Market odds of "Tcl/Tk wins on the Internet" at 26 to 29%
wba...@baker.com
Tcl/Tk becomes the dominant scripting language on the Internet
In particular, the following must happen there exist native window- system
ports of Tcl/Tk for the Mac, PC and Unix that are freely available and
widely publicized there exists an interpreted architecture-neutral
distribution format that allows Tcl/Tk executables to run directly under
Mac, PC, Unix without any recompilation Tcl/Tk is selected by at least two
of the major web client vendors (e.g. NCSA Mosaic, Spyglass, Netscape --
list will vary as appropriate to the evolution of the industry) as a
scripting language by which their client can be programmed (their products
must be for sale at the time of claim closure). ``Widely publicized'' means
a feature article on the dominance of Tcl/Tk as the Internet scripting
language in two or more of the major glossy Internet hype magazines; these
must non-academic publications and must concentrate on the PC and Mac
aspects of the phenomenon.
This claim will be judged 1/97.
The odds shown in the subject line are the consensus of participants in an
Idea Futures market (the two percentages are the buy and sell prices for
'funny money' bets). You can learn more about this market by pointing your
world wide web browser to
http://if.arc.ab.ca/~jamesm/IF/IF.shtml
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The current odds for all claims on the market are as follows:
comp claims:
35P6 10 - 22% .35micron P6
3SAT 48 - 49% Good 3SAT Algorithm by 2020
5500 73 - 81% 5500 Software Patents in 1995
ADED 38 - 43% Amiga is dead by 1/1/97
BOB3 2 - 3% Bob sells 3,000,000 copies
Cash 87 - 89% E-Cash implemented before '97
Ches 76 - 77% Machine Chess Champion by 2000
ChkS 78 - 79% Checkers solved by 2005
ChP6 35 - 37% INTEL P6 cheaper than $1000
CNTX 88 - 98% connectix trades on stock mark
Cr28 15 - 23% 128bit cipher cracked <2020
Cr56 54 - 55% 56bit cipher cracked < 1998
Cr80 25 - 34% 80bit cipher cracked by 2005
DNA$ 20 - 21% Commercial DNA computer
DNAT 33 - 42% DNA-based Turing machine demo
EMVR 22 - 24% "Earth" main VR System by 2000
FacK 42 - 44% 1024bit number factored by '10
Fact 78 - 79% 512 Bit number factored by '97
GoCh 38 - 39% Machine GO Champion by 2020
GROW 62 - 63% GROW wins on Internet
IDEA 17 - 18% IDEA cipher cracked by 2000
IF~$ 60 - 62% IF Players > 35% Invested
iNSP 66 - 68% Native Signal Processing wins
IReg 40 - 41% Internet regulated in US
Java 76 - 77% Java wins on Internet
LA25 91 - 99% LINPACK 25000MFlops 12/31/95
LA30 82 - 89% LINPACK 30000MFlops 12/31/95
LEvr 85 - 88% LINPACK variable 12/31/99
MANZ 51 - 96% Jim Manzi Resigns < 2 years
MSNS 19 - 23% MSN subscribers by 96/1/1
MSNX 10 - 15% Justice removes MSN by 1/1/96
N86L 66 - 72% Non-x86 Linux Exists
NIPC 50 - 52% Non-Intel PCs Dominate by 2000
NoKb 56 - 57% Keyboards replaced by ???
OS2X 35 - 38% OS/2 is killed before 1997
P!NP 70 - 75% P != NP proven by 2010
Pt15 15 - 56% FCC restricts Part 15 devices
SPat 32 - 42% New patenting for programs
SSLW 16 - 17% SSL wins on Internet
TcTk 26 - 29% Tcl/Tk wins on the Internet
Tran 67 - 70% Machine Translation by 2015
UNIX 37 - 39% UNIX is irrelevant by 2000
USMS 4 - 5% U.S. makes DOS/Win Public Stds
Veri 17 - 20% Verilog wins in EDA
VRML 76 - 77% VRML wins on Internet
X400 73 - 74% X.400 irrelevant by 2000
sci claims:
3VDE 77 - 78% 3Var DiophantineEquations 2050
Astr 7 - 9% Astrology Stat'ly Significant
Canc 33 - 34% Cancer Cured by 2010
CCx0 43 - 57% Cosmological Constant > 0.
