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Gildo Santiago

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Jun 12, 2024, 6:10:32 AM6/12/24
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Well, for pretty much the same reason that we undertake any analytics study. If we can develop an objective scale which measures the intensity of a press then coaches can quickly see at a glance the strength, or otherwise, of the high pressing that their opposition has utilised in recent games. Teams or fans can also assess how much pressure their team exerted on the opposition in deep positions, and who knows, perhaps in time we will be able to assess the effectiveness that individual players have on the ability of their team to press. In essence we can take what is otherwise a subjective description and reduce it to one number so that it allows for comparison, analysis and ranking, if so desired.

For this analysis I am not concerned about whether the opposition made or completed passes. I want to measure the pressure that the defending team puts on the opposition players when they are in possession of the ball; and I think those four stats suffice in this regard. I am developing a descriptive measure, and at this stage whether the press is successful or not is not the aim of this initial step.

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The PPDA metric is calculated by dividing the number of passes allowed by the defending team by the total number of defensive actions; both values will be calculated with reference to a specific area of the pitch.

Not every pressing team will press all of the time; perhaps they wait for certain pressing triggers, other than just the position of the ball. However, this metric provides an objective measurement as it is calculated with reference to the number of times that it is possible for the defensive team to press, ie on all opposition passes in the specified area of the pitch.

The major decision I had to make was in relation to the area of the pitch that I wanted to use to measure the intensity of the pressing. I am conscious that there is probably no right or wrong answer for this, but I tossed it around for a few days and I also asked Rene Maric from the excellent Spielverlagerung tactics focussed site. The short answer is that we both eventually settled on the pitch area that, in Opta parlance, has an x co-ordinate of greater than 40.

From now on, all PPDA values refer to PPDA Beyond40 (ie the metric only uses defensive actions and oppositon passes that occurred beyond the x=40 line) as that is the boundary I have decided to use to assess the intensity of the high pressing by the defending team.

Pep Guardialo is another famed exponent of the high defensive press, first at Barcelona and also now at Bayern Munich. He clearly believes in pressing aggressively in offensive areas in an attempt to regain possession very quickly. Unfortunately, for Barcelona, the man that was chosen to succeed Pep, Tito Vilanova, at the end of the 2011/12 season seemed to have a different view of how his team should defend.

The above Barcelona plot is very useful as it shows the impact that a manager can have on the intensity that a team presses with, regardless of the players at their disposal. And I believe it also provides an answer as to why anyone would wish to measure this at all.

We have seen in the two examples cited in this piece that whether teams press or not seems to be a decision of the manager or coaching staff. It appears that the right group of players is capable of playing whatever way is asked of them. It follows therefore that the position of the leagues in the next table is attributable to the tactics that are pervasive throughout the respective leagues:

Out of the 20 leagues / seasons that we have the data for, the 2013/14 EPL season has got the highest PPDA value, ie it seen the least amount of pressing. It seems that Mauricio Pochettino is still very much the exception, and not the norm in the Premier League.

Those teams on the right of the chart seemed to be content with basically conceding possession in the opposition half and presumably funnelling men back behind the ball to defend much closer to their own goal.

As a final check on which of the boundaries to use (x =33, 40 or 50) I actually collated and analysed the data for all three potential boundaries. Obviously some teams will differ in the intensity of their pressing depending on which of our potential cut offs we use, however, it was encouraging to see that there was actually quite a high degree of correlation between all the potential cut off values.

The pressing metric value (PPDA) at x= 40 explains more than 90% of the PPDA at each of the other potential boundaries. So as well as making practical football sense to use x=40 as the boundary for this metric it is clearly a good approximation of how teams press regardless of the exact cut off value that is used.

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The objectives of this study were to investigate the effect that the presence of two stimuli that require two different responses (dual-attention) has both, on offensive reaction-response time to a light stimulus, and on defensive response time when the stimulus is a real fencing attack. Twenty-five elite fencers and a fencing master were included in the study. The equipment included four force plates adapted to a scaffold that served as a fencing piste. Two force plates were placed, at the start position, under the fencer's feet and another two plates were placed under the master's feet. The results demonstrate that choice reaction time to visual stimuli increases in dual-task conditions with respect to simple reaction time, whereas the mean horizontal force tends to decrease in dual-task. However, when the stimulus was an opponent's movement, dual-task conditions did not have any effect on the time required to initiate a defensive action. The changes in reaction time when real movements were used as stimuli challenge the validity of the reaction time to visual stimuli paradigm as a predictor of performance in fencing. Also, the results obtained demonstrate that perceptual and attentional processes play a major role in fencer performance in real competition.

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While looking at various statistics in a simulated 'manager holiday' save I noticed the 'Opposition Passes Per Defensive Action' stat and didn't know what it was so did some digging online. For those who don't know it's the average number of passes a team allows the opposition to have in their own defensive area before commiting to a defensive action (tackle, foul, interception etc). Real life examples would show that a high intensity pressing team such as Bielsa's Leeds would have a lower score in this metric than a deep countering team such as Benitez's Everton who would instead sit back and only press in their own half.

While researching what the stat meant every table I saw for real life Premier League examples of this stat seems to be somewhere around the 8 mark. On my save the highest is 4.1! Now something is either exceptionally wrong within the match engine or I'm completely misunderstanding it and OPPDA in FM means something completely different to OPPDA on pretty much every stats website for real life football.

I could understand a human players team being an outlier as we approach the game with some meta-knowledge of what works in the game engine but for AI managers to be pressing around twice the rate of real life seems iffy. Or is this stat presented differently and mean something else in FM?

One reason that could be is that real life examples of this stat are maybe not incorporating certain scenarios such as corner clearances and such where the 2nd ball is often won by an attacking player? That's a complete guess though as I have no knowledge on what 'actions' real life staticians and FM stats count within the metric of OPPDA.

Editor's note: In further researching this topic, I realized the stats pulled for sacks, interceptions, forced fumbles and fumble recoveries were those against a team. For whatever reason, ESPN lists those under "defense," which is insanely stupid, but it also renders these numbers invalid. I apologize for the error, I'm working on a comparative review of this season and the last two seasons with the correct data. Hoping to have that up 10/15. -nc

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