Ethanol Price Trend Q2 2026 | Price Trends, Forecast, Chart, Prices and Index

[Ajay Rajput]

The Ethanol Price Trend in Q2 2026 showed a clear difference between markets connected to US supply and those connected to Brazilian supply. US-linked markets generally saw higher prices because domestic availability was tighter and export demand remained firm.

 Brazilian-origin markets moved in the opposite direction as ample sugarcane-based supply placed downward pressure on prices. This created a very different picture from one region to another, making the quarter an interesting period for understanding how supply, demand, trade flows, and buying activity can influence Ethanol Prices.

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Ethanol Price Trend in Q2 2026

Ethanol is widely used in fuel blending and also has industrial applications, including use as a solvent. Because of this, its price can be affected by several different parts of the market at the same time.

During Q2 2026, the most important factor was the difference between the two major origins covered in the market data: the United States and Brazil.

US-linked ethanol prices moved higher through most of the quarter. Tight domestic supply and firm export demand supported FOB Houston prices. As these export prices increased, the effect was passed through to many importing countries. India, the Netherlands, Belgium, and several other destinations recorded significant increases.

Brazil-linked prices followed a different path. Ample sugarcane-based supply placed pressure on FOB Santos prices. As a result, markets importing ethanol from Brazil also experienced declines.

This difference in origin was one of the most important features of the Q2 2026 Ethanol Price Trend.

June brought another interesting change. Many markets experienced a correction during the month as buyers moderated procurement. However, not every market followed the same pattern. Belgium, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom continued to record small increases in their US-linked prices, showing that local demand and buying activity can sometimes offset a broader market correction.

US Ethanol Market

The US market recorded a strong increase during Q2 2026. The Ethanol Price Trend in the USA increased by approximately 12.94% during the quarter.

The main reason was tighter domestic ethanol availability combined with firm export demand. When supply becomes less comfortable while buyers continue to need the product, prices can move higher. That was the basic pattern seen in the US market during this period.

FOB Houston export prices climbed steadily through the quarter. Demand from fuel blending and industrial solvent users helped keep the market firm.

However, June brought some relief. Ethanol Prices in the USA declined by approximately 3.31% during June as buyers moderated their procurement.

This monthly correction did not completely erase the quarterly increase. It mainly showed that buyers became more cautious after prices had moved higher earlier in the quarter.

Saudi Arabia and US-Linked Imports

Saudi Arabia also recorded a strong increase because higher US export prices passed through into the import market.

The Ethanol Price Trend in Saudi Arabia increased by around 12.08% in Q2 2026. CIF Jeddah prices followed the movement in US FOB prices, while demand from fuel blending and industrial solvent users remained steady.

In June, the market corrected by approximately 2.17% as buyers reduced their procurement activity.

This is a useful example of how an increase at the exporting end can affect prices at the importing end. Import markets do not always move independently. When their supply depends heavily on a particular origin, changes in that origin can quickly become visible in local import prices.

Colombia and South Korea

Colombia recorded an increase of approximately 11.16% during Q2 2026. Higher US FOB prices were reflected in CIF Barranquilla import values. Demand remained steady, supporting the market during most of the quarter.

June brought a decline of approximately 1.88%, reflecting more cautious buying.

South Korea experienced an even stronger quarterly increase. The Ethanol Price Trend in South Korea rose by around 12.55%. Firm US export prices were passed through to CIF Busan values, while fuel blending and industrial demand remained supportive.

In June, South Korean Ethanol Prices declined by around 3.01% as buyers moderated procurement.

These two markets demonstrate that the same international supply factor can influence different importing regions while the size of the monthly correction depends on local buying conditions.

Taiwan, Thailand and Mexico

Taiwan recorded a quarterly increase of approximately 8.50%, making its gain smaller than several other US-linked markets. Even so, the market remained supported by higher US export prices and steady demand.

June was more challenging, with Ethanol Prices in Taiwan falling by approximately 9.30%. This was one of the larger monthly corrections among the US-linked markets.

Thailand recorded a quarterly increase of approximately 7.53%. The market benefited from higher US-linked pricing, but June brought a decline of around 6.22% as procurement activity softened.

Mexico also experienced an increase, with its Q2 price rising by approximately 9.85%. However, June prices declined by approximately 7.37%.

These markets show why quarterly and monthly movements should be considered separately. A market can record a meaningful quarterly increase while still experiencing a sizeable correction during the final month.

India and the Netherlands

India recorded one of the largest increases among the US-linked markets. The Ethanol Price Trend in India rose by approximately 16.83% during Q2 2026.

Higher US FOB prices passed through into CIF Nhava Sheva values. Demand from fuel blending and industrial solvent applications helped keep prices elevated during much of the quarter.

However, June saw a small correction of approximately 0.78%.

The Netherlands recorded an even higher quarterly increase of approximately 15.09%. CIF Rotterdam prices were supported by firm US export pricing and steady import demand.

Interestingly, the Netherlands did not follow the broader June correction. Instead, Ethanol Prices increased by approximately 0.92% in June, showing that local import demand remained firm.

Belgium and the United Kingdom

Belgium recorded a quarterly increase of approximately 13.94%, while the United Kingdom increased by around 13.03%.

Both markets were supported by higher US-linked export prices and steady import demand.

June was particularly interesting in these markets. Belgium recorded another increase of approximately 0.41%, while the United Kingdom increased by around 0.77%.

