Andrea Giannuzzi
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@Alan
Thank you Alan,
you pointed out another significant suggest potentially able to improve my estimates. I didn't implemented yet a GlobalSearch scheme but eventually I'll embed it in order to increase the likelihood of "good" local minima.
Again, however, this do not exclude the opportunity of increasing the efficiency of the solver by requiring a more "smooth" behavior if possibile (and if there are reasons, are it is the case, to come up with "good" initials parameters), and hence by limiting the step-size of the solver.
(As I said in the open post, I tried with interior-point, sqp and active-set as well without significant differences with reference to the question I'm explaining here).
@Matt
I'll try to summarize the focal points. I'm calling fmincon in the following way
[param]=fmincon(@(param)model_Lik(dep,indep,indep,param,k,S,advOpt,dispOut),param0, A,b,Aeq,beq,lB,uB,[],options);
where "model_Lik.m" starts with
function [sumlik,Output,logLikVec]=model_Lik(dep,indep,indep,param,k,S,advOpt,disp_out)
and has at the end
sumlik=-sum(log(f(2:end)));
where "f" is a vector containing the filtered probability densities of the dependent observation being generated using "param". Given Cond_mean=indep*param, I compute the pdf according to simple a multivariate Normal distribution:
pdf=1/(((2*pi())^(nc/2))*sqrt(det(covMat))).* exp(-0.5.*sum((dep(:,:)-Cond_mean(:,:))*inv(covMat).*(dep(:,:)-Cond_mean(:,:)),2));
As I noted before, the problem is that when fmincon jumps, I get as a consequence a Cond_mean=x*param far away from the dependent observation (dep), and therefore a pdf=0 for some rows (ie, less than the minimum floating point number). At the end, the filtered equation which delivers "f" faces a 0/0=NaN which enters the -sum(log(f(2:end))) and that's all.
In fact I think there are not a lot of insights in this code which could help avoiding sumloglik=0: the problem is that fmincon believes that it is a good idea to do such a jump, and moving accordingly implies a pdf of zero for the reasons I tried to explain.
Please. tell me if something is still unclear and I'll try to do my best to explain further,
Thank you very much for all the help you provided insofar!
Andrea