspring will
impact the holiday quarter, Cook and Apple crushed it.
See if (AAPL) is in our portfolio
In fact, Apple did such an amazing job I was embarrassed for its
competitors.
We've heard all sorts of hype about competitive products and consumer
tastes and expectations. And, after what Apple revealed Tuesday, not one
bit of it means a thing. Almost across the board, it's wholly irrelevant.
Apple's side-by-side comparison of the new iPad mini with Google's
(GOOG) Nexus 7 tablet put it all to rest.
What Springsteen said in 1980's The River holds true for Apple's
so-called competition today: No wedding day smiles/no walk down the
aisle/No flowers/no wedding dress.
It's a shotgun wedding. And, given the pathetic state of its opposition,
Apple barely has to pull the trigger. It can put its head down, produce
the most aspirational products and price them at a premium.
It doesn't matter what anybody else does.
And, more importantly, it doesn't matter what anybody else says.
I riff more about Apple's clear superiority in Apple Versus Amazon:
Don't Call It a Price War, but that's not what this article is about.
This article is about the things people say. The things you read. The
pieces of information that come together and, for better or worse, help
inform your due diligence.
Investors need to not only ask Is it relevant?, but Is it well-thought
out and rigorous?
I use one specific example here because it's apropos, but it also helps
sound the caution you should exercise when reading everything from data
presented as objective to opinions from guys like me.
Simply stated, consider it all for what it's worth.
For example, if you're bearish iPad mini, you might have latched onto
survey results that made the rounds earlier this month.
Mashable reprinted a BusinessNewsDaily story that regurgitated data from
a TechBargains survey of "1,322 consumers contacted by" the firm.
We get a whole host of seemingly bearish numbers and opinion in the report.
The findings show that "only 18% of respondents plan to purchase an iPad
Mini," while "45% of respondents from the same survey" say they will buy
the new iPhone.
TechBargains president and editor-in-chief Yung Trang provides this
loose analysis of the results:
Given Apple's recent success, it would be easy to assume that all
new Apple products will be wildly popular. Our survey results indicate
that theory is no longer the case. According to our survey respondents,
the so-called iPad Mini will not be highly coveted because consumers are
questioning the necessity of a smaller iPad, especially if they own an
iPad or an iPhone
.
While I give Trang credit for not generalizing the results beyond the
TechBargains' sample, I'll pass on further props.
TechBargains obviously shopped its research around. I received an email
from the company gauging my interest in using it.
When I receive these requests, I respond asking for a detailed
description of research methodology, particularly How did you draw the
sample and who comprises it? I rarely receive an answer that warrants
broadcast of the findings and conclusions.
TechBargains told me that the crowd it surveyed is "tech savvy" and made
up of "early adopters." Stop right there. Red flag number one. And it's
the only one you need.
The person who emailed me was either being honest, figured that the
sample composition would impress me or a mix of both.
In any event, the results provide zero visibility into how Apple's iPad
mini will do. They're useless. For goodness sake, the respondents knew
nothing about the product, including actual price, screen size and
quality of construction or design. Yet the results make it to print and
a solid outlet, Mashable, picks the story up, prompting a moderate level
of sharing across social networks.
So, chew on that and understand that Tuesday's sell-off was way overdone.
In my other iPad mini article today, I get deeper into the reason why
and how I think investors should play it.
Given the dismal reaction, expect more errant surveys and thoughtless
analyses of Apple's market to come out.
More people will decide that my long-term view of an Apple without Steve
Jobs actually makes sense. While I appreciate the validation, they're
all jumping the gun. It's a long-term story that I don't expect to come
to by Christmas.
In the short-term, AAPL closer to $600 than $700 is a screaming buy.
That's because it's light years ahead of the competition and its
products will dominate the holiday season.
That has nothing to do with future innovation; it has everything to do
with today's reality in tech.
At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the
stocks mentioned.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from
TheStreet's regular news coverage.
Apple: Don't Believe Haters, Hype and Hysteria
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- As I watched Apple (AAPL) blow the doors off of
a San Jose, Calif., convention hall, I experienced conflicting thoughts.
Tim Cook's excellent performance -- overuse of adjectives not
withstanding -- and the lineup of stunning "new" Apple products does not
erase long-term concerns over the company's ability to break new ground
in a post-Steve Jobs world.
That said, on the basis of yesterday's event and how its offspring will
impact the holiday quarter, Cook and Apple crushed it.
See if (AAPL) is in our portfolio
In fact, Apple did such an amazing job I was embarrassed for its
competitors.
