Adding a problem statement: Let's help Americans beat traffic congestion
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Paul Minett
Jan 10, 2012, 3:22:14 PM1/10/12
to Code4Livability
Hi Everyone.
Rising to the challenge, I have drafted a problem statement, as
follows
Let’s help Americans beat traffic congestion!
On average, one out of eleven (9%) of the road-based to-work trips
Americans make are made as a passenger – in a car, van, or bus. What
that really means is that (mostly) ONE out of eleven Americans makes
ALL of their road-based to-work trips as a passenger, and the OTHER
TEN make them as drivers. Traffic congestion is caused by there being
too many vehicles, and there is exactly the same number of vehicles on
the road as there are drivers on the road at any given time. One
important solution to traffic congestion is therefore to reduce the
number of people driving to work each day. If EVERYONE took some
responsibility for the change – and if people who currently drive
every day became a passenger one day per week, (or didn’t use the road
one day per week), there would be about 20% less traffic. That is
enough to get rid of the most serious traffic congestion in most major
metropolitan areas.
The benefits would be huge. Demand for parking would fall, so parking
space could be repurposed to be offices, classrooms, factories, shops,
or green space. Energy consumption would fall. Tailpipe emissions
from transportation would fall. Demand for infrastructure expansion
would fall. Delay to goods movement would fall. In these tight
economic times, households and businesses would save money, and demand
for government spending would fall.
There are solutions that can help people to become passengers (and
there is massive capacity in the empty seats in existing vehicles), or
to not travel, but these are not being used enough. For any given
road or corridor, no-one has the information about how many fewer
people should drive, to bring that road, that hour of that day, into
free-flow. There is no system in place that helps people to choose
the day of the week that they will not be a driver, and perhaps make a
pledge to not drive that day for a year. But it is clear that
defeating congestion is as simple as everyone who currently drives
every day deciding to not drive, one day per week. We all make
traffic congestion happen, and working together we could all make it
stop, at incredibly low cost.
This is NOT a challenge to develop new ride-matching software. It is
a challenge to develop a decision-support tool that can help people
decide to seek out the solutions that already exist, and begin to make
better use of them – as little as one day per week – and to help
spread the message about the need for everyone to engage and
participate on the same basis.
Notes: This proposed problem statement supports the Livability
Principles in the following ways:
1. It will help create demand for more ridesharing services, and help
ridesharing services achieve critical mass – thereby providing more
transportation choices.
2. It will reduce the cost for all people to get to work (sharing
rides lowers costs), reduce demand for parking, reduce emissions, and
reduce demand for expanded infrastructure – thereby enhancing economic
competitiveness.
3. It will leave money in people’s pockets that will likely be spent
in the communities in which they live – thereby supporting existing
communities.
Rising to the challenge, I have drafted a problem statement, as
follows
Let’s help Americans beat traffic congestion!
On average, one out of eleven (9%) of the road-based to-work trips
Americans make are made as a passenger – in a car, van, or bus. What
that really means is that (mostly) ONE out of eleven Americans makes
ALL of their road-based to-work trips as a passenger, and the OTHER
TEN make them as drivers. Traffic congestion is caused by there being
too many vehicles, and there is exactly the same number of vehicles on
the road as there are drivers on the road at any given time. One
important solution to traffic congestion is therefore to reduce the
number of people driving to work each day. If EVERYONE took some
responsibility for the change – and if people who currently drive
every day became a passenger one day per week, (or didn’t use the road
one day per week), there would be about 20% less traffic. That is
enough to get rid of the most serious traffic congestion in most major
metropolitan areas.
The benefits would be huge. Demand for parking would fall, so parking
space could be repurposed to be offices, classrooms, factories, shops,
or green space. Energy consumption would fall. Tailpipe emissions
from transportation would fall. Demand for infrastructure expansion
would fall. Delay to goods movement would fall. In these tight
economic times, households and businesses would save money, and demand
for government spending would fall.
