On Friday, August 7, 2020 at 3:13:08 PM UTC-4, mGhost wrote:
> On 2020-08-07, -hh wrote:
> >
> > The trade-off is what's likely to happen if you don't do that.
> >
> > Simply put, the revenue loss means that the more highly
> > leveraged landlords will run out of money to service
> > their bank loans, so they'll be forced to sell property
> > at "distressed" discounts, and/or be forced by the banks
> > into foreclosure and bankruptcy...but because the housing
> > market will decline, the banks are at increased risk of
> > being underwater on property value vs market, so they could
> > be dragged under too...
> >
>
> Yes, you see this clearly. It's called Mark to Market
> Accounting and it's how your banks value their loans.
> As you described, the landlords borrow the money for
> the building, and the renters pay the rent which in
> turns pays the loan.
Agreed. A couple of years ago, a colleague was trying
to convince me to partner up with him on an outside
venture he had in rental unit real estate. He was
buying up rundown properties, fixing them up, getting
them reappraised and then take out a higher mortgage
based on the reappraisal to free up cash to buy the
next unit to repeat the cycle.
It was quite obvious to me that it only works out when
everything is working like a clock to assure the cash
flow .. ie, high tenant occupancy rates, low unexpected
repairs, etc .. but as soon as here's a disruption, the
entire portfolio is at risk of rapid collapse from cash
flow interruption, just like what happened to many small-
timers back in 2009. Needless to say, I declined.
> The somewhat wealthy will lose everything. Renters
> will be homeless. Banks will look horrible. And the
> extreme rich will buy up real estate and fire-sale prices.
Agreed.
To minimize this risk is to be strategically prepared by
having a high equity vs costs ratio -- ie, basically to
have enough cash in the bank to carry the full operating
costs of the property for a ~year (or longer) without the
benefit of any incoming revenue.
-hh