Ethylene Price Trend Q2 2026 | Price Trends, Forecast, Chart, Prices and Index

[Ajay Rajput]

The Ethylene Price Trend changed sharply during Q2 2026, with ethylene markets across major regions experiencing strong price increases followed by a noticeable correction in June. 

The quarter was strongly influenced by disruption in crude oil and naphtha feedstock supply chains linked to the USA-Israel vs Iran conflict and the threat of closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As crude oil and naphtha costs moved higher, ethylene values also increased across Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and the USA.

For buyers, sellers, manufacturers, and other participants in the petrochemical market, Q2 2026 was an unusual period. Prices did not simply move gradually higher. Instead, the market experienced a strong rise followed by a sharp correction. This made the Ethylene Prices story particularly important during the quarter and showed how quickly feedstock and geopolitical developments can affect petrochemical markets.

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Ethylene Price Trend in Q2 2026

During Q2 2026, ethylene prices increased across all the markets covered in the data. The largest increases were recorded in European markets, where the Netherlands, Germany, and Belgium saw prices rise by more than 66% during the quarter.

The Netherlands recorded an increase of about 68.76%, while Germany rose by approximately 67.40%. Belgium followed with an increase of around 66.11%.

Other markets also recorded substantial gains. Turkey increased by about 58.31%, Qatar by 56.02%, South Korea by 53.47%, Saudi Arabia by 52.55%, China by 52.65%, and Japan by 51.32%.

Argentina recorded an increase of around 37.58%, while the USA saw ethylene prices rise by approximately 41.48%.

These numbers show that the Q2 movement was not limited to one particular region. The increase was broad and was visible in imported, exported, and domestically traded ethylene markets.

What Caused Ethylene Prices to Rise?

One of the main factors behind the Q2 2026 price increase was the pressure on crude oil and naphtha feedstock supply chains.

Ethylene is closely connected to the petrochemical feedstock market. When the cost and availability of important feedstocks change, ethylene production economics can also change. During Q2, the USA-Israel vs Iran conflict and the threat surrounding the Strait of Hormuz created additional uncertainty around crude oil and naphtha supply.

This uncertainty affected market participants across different regions.

A simple way to understand the situation is to look at the chain reaction:

Geopolitical disruption → crude oil supply concerns → higher feedstock costs → higher naphtha costs → pressure on ethylene production costs → higher Ethylene Prices.

This also explains why several markets moved higher at roughly the same time.

The effect was particularly visible in Europe, where the Netherlands, Germany, and Belgium recorded the strongest quarterly increases among the markets listed.

European Ethylene Prices Show Strongest Increase

Europe experienced some of the most significant movement during Q2 2026.

In the Netherlands, domestically traded ethylene prices at FD Rotterdam increased by approximately 68.76% during the quarter. Germany recorded a rise of about 67.40% at FD Hamburg, while Belgium increased approximately 66.11% at FD Antwerp.

The common factor across these markets was higher feedstock pressure combined with steady demand from polyethylene and other downstream polymer buyers.

When buyers continue to require material while production and feedstock costs are increasing, the market can remain firm for an extended period. This was visible in the European market during the quarter.

However, the story changed in June. Netherlands ethylene prices fell by around 31.93%, Germany declined by approximately 30.95%, and Belgium dropped by about 30.99%.

This sharp correction shows how quickly prices can move in the opposite direction after an extraordinary increase.

Asia Sees Strong Ethylene Market Movement

Asian markets also experienced substantial increases during Q2 2026.

China's imported ethylene prices at CIF Shanghai increased by around 52.65%. Firming prices from South Korea were passed through into Chinese import valuations, while broader feedstock and supply concerns supported the upward movement.

Japan's FOB Tokyo ethylene export prices increased by approximately 51.32%. South Korea also recorded a strong increase of around 53.47% at FOB Busan.

Demand from polyethylene and downstream polymer buyers helped keep prices elevated during the quarter.

However, June brought a correction in both markets. China recorded a decline of approximately 23.23%, while Japan fell by around 25.04%.

South Korea also experienced a June correction of approximately 23.85%.

The Asian market therefore followed the same broad pattern seen elsewhere: a strong Q2 increase followed by a significant June pullback.

Middle East Market Also Remained Firm

The Middle Eastern markets included in the Q2 data also showed considerable price growth.

Qatar's imported ethylene prices at CIF Hamad increased by around 56.02%, with higher Saudi Arabian prices passing through into import valuations.

Saudi Arabia's export ethylene prices at FOB Jeddah increased by approximately 52.55%.

The market remained supported by demand from polyethylene and downstream polymer buyers. At the same time, concerns around crude oil and naphtha supply contributed to higher market valuations.

In June, Qatar's ethylene prices corrected by approximately 19.80%, while Saudi Arabia recorded a decline of around 22.78%.

Compared with some European markets, the June correction was smaller, but it was still significant enough to show that the market was moving away from the extreme Q2 peak.

Ethylene Price Trend in the USA

The USA also experienced a strong increase during Q2 2026.

FOB Houston export prices increased by approximately 41.48% during the quarter. Although this was lower than the percentage increases recorded in the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, Turkey, and several Asian and Middle Eastern markets, it still represented a major quarterly movement.