CFsn 15 - 16% Cold Fusion
Cryo 14 - 15% Cryonics Catches On by 2000
Cybo 34 - 36% Cyborgs by 2035/12/31
Ferm 97 - 98% Fermat's Last Theorem resolved
FOMC 50 - 64% Fed drops short rates 26Sep95
Fusn 70 - 73% Operational fusion reactor
GBch 66 - 73% Goldbach Conjecture by 2020
GRBr 61 - 62% Gamma Ray Bursters are nearby
GrWv 65 - 66% Gravitational Waves by 2003
HEMP 67 - 75% Agricultural Hemp legal in EC
Higg 60 - 61% Higgs particle discovered 2005
HIVC 40 - 41% HIV cure by 2005
HIVV 48 - 49% HIV Vaccine by 2000
Immo 16 - 18% Immortality by 2050
Jup2 26 - 46% Jupiter Probe Survives
Jupp 84 - 88% Jupiter probe is successful
MdCd 3 - 9% More MD's than CD's in 1997.
Mini 3 - 7% More Md's in 97 than Cd's
Moon 57 - 58% Moonbase by 2025
NASA 5 - 11% magnetic flx prop. by 5/2/2001
Neut 77 - 80% Neutrino mass >0
NLud 9 - 13% Neo-Luddite K. Sale wins bet
NSF$ 62 - 70% NSF budget is reduced
PFol 70 - 78% Protein folding solved by 2010
Popl 75 - 80% World population > 10 Billion
RHyp 34 - 42% Riemann Hypothesis by 2020
SGun 26 - 40% Space gun by 2010
SLvl 17 - 20% 1 m rise in Sea Level
Spce 58 - 59% Private Space Exploitation
SSTO 60 - 64% Single Stage to Orbit
Stew 20 - 21% Nanotech Stewart platform
Tach 18 - 21% Time communication possible.
Time 13 - 14% Time Travel
UFOx 15 - 19% Existence of UFOs verified
Univ 36 - 37% Eventual Collapse of Universe
Uran 16 - 19% Stable TransUranic Isotope
VTRA 42 - 46% Virtual Travel by 2001
XLif 51 - 52% Extraterrestrial Life by 2050
misc claims:
$vIF 79 - 80% Real $ Ver. of IF (<1.1.2000)
1040 32 - 40% US Taxes unchanged in 2001
3UPD 10 - 29% 3DO Upgrade Ships by 12/95
3UPP 41 - 49% 3DO Upgrade less than US$225
3UPT 67 - 81% Rumored 3DO Upgrade Specs True
5000 32 - 36% Dow 30 Industrials Close >5000
AHCc 1 - 63% Alberta cuts clinic funding
Am30 20 - 21% 30 amends. to US Const by 2000
Amig 29 - 59% PowerPC based Amiga by 1/1/97
APPL 34 - 35% Apple Computer dies by 2005
As97 45 - 47% Assassination attempt by 97
ATrB 65 - 67% A New Asian Trade Bloc by 2000
AusR 78 - 84% Australian Republic by 2002
B5S3 99 -100% Babylon 5 has 3rd Season
B5S4 93 - 95% Babylon 5 has 4th Season
B5S5 89 - 92% Babylon 5 has 5th season
BAT4 0 - 2% BATMAN FOREVER blockbuster hit
BC96 44 - 45% Clinton re-elected in 96
BOOK 81 - 90% Sports Book in US outside NV
BOS1 29 - 31% Bosnian Govt Frees Sarajevo
Bosn 16 - 25% Bosnian War ended 1-Jan-96
Brad 28 - 29% Bill Bradley in the '96 race
BRNS 94 - 95% George Burns dead by 2005
CADE 23 - 49% Big 5 European CAD Vendor
ccar 47 - 48% "Zero Emission" Cars not reqrd
CERT 37 - 45% U.S.-Certified Encryption Only
Colt 24 - 25% Ban on assault weapons lifted
CPB$ 14 - 15% Public Broadcasting Funds Cut
CPfP 37 - 38% Colin Powell runs for Pres.