There are solutions that can help people to become passengers (and
there is massive capacity in the empty seats in existing vehicles), or
to not travel, but these are not being used enough. For any given
road or corridor, no-one has the information about how many fewer
people should drive, to bring that road, that hour of that day, into
free-flow. There is no system in place that helps people to choose
the day of the week that they will not be a driver, and perhaps make a
pledge to not drive that day for a year. But it is clear that
defeating congestion is as simple as everyone who currently drives
every day deciding to not drive, one day per week. We all make
traffic congestion happen, and working together we could all make it
stop, at incredibly low cost.
This is NOT a challenge to develop new ride-matching software. It is
a challenge to develop a decision-support tool that can help people
decide to seek out the solutions that already exist, and begin to make
better use of them – as little as one day per week – and to help
spread the message about the need for everyone to engage and
participate on the same basis.
Notes: This proposed problem statement supports the Livability
Principles in the following ways:
1. It will help create demand for more ridesharing services, and help
ridesharing services achieve critical mass – thereby providing more
transportation choices.
2. It will reduce the cost for all people to get to work (sharing
rides lowers costs), reduce demand for parking, reduce emissions, and
reduce demand for expanded infrastructure – thereby enhancing economic
competitiveness.
3. It will leave money in people’s pockets that will likely be spent
in the communities in which they live – thereby supporting existing
communities.
John Canfield
Jan 12, 2012, 6:08:13 PM1/12/12
to Code4Livability
Hi Paul,
Great description of the benefit from more ride-sharing and
alternative transit.
I am optimistic that GPS enabled smart-phones can transform how people
access alternative transportation. The key is software that gives
users the full view of their transportation options -- public
transportation, shuttles, vanpools, taxis, jitneys, bicycles, ride-
shares, loaner cars, and personal cars. If a user has an app that
helps them get to work optimally no matter what their transit mode,
then over time we can introduce them to the ride-sharing and other
alternatives that require critical mass.
I am looking forward to meeting everyone at the Code4Livability and
discussing more. In the meantime, check out my blog at www.networkcommuting.com/blog
John Canfield
Great description of the benefit from more ride-sharing and
alternative transit.
I am optimistic that GPS enabled smart-phones can transform how people
access alternative transportation. The key is software that gives
users the full view of their transportation options -- public
transportation, shuttles, vanpools, taxis, jitneys, bicycles, ride-
shares, loaner cars, and personal cars. If a user has an app that
helps them get to work optimally no matter what their transit mode,
then over time we can introduce them to the ride-sharing and other
alternatives that require critical mass.
I am looking forward to meeting everyone at the Code4Livability and
discussing more. In the meantime, check out my blog at www.networkcommuting.com/blog
John Canfield
Paul Minett
Jan 13, 2012, 11:14:09 PM1/13/12
to Code4Livability
Hi John and all
I agree that it is possible that GPS enabled smart-phones could
transform how people access alternative transportation. However I
suggest it is dangerous to see this as a panacea or silver bullet.
The problem we have is not a shortage of methods for becoming
passengers, but a lack of desire to become passengers.
Much of the effort is focused on getting drivers to pick up
passengers. If all we do is scrap over the same group of people who
are prepared to be passengers, then we will see little change,
regardless of how clever the technology is.
I agree that making it easier to become a passenger should increase
the proportion of people who choose to be passengers, but will this be
enough? Realise that even with the tremendous success of GPS enabled
smart phones, not everyone has one. In fact, the penetration is still
relatively low.
The slug-lines in Washington DC show that technology is not needed for
people to find others to share with, and some 6,000 people become
passengers each day in that system.
I really hope this code event focuses on the information needed to
help people choose to be passengers, rather than the development of
more clever software to help people find matches.
Looking forward to the discussion.
Pau Minett
> > communities.- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -
I agree that it is possible that GPS enabled smart-phones could
transform how people access alternative transportation. However I
suggest it is dangerous to see this as a panacea or silver bullet.
The problem we have is not a shortage of methods for becoming
passengers, but a lack of desire to become passengers.
Much of the effort is focused on getting drivers to pick up
passengers. If all we do is scrap over the same group of people who
are prepared to be passengers, then we will see little change,
regardless of how clever the technology is.