The market was influenced by the same broader factors affecting crude oil and naphtha feedstock supply chains.

Demand from polyethylene and downstream polymer buyers also helped keep the market firm.

However, June again brought a correction. USA ethylene prices declined by approximately 25.91% during the month.

This highlights an important point about the Q2 market: a strong quarterly increase did not mean that prices continued rising throughout the entire period. The June correction was an important part of the overall Q2 price story.

Argentina and Turkey Follow the Global Movement

Argentina recorded an ethylene price increase of approximately 37.58% during Q2 2026. Imported prices at CIF Buenos Aires were influenced by firming USA prices, which passed through into import valuations.

The market remained supported by demand from polyethylene and downstream polymer buyers.

In June, Argentina's Ethylene Prices corrected by around 23.05% as buyers adjusted their procurement activity.

Turkey recorded a stronger quarterly increase of approximately 58.31%. Imported prices at CIF Mersin were influenced by firming Saudi Arabian prices and broader supply-chain concerns.

Turkey's June correction was approximately 19.63%.

These two markets demonstrate how changes in major exporting countries can be passed through to importing markets.

Ethylene Price Chart: Understanding the Q2 Movement

The Ethylene Price Chart for Q2 2026 would show a clear pattern: a strong upward movement followed by a sharp downward correction in June.

Rather than a smooth price increase, the market experienced an extraordinary peak-and-correction cycle.

The European markets would stand out because they recorded the largest quarterly increases. The Netherlands, Germany, and Belgium all moved above the 66% increase level.

Meanwhile, markets such as Argentina and the USA recorded comparatively lower quarterly increases, although their gains were still substantial.

The June correction is equally important when reading the Ethylene Price Chart. The markets that experienced the strongest quarterly increases generally recorded some of the largest pullbacks during June.

This makes the chart useful for understanding not only where prices ended the quarter, but also how volatile the market became during the period.

Ethylene Price Index and Market Direction

The Ethylene Price Index during Q2 2026 was shaped mainly by the rise in crude oil and naphtha feedstock costs and the subsequent easing of those pressures in June.

The index movement reflects a wider market story rather than a single country's situation.

When multiple markets rise at the same time, it indicates that broader supply-chain or feedstock factors are influencing the market. That was the case during Q2 2026.

The June correction, on the other hand, indicates that buyers began adjusting procurement as the market moved away from its extreme levels.

For people following the petrochemical industry, the Ethylene Price Index can therefore provide a useful way to understand the direction and intensity of market movements across different regions.

Ethylene Prices and Downstream Demand

Feedstock costs were a major factor in Q2, but demand also remained important.

Across the monitored markets, ethylene prices stayed elevated with steady demand from polyethylene and downstream polymer buyers.

Ethylene is an important building block for many petrochemical products. As a result, changes in Ethylene prices can have a wider effect on downstream production costs.

When ethylene prices rise quickly, downstream buyers may review purchasing schedules, inventory levels, and procurement strategies. When prices begin to fall, buyers may also change their approach.

The June correction appears to have been influenced partly by buyers adjusting procurement during the month.

Ethylene Price Forecast and Market Outlook

Based on the Q2 2026 data provided, the most important takeaway for the future is that ethylene markets can react quickly to changes in feedstock costs, supply-chain conditions, geopolitical uncertainty, and buying behavior.

The Q2 movement should not simply be interpreted as a straight upward trend. The quarter showed both a major increase and a major correction.

For a future Ethylene Price Forecast, market participants would need to continue watching crude oil prices, naphtha costs, supply-chain conditions, geopolitical developments, and downstream polyethylene demand.

The June correction also shows why a quarterly percentage increase alone does not tell the complete story. A market can record a very large gain over a quarter while also experiencing a significant decline within that same period.

Therefore, future Ethylene Price Trends will depend heavily on whether feedstock pressures remain elevated or continue to ease, along with the direction of downstream demand.

Regional Q2 2026 Ethylene Price Movement at a Glance

The Q2 2026 changes in the supplied data were:

• Netherlands: +68.76%
  
  

• Germany: +67.40%
  
  

• Belgium: +66.11%
  
  

• Turkey: +58.31%
  
  

• Qatar: +56.02%
  
  

• South Korea: +53.47%
  
  

• China: +52.65%
  
  

• Saudi Arabia: +52.55%
  
  

• Japan: +51.32%
  
  

• USA: +41.48%
  
  

• Argentina: +37.58%
  
  

The June corrections were also substantial, ranging from approximately 19.63% in Turkey to around 31.93% in the Netherlands.

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About Price Watch™

Price Watch™ is an India-based, independent price reporting agency (PRA) that provides real-time price forecasts and data-driven insights into global raw material markets. It specializes in tracking prices, analyzing market trends, and delivering timely updates on plant shutdowns, supply disruptions, capacity expansions, and demand–supply dynamics. Price-Watch™ reporting goes beyond prices to include grade-level insights, applications, and country-level demand intelligence you can trust. Powered by AI forecasting and over a decade of historical data, the Price-Watch™ platform empowers manufacturers, traders, and procurement professionals to make faster, smarter decisions and turn market volatility into actionable opportunity. 

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