CPiP 29 - 30% UK Conservative in power 7/97
CrpX 23 - 25% Strong crypto exportable by 96
Cuba 50 - 53% Castro still in power by 1999
DENG 20 - 21% Death of Deng triggers revolt
DICE 40 - 41% 2 dice rolled, sum is prime
DJ95 48 - 50% (Dow 30 @ 12/31/95) / 10000
DJ96 52 - 53% (Dow 30 @ 12/31/96) / 10000
DOCX 45 - 47% U.S. Commerce Dept abolished
dole 36 - 37% Dole beats Clinton for Pres
DowC 9 - 11% 10% 1-day DOW drop by 2/96
DRD2 45 - 50% Sequel to JUDGE DREDD by 2000
Epdm 30 - 32% Deadly Epidemic in G7/EC
FCCX 25 - 28% FCC is disbanded
FNUK 95 - 96% French nuclear test this year
FrNT 68 - 79% French Nuclear Tests go ahead
FSTX 18 - 19% Fed sales intead of income tax
gard 99 -100% Jerry Garcia Dead in 95
Ging 17 - 22% Gingrich enters Prez race
GuyT 40 - 50% Gov. Guy Tucker resigns
Hank 0 - 1% Foster becomes Surgeon Genl
HOFF 1 - 64% Mark Hoffman resigns
Infl 23 - 25% Inflation 2010/1995 <= 4.0
IRAb 10 - 14% IRA attack in London by 1/1/96
ISDN 27 - 28% 25% Telephones ISDN by 2000
Jack 55 - 56% Jackson/Presley divorce
JIto 90 - 97% Ito presides over instructions
Jl12 16 - 18% 13 OJ jurors dismissed
JMGn 9 - 10% John Major out by 1/1/96
KNSU 4 - 5% North and South Korea Unify
Lb7p 4 - 19% Long bond >7% by 9/30/95
MacC 60 - 64% Mac clone sales> Macs by 7/97
MLAW 12 - 18% Minimalist Legal System wins
Ms.P 45 - 47% Woman President by 2013
Naf2 22 - 23% NaftaPlus signed by Clinton
NG2K 42 - 52% Gingrich run for Pres in 2000
Nipl 77 - 78% Nudity on Network TV by 1999
NoPW 78 - 80% Pete Wilson out by 5/1/96
NoWh 15 - 16% <50 whales hunted Norway'96
OJBS 4 - 10% OJ Simpson testifies
OJdt 50 - 56% (OJ trial end - 95.7.1)/200
OJgt 28 - 30% O.J Simpson found Guilty
OJMT 63 - 66% Mistrial or hung jury for OJ
OKbr 94 - 97% Oklahoma Bomber a U.S. Citizen
Pete 15 - 16% PETE WILSON Republican Nominee
PGPX 30 - 31% Zimmermann tried on PGP export
PicF 45 - 67% Residential Videophones 2005
pmin 50 - 58% Prez w/o majority on 2/1/97
Poc1 0 - 1% Pocahontas #1 US Summer Film
Prop 36 - 54% No wait claim creation 1-1-96
QMUM 25 - 29% Queen Mother alive in 2000
Quak 74 - 75% Big West Coast Quake by 2010
QueS 9 - 10% Quebec separation
road 55 - 88% Fed Roadway Funds cut by 2005
Rsgn 5 - 6% Clinton resigns or impeached
SGAJ 42 - 49% Subway GasAttack outside Japan
sick 97 - 99% Paul Bernardo found guilty
SShX 35 - 38% Shuttle disaster by 1/1/2000
SSma 47 - 48% Same-sex marriages legal in US
surg 70 - 73% unnatural cosmetic surgery
SWIV 17 - 20% Star Wars movie 4 by 1997
TBnp 69 - 76% Tony Blair next British PM
TBOT 23 - 27% Economical Beverage Robot.
Terr 49 - 50% Nuke capable Terrorists
TopT 66 - 70% Daily Late Show Top 10 in 9/96
TrCm 48 - 50% Chemical/bio terrorist attack
TVCD 40 - 45% Sony/Philips CD videodisk wins
U64D 0 - 5% Ultra 64 Ships By 12/95
U64P 85 -100% Ultra 64 less than US$280
U64T 51 - 89% Rumored Ultra 64 Specs True
UKCO 50 - 70% Local Internet in UK by 1997
UnaB 37 - 38% "Unabomber" caught by 6/1/96
WedP 19 - 23% married R. C. priests by 2005
WELD 0 - 9% Bill Weld - Next Attorney Gen.
XFed 28 - 29% US Federal Govt. shuts down
Full descriptions and conditions of these claims are available at
http://if.arc.ab.ca/~jamesm/IF/allclaims.shtml
This message is automatically posted to this newsgroup on a monthly basis
as specified by the owner of the claim: wba...@baker.com