I agree that making it easier to become a passenger should increase
the proportion of people who choose to be passengers, but will this be
enough? Realise that even with the tremendous success of GPS enabled
smart phones, not everyone has one. In fact, the penetration is still
relatively low.
The slug-lines in Washington DC show that technology is not needed for
people to find others to share with, and some 6,000 people become
passengers each day in that system.
I really hope this code event focuses on the information needed to
help people choose to be passengers, rather than the development of
more clever software to help people find matches.
Looking forward to the discussion.
Pau Minett
>
> - Show quoted text -
MFerrier
Jan 14, 2012, 5:19:52 PM1/14/12
to Code4Livability
How about a crowd-sourced effort/GPS enabled effort to track where the
bus is on its route so that riders can make decisions about taking the
bus easier? Can we do this with smart phones versus the $100,000+
solutions of GPS-enabled buses?
Michelle
bus is on its route so that riders can make decisions about taking the
bus easier? Can we do this with smart phones versus the $100,000+
solutions of GPS-enabled buses?
Michelle
John Canfield
Jan 16, 2012, 1:00:51 PM1/16/12
to Code4Livability
I agree that increasing the # of people who choose to be passengers is
the biggest problem we need to solve.
Right now, being a passenger often makes you a 2nd class citizen.
Without your own car in the suburbs it is more difficult to call on
customers, do errands, go out to lunch, stay late, or leave early to
pick up a sick child at school. We can transform this situation by
giving passengers more choices and resources to meet their needs and
make them feel first class. Zipcar has done a tremendous job making
city-dwellers without cars feel first class because they can get
whichever car they need when they need them. For commuting, the
solution needs to surface all the existing choices, match supply with
demand to create new choices, and make it easier for employers to
provide the right incentives. I'm not saying this is easy and I am
definitely not saying it already exists. I'm outlining a
possibility.
As for the drivers, I envision an app that can give you updates on all
your options to work, including driving (traffic conditions, how long
it will take on each route, etc). Then you can surface to the user
their alternatives, like public transit ridesharing, etc.
Looking forward to chatting more.
John Canfield
www.networkcommuting.com
the biggest problem we need to solve.
Right now, being a passenger often makes you a 2nd class citizen.
Without your own car in the suburbs it is more difficult to call on
customers, do errands, go out to lunch, stay late, or leave early to
pick up a sick child at school. We can transform this situation by
giving passengers more choices and resources to meet their needs and
make them feel first class. Zipcar has done a tremendous job making
city-dwellers without cars feel first class because they can get
whichever car they need when they need them. For commuting, the
solution needs to surface all the existing choices, match supply with
demand to create new choices, and make it easier for employers to
provide the right incentives. I'm not saying this is easy and I am
definitely not saying it already exists. I'm outlining a
possibility.
As for the drivers, I envision an app that can give you updates on all
your options to work, including driving (traffic conditions, how long
it will take on each route, etc). Then you can surface to the user
their alternatives, like public transit ridesharing, etc.
Looking forward to chatting more.
John Canfield
www.networkcommuting.com
Daniel Morgan
Jan 17, 2012, 8:16:19 AM1/17/12
to Code4Livability
This is an interesting discussion, to be sure! I'd like to throw out
another idea, if I may. It seems that a lot of the discussion is
around presenting choices prior to a driver making a particular
decision - which is helpful, to be sure. However, it may also be true
that some drivers are entrenched in their habits and, therefore, not
really interested in making a choice - so we need something to help
people see the consequences of their choices and what their options
might have been instead.
For instance, let's suppose that there was a way for a driver to
either automatically log their driving habits in their smartphone ...
or manually log their driving habits in some place in the cloud. What
if there was a way to load that data into a giant mixing bowl in the
cloud and "re-plan" those trips to see if there were transit or other
options available to that driver? Could we merge information about
their vehicle and show *personalized* fuel costs, using data from
fueleconomy.gov? Could we gather enough data to determine the total
landed cost of their driving trip (vehicle maintenance, fuel, and
parking) and compare that to a transit trip? Could we bring in
additional information, such as carbon emissions and calories burned
to show the external consequences of their driving habits?
