HW#3 & 4 Answers

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Jonathan Carandang

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Apr 15, 2011, 2:49:57 PM4/15/11
to Collins OMIS357 Spring 2011
Attahched are my answers.
Regards
Jonathan
forecasting_homework_iv (Jon C).pdf
forecasting_homework_iii (Jon C).pdf

Jonathan Carandang

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Apr 15, 2011, 2:56:29 PM4/15/11
to Collins OMIS357 Spring 2011
Sorry, We're only responsible for Prob 3 of HW 3. Please ignore Probs
1 and 2.

Still need to work on Process Analysis. Will add later.
Ciao
Jonathan

On Apr 15, 11:49 am, Jonathan Carandang <joncarand...@yahoo.com>
wrote:
> Attahched are my answers.
> Regards
> Jonathan
>
>  forecasting_homework_iv (Jon C).pdf
> 21KViewDownload
>
>  forecasting_homework_iii (Jon C).pdf
> 54KViewDownload

Girish Kumar

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Apr 16, 2011, 10:22:40 AM4/16/11
to collins-omis3...@googlegroups.com, Jonathan Carandang, giris...@gmail.com
Hi Jonathan,
 
I know all of you have been reporting same answers for HW 4 (MAD, MSE, MAPE). But professor's direction was to take the data from Aug 10 onwards, then make the MA3 calculations, that is Aug 10, 11, 14 has no forecast data, Aug 15 should be the first with forecast data. 
 
Also, first error data (Ft-Dt) should be possible only for Aug 16 since Ft is the forecast made  in the previous period (Aug 15) and Dt is the actual data for the current period (Aug 16). With this my MAD value for MA3 comes to 84.72.
 
Let me know if I misread something. Look at the numbers below (the headings are little misaligned)
Date Dow 30 (Dt) MA3 (Ft)  Error (Ft - Dt) Absolute      Error    MAD
                                                                                                                      84.72
10-Aug-06 11,124.37
11-Aug-06 11,088.02
14-Aug-06 11,097.87
15-Aug-06 11,230.26 11,103.42
16-Aug-06 11,327.12 11,138.72 -223.70 223.70
17-Aug-06 11,334.96 11,218.42 -196.24 196.24
18-Aug-06 11,381.47 11,297.45 -163.05 163.05
21-Aug-06 11,345.04 11,347.85 -47.59 47.59
22-Aug-06 11,339.84 11,353.82 8.01 8.01
23-Aug-06 11,297.90 11,355.45 55.92 55.92
24-Aug-06 11,304.46 11,327.59 50.99 50.99
25-Aug-06 11,284.05 11,314.07 43.54 43.54
28-Aug-06 11,352.01 11,295.47 -37.94 37.94
29-Aug-06 11,369.94 11,313.51 -74.47 74.47
30-Aug-06 11,382.91 11,335.33 -69.40 69.40
31-Aug-06 11,381.15 11,368.29 -45.82 45.82
 
Regards,
Girish

alex smirnov

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Apr 16, 2011, 10:44:29 AM4/16/11
to collins-omis3...@googlegroups.com, Girish Kumar, Jonathan Carandang
Hi Girish,

I think you may be reading too deeply into this.  We already had all the data calculated from Aug 10 onwards.  All I think is necessary, is to calculate the metrics prof indicated based on those numbers.

The data I used is highlited and the actual answers are in bold

Alex
dow.jpg
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