Be approximately right rather than exactly wrong.
Dave Berkus
CogLab UC Berkeley
Hello CogLab,
Are you one of those "must be precise" people or can you stand to be "approximately wrong?" We have some insight about this today that I think you'll like. Please read on...
Tuesday, October 8th, 2024
Be approximately right rather than exactly wrong.
John Tukey, coiner of the word ‘bit’ to describe a single switch of digital micro-data made this provocative statement. Tukey was a statistician; one you would expect to describe events in terms reeking with precision.
Where’s the precision in that?
Instead, Tukey of asking for precision as we’d expect, he implored us to think in terms of relevancy, cause and comparisons to known events. Wow!
Apply this to investors and entrepreneurs.
And all this ethereal talk makes me think of how we investors and entrepreneurs are often led to search for instances in which our plan can be wrong, based upon a past measure. Or how one fact in an argument can be disproved, making the entire argument in error in the minds of some.
And once again: jockey or horse?
Yet, if we do bet upon the jockey with more weight in our decisions to invest than upon the horse (or business plan), then our goal is to be approximately right and not to discount the plan for failure of one element which can be proved precisely wrong.
One of my favorite (good) stories
To read the rest of this insight on Dave's blog, click here...
Note: Images in this newsletter and blog created by Dave using unique prompts with DALL-e or Midjourney AI. See link for prompt.
You can purchase this and more than 350 insights contained inside the books and audio books in the Berkonomics series at my Amazon store by clicking here - but of course only after reading this week's insight.
EVENTS, TV and VIDEOS
Dave's YouTube channel:: "Startup Masterclass from Dave Berkus"
Dave's TEDx talk: "Smiling at success, laughing at failure."
The"Berkus Method" of valuing early stage businesses
SELECTED BERKONOMICS POSTS
* You are watched, mostly when decisions are tough.
* The lion and the ant: A managerial lesson.
* OUCH! If only I had learned this before losing millions.
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