In short, by showing the net effect of their driving choices to their
pocketbook and the environment ... and being transparent about how
alternatives might benefit that driver, can we nudge their behavior to
the desired outcome?
Dan
another idea, if I may. It seems that a lot of the discussion is
around presenting choices prior to a driver making a particular
decision - which is helpful, to be sure. However, it may also be true
that some drivers are entrenched in their habits and, therefore, not
really interested in making a choice - so we need something to help
people see the consequences of their choices and what their options
might have been instead.
For instance, let's suppose that there was a way for a driver to
either automatically log their driving habits in their smartphone ...
or manually log their driving habits in some place in the cloud. What
if there was a way to load that data into a giant mixing bowl in the
cloud and "re-plan" those trips to see if there were transit or other
options available to that driver? Could we merge information about
their vehicle and show *personalized* fuel costs, using data from
fueleconomy.gov? Could we gather enough data to determine the total
landed cost of their driving trip (vehicle maintenance, fuel, and
parking) and compare that to a transit trip? Could we bring in
additional information, such as carbon emissions and calories burned
to show the external consequences of their driving habits?
In short, by showing the net effect of their driving choices to their
pocketbook and the environment ... and being transparent about how
alternatives might benefit that driver, can we nudge their behavior to
the desired outcome?
Dan
Paul Minett
Jan 17, 2012, 8:53:10 PM1/17/12
to Code4Livability
Great suggestion, Dan.
An important goal is to encourage people to be in a mode of making a
decision, to be open, you might say, to more than one way of doing
things. It is interesting, though, to consider that if people are
prepared to log information in the way you suggest, they are probably
already open to considering alternatives.
I heard that the iPhone has a built-in tracking widget that knows
where you were over a fairly long period of time. It was a bit of a
scandal in the news a few months back.
How about if you could access that data as part of a conversation with
a traveler, and model the several different ways various trips might
have been taken. The user would not have to tell you what he actually
did. You could list the alternatives in a smart way that just showed
the different alternative cost, emission and time attributes for each
available mode. Knowing what he actually did, the traveller could see
if there would have been a better alternative.
If you could then get permission to amalgamate the results for
publishing purposes, you could show a large number of alternative real
trips that real people have taken, and analyse across that database
the impact of taking one mode versus others. Perhaps a clever
reporting of that data would create a community of interest by other
people who might then be prepared to submit their data for analysis.
All without having to log a single thing.
I can imagine some 'gosh' moments as people see the folly of their
entrenched behavior.
> > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -
An important goal is to encourage people to be in a mode of making a
decision, to be open, you might say, to more than one way of doing
things. It is interesting, though, to consider that if people are
prepared to log information in the way you suggest, they are probably
already open to considering alternatives.
I heard that the iPhone has a built-in tracking widget that knows
where you were over a fairly long period of time. It was a bit of a
scandal in the news a few months back.
How about if you could access that data as part of a conversation with
a traveler, and model the several different ways various trips might
have been taken. The user would not have to tell you what he actually
did. You could list the alternatives in a smart way that just showed
the different alternative cost, emission and time attributes for each
available mode. Knowing what he actually did, the traveller could see
if there would have been a better alternative.
If you could then get permission to amalgamate the results for
publishing purposes, you could show a large number of alternative real
trips that real people have taken, and analyse across that database
the impact of taking one mode versus others. Perhaps a clever
reporting of that data would create a community of interest by other
people who might then be prepared to submit their data for analysis.
All without having to log a single thing.
I can imagine some 'gosh' moments as people see the folly of their
entrenched behavior.
Daniel Morgan
Jan 20, 2012, 6:48:33 AM1/20/12
to Code4Livability
Building on this thread, folks might be interested in this report from
the Center for Urban Transportation Research, which posits a concept
called a "Personal Travel Coach." Check it out!
http://www.nctr.usf.edu/pdf/77609.pdf
Dan
the Center for Urban Transportation Research, which posits a concept
called a "Personal Travel Coach." Check it out!
http://www.nctr.usf.edu/pdf/77609.pdf
Dan
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