These small gains were different from the declines seen in many other US-linked destinations. The difference suggests that local buying conditions remained supportive even while several other markets were entering a correction phase.

Other US-Linked Markets

Several other markets also recorded increases during Q2 2026.

Egypt saw its Ethanol Price Trend increase by approximately 12.58%, followed by a June decline of 2.82%.

Indonesia increased by approximately 11.54%, with a June correction of around 5.71%.

The Philippines increased by approximately 12.08%, followed by a 3.47% decline in June.

Singapore rose by approximately 10.24%, before falling by around 4.01% in June.

Germany increased by approximately 11.23%, followed by a 6.16% June correction.

Chile increased by approximately 11.96%, while June prices declined by around 5.61%.

Canada increased by approximately 11.57%, followed by a 2.13% June decline.

Peru recorded a smaller quarterly increase of approximately 6.69%, but its June correction was significant at around 13.19%.

Overall, these figures show that US-linked markets shared a common upward influence during the quarter, but their monthly performance varied considerably.

Brazil Ethanol Price Trend

Brazil followed a completely different direction during Q2 2026.

The Ethanol Price Trend in Brazil declined by approximately 6.74% during the quarter. The main factor was ample sugarcane-based ethanol supply.

When supply is readily available and export demand is softer, sellers generally face more pressure to keep prices competitive. This was reflected in FOB Santos prices during Q2 2026.

The market weakened progressively through the quarter, and June brought another decline of approximately 5.33%.

This made the Brazilian market almost the opposite of the US market during the same period.

Brazil-Linked Import Markets

The impact of lower Brazilian prices was also visible in importing countries.

The Philippines recorded a quarterly decline of approximately 7.26% for ethanol imported from Brazil. June brought another decline of around 6.36%.

India experienced a much smaller quarterly decline of approximately 0.75%, but June prices fell by around 5.79%.

Japan declined by approximately 6.38% during Q2, followed by a June decline of approximately 4.63%.

Belgium declined by around 5.54%, while June prices fell by approximately 4.81%.

The Netherlands declined by approximately 6.14%, followed by a June decrease of around 3.29%.

South Korea declined by approximately 6.94%, with another 3.86% decrease in June.

Singapore recorded the largest quarterly decline among the listed Brazil-linked markets, falling by approximately 7.18%. June brought another decline of around 3.74%.

The pattern was consistent: lower Brazilian export values were transmitted into the import markets, although the size of the movement varied from one destination to another.

Ethanol Price Chart: Understanding the Market Difference

An Ethanol Price Chart for Q2 2026 would show two very different lines.

The first line would represent US-linked markets, which generally moved upward during the quarter. The second would represent Brazilian-linked markets, which generally moved downward.

This origin-based difference is important because it shows that the global ethanol market cannot always be understood through one average price.

The main quarterly movements included:

• USA: +12.94%
  
  

• Saudi Arabia, US origin: +12.08%
  
  

• Colombia, US origin: +11.16%
  
  

• South Korea, US origin: +12.55%
  
  

• Taiwan, US origin: +8.50%
  
  

• Belgium, US origin: +13.94%
  
  

• Netherlands, US origin: +15.09%
  
  

• India, US origin: +16.83%
  
  

• United Kingdom, US origin: +13.03%
  
  

• Brazil: -6.74%
  
  

• Philippines, Brazil origin: -7.26%
  
  

• India, Brazil origin: -0.75%
  
  

• Japan, Brazil origin: -6.38%
  
  

• Belgium, Brazil origin: -5.54%
  
  

• Netherlands, Brazil origin: -6.14%
  
  

• South Korea, Brazil origin: -6.94%
  
  

• Singapore, Brazil origin: -7.18%
  
  

The chart would therefore make the origin-driven divergence very easy to see.

Ethanol Price Index

The Ethanol Price Index during Q2 2026 was shaped mainly by contrasting supply conditions in the United States and Brazil.

The US side was supported by tighter supply and firm export demand. This created upward pressure on export prices and, in turn, on the prices paid by importing countries.

Brazil had a different supply situation. Ample sugarcane-based availability placed downward pressure on export values. Importing markets connected to Brazilian supply consequently experienced lower prices.

The index therefore reflected not just demand, but also where the ethanol was coming from.

This is an important point for anyone tracking ethanol markets. Two countries importing the same product can experience completely different price movements depending on their source of supply.

Ethanol Price Forecast

Looking at the Q2 2026 information, future Ethanol Prices will continue to depend heavily on supply availability, export demand, procurement decisions, and origin.

If US supply remains tight and export demand stays firm, US-linked prices could continue to receive support. However, the June corrections show that buyers may become more cautious when prices remain elevated.

For Brazil, ample sugarcane-based supply could continue to influence prices if availability remains comfortable and export demand does not strengthen significantly.

The most important point is that a forecast should not be treated as a fixed outcome. Ethanol prices can change when production conditions, demand, inventories, trade flows, or purchasing patterns change.

What the Q2 2026 Ethanol Market Tells Us

The Q2 2026 market provides a simple lesson: origin matters.

US-linked ethanol markets generally moved higher because of tighter supply and strong export demand. Brazilian-linked markets generally moved lower because of ample sugarcane-based supply.

The June data adds another layer to the story. Many US-linked markets corrected lower as buyers moderated procurement, while several European markets continued to rise modestly. Brazil-linked markets generally experienced additional declines.

This means that looking only at a global average price can hide important differences. A better approach is to consider the origin, delivery basis, local demand, and supply conditions behind each price.

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