Nick,
I cannot be certain about this bird because it is a mixture of a soaring bird and a direct flight bird. Like you are saying Nick, it is likely that it will be headed NNE on the current winds. If it is flying in a direct flight all night, it could easily end up at Lake Superior. If instead it is choosing to navigate in soaring flight, we would have a very different story. Also, because this bird is so far afield from where it should be and it doesn't make meteorological sense why this bird would be here, I am not confident in saying what this bird is going to do. I appreciate the challenge, and it is tough to even communicate this appropriately because of all the uncertainty that surrounds this bird.
Thanks for pushing me though. I like the way you are thinking about this.
Bryan
Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO