1000 Years Movie

[Serafin Sonnier]

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Every year on my birthday (January 5), I like to conduct some interesting exercise that will push me to grow in a new way. In past years, I've written gratitude letters to all of my close family and friends, gone on a 10-hour silent walk, and done a lengthy self-reflection process.

I am fortunate to know several nonagenarians, but to add to the robustness of the response, I put the question out with a number of friends with older grandparents or great-grandparents. In total, there was over 1,000 years of lived experience captured. You can find photos at the end of the article of several of the participants (shared with their permission).

My theoretical scenario has a isolated population of 100 placed in a temperate fertile environment, with little to no negative factors affecting growth such as war, radiation, predators, disease etc. Considering this, how much would this community's population be expected to grow within a thousand years?

I don't suppose I need to tell you that this is a very big number and I hope this illustrates that we need more information about your society. Fertility rates depend on culture, it would depend on many different things:

All these factors could change the fertility rate. However in the past the fertility rate has been related to the mortality rate, the higher the mortality rate the more children each family would have so that, chances were, at least one would live to carry on the family name. Assuming this trend still holds we can assume modern day average family sizes of around about 1.7 children per family. The average age of mothers lies in the 25-34 age band assuming this is an even spread we can say use a generation gap of 30 years again. So lets use our other equation and stick those number in:$$ 100*1.7^\frac100030 = 4.8\times 10^9 $$Giving us a population of 4.8 billion. This, however, is fraught with assumptions and generalisations. It doesn't have anything to account for mortality rate, the capacity of the land to feed this many people, cultural factors etc etc.

However the formula there can be used as a guide, you can choose your own fertility rates, generation gap and such to guide you. Without more information about your world we can't really give you any more than generalisations.

Even assuming that there are 50 healthy breeding pairs, any offspring after a couple of generations would encounter a serious genetic bottleneck, resulting in various health issues. Death through natural causes such as falling off a cliff, underlying conditions, etc, will further reduce this poll. Depending on the level of medical technology, infant mortality might also be high. The humans might also not have adequate tools to harness the fertile environment, reducing the number of individuals the colony could support.

According to this handy population calculator, the number would be almost 15 million (assuming there's enough resources to supply those people with what they need) at a growth rate of 1.2%.

There is a certain level of population for a given environment, resources and level of technology that is stable - where it doesn't increase due to resource constraints, and any local excess of population generally is "spent" on resource conflicts.

This is a big one. Your community could be colonists, sent to colonize some distant land/planet/whatever. If that's the case, they would most likely be 50 virile breeding pairs, hand-picked to produce the largest possible second generation, in order to increase the colony size as quickly as possible. If that's the case, you can assume a high starting growth rate, and a much higher end population.

The demographics of your starting 100 people (let's call them Gen I) will have a profound effect on the number of children they have (Gen II), and that in turn will directly affect the population's growth rate for the remaining 1000 years. Change one male to a female, for example, and the ensuing butterfly effect could affect your final population by a significant, and possibly surprising margin.

@Masterzagh already noted that the ratio of men to women will affect the side of Gen II: the further you get from 50:50, the less potential breeding pairs there are, and the smaller Gen II will be. But there are a few other factors as well:

Combine all these factors together and you might even find yourself hitting what's called a "population bottleneck", where you don't have enough people for your colony to be self-sustaining without resorting to in-breeding. And as @fractalwrench already noted, having ninja'd me... that's very bad.

And all that is just the start. Once you've got your Gen II, assuming you haven't hit the bottleneck, you'll have to move on to Gen III, then Gen IV, and so on. And from there, as I mentioned earlier, your population will gradually spiral upwards and become very difficult to predict. It could go anywhere from the millions up to the billions. It's almost impossible to say. But it will be influenced greatly by that initial burst of population growth.

I just tossed in that last paragraph because it used to piss the shit out of me. In the short term. But I should shut up really. In the long term, I had it pretty good. In one form or other, I worked for lynda.com for more than 15 years. I had a weekly series that featured my name and another word that rhymed with it. I did whatever I wanted and I was celebrated.

Have you ever used an app like Lensa? Feed it a bunch of selfies and it generates a handful of AI portraits. Which are flattering, to be sure, but they're hardly impeccable. In fact, they can be riddled with flaws. All of which you can fix using the copious retouching tools in Photoshop.

We have records with dates far into the future (i.e. 3/9/3006) which are causing issues. Is there a way to update a date field to -1,000 years? Currently I have to look up the values of ten date fields in each record and then update each one like this. (This is Cerner CCL but you should be able to understand it). I can run PL/SQL in SQL Developer.

Your attempt should work with only a small modification. You only said "it didn't work", but you didn't explain what that means. I assume it's what I noticed on my system: the interval literal throws an error about "precision too small".

If you read the documentation, you will see that an interval literal takes an optional parameter for "precision". Your number of years, 1000, is a four-digit number, which is more than the default precision of the interval literal (the default is just 2 digits).

To write this, I followed my nose through whole libraries (both online and off), hunting through 1000 years of history to produce a chunky tome that tries to set the record straight about the long tragi-comedy of relations between the French and all us English-speakers.

Like everyone else, I always suspected that the mistrust had something to do with 1066, Agincourt, Waterloo and all that, but I felt that most of our battles were too far in the past to have much effect on the present. So I decided to delve into that past and come up with a more accurate answer.

The concept of a day equaling 1000 years does not affect the measurement of time in terms of seconds, minutes, or hours. These units of time remain the same regardless of the length of a day. However, it does affect the measurement of larger units of time, such as days, weeks, months, and years.

This concept suggests that time is relative and can be perceived differently depending on the context in which it is measured. It also highlights the concept of time dilation, where time can appear to move at different rates depending on the relative speed or gravitational pull of an observer.

This concept is closely related to the theory of relativity, which states that time and space are relative and can be perceived differently depending on the frame of reference. The idea of a day equaling 1000 years is an extreme example of this theory, demonstrating the relativity of time.

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