We've heard all sorts of hype about competitive products and consumer
tastes and expectations. And, after what Apple revealed Tuesday, not one
bit of it means a thing. Almost across the board, it's wholly irrelevant.
Apple's side-by-side comparison of the new iPad mini with Google's
(GOOG) Nexus 7 tablet put it all to rest.
What Springsteen said in 1980's The River holds true for Apple's
so-called competition today: No wedding day smiles/no walk down the
aisle/No flowers/no wedding dress.
It's a shotgun wedding. And, given the pathetic state of its opposition,
Apple barely has to pull the trigger. It can put its head down, produce
the most aspirational products and price them at a premium.
It doesn't matter what anybody else does.
And, more importantly, it doesn't matter what anybody else says.
I riff more about Apple's clear superiority in Apple Versus Amazon:
Don't Call It a Price War, but that's not what this article is about.
This article is about the things people say. The things you read. The
pieces of information that come together and, for better or worse, help
inform your due diligence.
Investors need to not only ask Is it relevant?, but Is it well-thought
out and rigorous?
I use one specific example here because it's apropos, but it also helps
sound the caution you should exercise when reading everything from data
presented as objective to opinions from guys like me.
Simply stated, consider it all for what it's worth.
For example, if you're bearish iPad mini, you might have latched onto
survey results that made the rounds earlier this month.
Mashable reprinted a BusinessNewsDaily story that regurgitated data from
a TechBargains survey of "1,322 consumers contacted by" the firm.
We get a whole host of seemingly bearish numbers and opinion in the report.
The findings show that "only 18% of respondents plan to purchase an iPad
Mini," while "45% of respondents from the same survey" say they will buy
the new iPhone.
TechBargains president and editor-in-chief Yung Trang provides this
loose analysis of the results:
Given Apple's recent success, it would be easy to assume that all
new Apple products will be wildly popular. Our survey results indicate
that theory is no longer the case. According to our survey respondents,
the so-called iPad Mini will not be highly coveted because consumers are
questioning the necessity of a smaller iPad, especially if they own an
iPad or an iPhone
.
While I give Trang credit for not generalizing the results beyond the
TechBargains' sample, I'll pass on further props.
TechBargains obviously shopped its research around. I received an email
from the company gauging my interest in using it.
When I receive these requests, I respond asking for a detailed
description of research methodology, particularly How did you draw the
sample and who comprises it? I rarely receive an answer that warrants
broadcast of the findings and conclusions.
TechBargains told me that the crowd it surveyed is "tech savvy" and made
up of "early adopters." Stop right there. Red flag number one. And it's
the only one you need.
The person who emailed me was either being honest, figured that the
sample composition would impress me or a mix of both.
In any event, the results provide zero visibility into how Apple's iPad
mini will do. They're useless. For goodness sake, the respondents knew
nothing about the product, including actual price, screen size and
quality of construction or design. Yet the results make it to print and
a solid outlet, Mashable, picks the story up, prompting a moderate level
of sharing across social networks.
So, chew on that and understand that Tuesday's sell-off was way overdone.
In my other iPad mini article today, I get deeper into the reason why
and how I think investors should play it.
Given the dismal reaction, expect more errant surveys and thoughtless
analyses of Apple's market to come out.
More people will decide that my long-term view of an Apple without Steve
Jobs actually makes sense. While I appreciate the validation, they're
all jumping the gun. It's a long-term story that I don't expect to come
to by Christmas.
In the short-term, AAPL closer to $600 than $700 is a screaming buy.
That's because it's light years ahead of the competition and its
products will dominate the holiday season.
That has nothing to do with future innovation; it has everything to do
with today's reality in tech.
At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the
stocks mentioned.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from
TheStreet's regular news coverage.
FDK
Oct 29, 2012, 10:21:10 PM10/29/12
to
"Justin" wrote in message news:k6n5hu$n7h$1...@dont-email.me...
>http://www.thestreet.com/story/11746218/1/apple-dont-believe-haters-hype-and-hysteria.html?cm_ven_int=morej
>Apple: Don't Believe Haters, Hype and Hysteria
Ezekiel
Oct 30, 2012, 8:16:14 AM10/30/12
to
"FDK" <f...@aol.com> wrote in message news:k6ndin$uh$1...@dont-email.me...
The article is about the stock - AAPL. If you have a 401k at work, a Roth
IRA or a mutual fund then chances are very high that you already do own a
bunch.
--
"Share price is a measure of market confidence based on current performance.
The market is apparently twice as confident of ($600) Google as it is of
($320) Apple, and 20 times more confident than it is of Microsoft. So what
Google is doing today is apparently better than what others are doing."
