the oz syndrome
Jeddy kay
group of people is percieved as having special knowlege. That group tends to
become powerful beyond its natural capabilities. In relation to computers do
you think this trend is lessening with the influx of personal PC and knowledge
of computers in general?
Walter Roberson
You have not defined which 'trend' you are refering to. A syndrome is
not a trend (but syndrome might be a 'tendancy'.)
In order for there to be a 'trend', you have to provide at least two
measurements taken at different times.
My personal suspicion is that there will be fairly few people who will
understand how Windows XP corporate networking really works -- but
that it will take some time before these people become powerful, because
of the myth that "Anyone can understand Windows!". Meanwhile there will
likely be people in positions like mine, telling our managements that
"You know, this would all have been a heck of a lot easier under Unix"
but not being paid attention to until the facade cracks get too big.
Ric Werme
>In a computer class I learned of the term "the oz syndrome." It's when a small
>group of people is percieved as having special knowlege. That group tends to
>become powerful beyond its natural capabilities.
That may have been true during the "Golden Age" of computers when those
who understood them formed a "priesthood" behind the locked doors. (People
did use the term priesthood, too.)
These days with 3 and 4 year olds learning how to use computers and with
hundreds of thousands of programmers running around, there's too many
people who understand the machines to fit behind the curtain.
>In relation to computers do you think this trend is lessening with the
>influx of personal PC and knowledge of computers in general?
The influx of PCs? As compared to when a good run was building 100 systems
of a particular model?
Let me change the question around a bit. Why are automobile designers not
considered be a priesthood? The physics of suspensions, the chemistry
of combustion, the design of high traction, long wearing tires, etc are
all things beyond the abilities of 99% of the people who use the equipment
every day. You just don't need to know that stuff to drive to WalMart.
Likewise, you don't need to know now Microsoft Word is designed inside to
write a letter to Bill Gates. As long as people know how to use their
computers, and as long as they work without much fuss, no one will
care about the Wizards of Oz.
-Ric Werme
--
"When we allow fundamental freedoms to be sacrificed in the name of real or
perceived emergency, we invariably regret it. -- Thurgood Marshall
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Zebee Johnstone
Ric Werme <we...@mediaone.net> wrote:
>These days with 3 and 4 year olds learning how to use computers and with
>hundreds of thousands of programmers running around, there's too many
>people who understand the machines to fit behind the curtain.
Umm.. no. There are too many people who *think* they understand the
machines, and who can do simple things.
Trouble is that they think they know the machines, and that everything
is as simple as the things they do.
If they *did* understand, there wouldn't be the virus and roothack
problems.
This leads to those who *do* understand being undervalued by many, who
don't realise how much is involved in doing the hard work.
Zebee
Peter da Silva
Hardly, Windows is the most complex operating system I've seen yet, with
an amazingly dysfunctional set of competing subsystems evolved over the past
decade or so that all have to remain supported for compatibility reasons.
Rather than spreading knowledge, PCs have only concentrated it.
--
`-_-' In hoc signo hack, Peter da Silva.
'U` "A well-rounded geek should be able to geek about anything."
-- nic...@esperi.org
Disclaimer: WWFD?
Joel Garry
I think so, but not because of PC's and the increasing knowledge of computers,
but rather the reason is the increasing ubiquity of computers. When
they were new and unique and there was an initial steep rise in the curve
of products being developed, you definitely saw this effect. But now, as
they are everywhere, they have become appliances, like telephones. In the
future, this trend will continue, until there is no longer a perceived line
between computers and other things. People hardly realize how many computers
they are surrounded by now - a $19.95 telephone may have a computer in it.
My watch has more power than the first consumer PC's. The general purpose
computer as a separate product will soon disappear. In economic terms, it
is already obsolete - obsolete in this sense is not the same as in the
commonly used sense, but rather means it is a mature product that has been
commoditized. Often a very great deal of profit (with a slim margin) can
be made with a mature product cycle. We will see a lot of products developed
for specific functions, most of which will fail, but the few that succeed
will tend to merge into multi-function devices grouped by, well, let's
call it superfunctions. For example, perhaps your letter jacket will quite
literally contain a merged note-taking device, phone, pager, email, and
interfaces to other computers.
There still needs to be a lot of standardization and infrastructure on the
inter-computer side, and we may well see an oz effect there - there was an
initial effect with the browser wars and the general technology bubble which
has now collapsed, but there still remains a lot of connectivity to be
developed. The age of the smart refrigerator is not yet upon us.
There may also be an oz effect in the systems design area, but it may not
become well known to the general public.
Note that managers still think of technical types in terms of interchangeable
parts, as modelled by manufacturing systems (look up Taylor Scientific
Management in the history books). So the people with the money and power
tend not to buy into the oz, or even worse, think they are the priesthood.
This would be exemplified by Ivy League professional managerial programs.
A Harvard or Wharton MBA is oz personified. They really came into their
own with the development of spreadsheets for PC's in the early '80s.
Search the web for some guy named Dan Bricklin.
jg
--
These opinions are my own.
http://www.garry.to Oracle and unix guy.
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