Homer the financial moron lecturing others on another simple concept he
completely fails to understand
IRA or a mutual fund then chances are very high that you already do own a
bunch.
--
"Share price is a measure of market confidence based on current performance.
The market is apparently twice as confident of ($600) Google as it is of
($320) Apple, and 20 times more confident than it is of Microsoft. So what
Google is doing today is apparently better than what others are doing."
Homer the financial moron lecturing others on another simple concept he
completely fails to understand
7
Oct 30, 2012, 2:47:30 PM10/30/12
to
Justin wrote:
> http://www.thestreet.com/story/11746218/1/apple-dont-believe-haters-hype-
dumping appile stock.
Appil is an Evil Global Patent Trolling Company.
A pretender to the techie throne reduced to making second hand goods
and tricking fanboiees into buying CRAP.
If you want to believe in something then believe in Linux.
http://www.livecdlist.com
http://www.distrowatch.com
Linux has turned into an industrial strength serial killer
wiping out Appile and Micorshaft in one blow.
Why?
Lots and lots of free source code to share as much as you want
to make any new product as you want.
> http://www.thestreet.com/story/11746218/1/apple-dont-believe-haters-hype-
and-hysteria.html?cm_ven_int=morej
>
> Apple: Don't Believe Haters, Hype and Hysteria
>
> NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- As I watched Apple (AAPL) blow the doors off of
> a San Jose, Calif., convention hall, I experienced conflicting thoughts.
Don't have conflicting thoughts - believe the fleeing appil fanboiees
>
> Apple: Don't Believe Haters, Hype and Hysteria
>
> NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- As I watched Apple (AAPL) blow the doors off of
> a San Jose, Calif., convention hall, I experienced conflicting thoughts.
dumping appile stock.
Appil is an Evil Global Patent Trolling Company.
A pretender to the techie throne reduced to making second hand goods
and tricking fanboiees into buying CRAP.
If you want to believe in something then believe in Linux.
http://www.livecdlist.com
http://www.distrowatch.com
Linux has turned into an industrial strength serial killer
wiping out Appile and Micorshaft in one blow.
Why?
Lots and lots of free source code to share as much as you want
to make any new product as you want.
Snit
Oct 30, 2012, 3:15:32 PM10/30/12
to
On 10/30/12 11:47 AM, in article 6hVjs.78234$ti6....@fx20.am4, "7"
* convicted of willfully copying others and fined over 1 billion dollars
* fined the second largest US anti-trust fine for price fixing DRAM chips
* found guilty in the EU for the same price fixing scheme
* was involved in a price fixing scheme on LCD screens
They are hardly the "good guys" in the silly battles going on.
--
"But I have never, ever even run a Linux server and I don't even want
to; it's not what I'm interested in. I'm more of a desktop guy."
-- Linus Torvalds
<email_at_www_at_en...@enemygadgets.com> wrote:
> Justin wrote:
>
>> http://www.thestreet.com/story/11746218/1/apple-dont-believe-haters-hype-
> and-hysteria.html?cm_ven_int=morej
>>
>> Apple: Don't Believe Haters, Hype and Hysteria
>>
>> NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- As I watched Apple (AAPL) blow the doors off of
>> a San Jose, Calif., convention hall, I experienced conflicting thoughts.
>
>
> Don't have conflicting thoughts - believe the fleeing appil fanboiees
> dumping appile stock.
>
> Appil is an Evil Global Patent Trolling Company.
Apple is no more evil than Samsung Electronics who has been:
> Justin wrote:
>
>> http://www.thestreet.com/story/11746218/1/apple-dont-believe-haters-hype-
> and-hysteria.html?cm_ven_int=morej
>>
>> Apple: Don't Believe Haters, Hype and Hysteria
>>
>> NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- As I watched Apple (AAPL) blow the doors off of
>> a San Jose, Calif., convention hall, I experienced conflicting thoughts.
>
>
> Don't have conflicting thoughts - believe the fleeing appil fanboiees
> dumping appile stock.
>
> Appil is an Evil Global Patent Trolling Company.
* convicted of willfully copying others and fined over 1 billion dollars
* fined the second largest US anti-trust fine for price fixing DRAM chips
* found guilty in the EU for the same price fixing scheme
* was involved in a price fixing scheme on LCD screens
They are hardly the "good guys" in the silly battles going on.
--
"But I have never, ever even run a Linux server and I don't even want
to; it's not what I'm interested in. I'm more of a desktop guy."
-- Linus Torvalds
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