This ClimateWire story was sent to you by: leo...@crai.com
Personal message: I don't know if the article will transmit this way, but it seems to me to have the right focus. First, concern is way down. Second, the partisan split continues to be very deep. Third, the electorate's beliefs about causation (nuclear power plants, spray cans) shows that they remain incorrigibly ignorant. If you follow the poll results through time, you will know that the plunge in concern has happened in the past when the economy turned down. The numbers NEVER, though, approach those for issues that people really care about like employment, health care, and national security.
An E&E Publishing Service
PUBLIC OPINION: Americans' concern about global warming still cooling -- poll (Tuesday, March 15, 2011)Christa Marshall, E&E reporterThe percentage of Americans who say they are concerned about global warming and think it's a man-made problem remains at much lower levels than a few years ago, Gallup reported yesterday. In its annual survey of environmental attitudes, the polling organization found that 51 percent of adults say they worry "a great deal" or a "fair amount" about the phenomenon, compared to 66 percent three years ago. Similarly, the percentage of Americans who say that the seriousness of global warming is exaggerated, 43 percent, is 8 points higher than in 2008. Less than half of those surveyed say that global warming has "already begun to happen," compared to 61 percent three years ago. Meanwhile, the percentage believing that increases in the Earth's temperature result from human pollution dropped almost 6 points over the same time frame, from 58 percent to 52 percent. "Americans are clearly less concerned about global warming and its effects than they were a few years ago," Gallup said in a statement. "While concerns across various measures did not continue to trend downward this year, they generally held stable near historical lows." The level of worry about global warming hovered above 60 percent between 2006 and 2009, with a steep decline occurring last year. There are various explanations for the drop in concern, Gallup said, including the economic downturn and the inclination of Americans to worry less about environmental problems under Democratic presidents. The organization also hinted that "controversies about the integrity of the data and analysis offered by global warming proponents" could be at play in public attitudes. Awareness grows even as concern dropsThe so-called "Climategate" scandal, in which leaked e-mails in November 2009 showed bickering among climate scientists, coincided with some of the drop in worry about the issue. Echoing many previous surveys, there remains a sharp partisan split in public opinion, with 72 percent of Democrats saying they worry a great deal or fair amount about warming temperatures, compared to 31 percent of Republicans. Independents are in the middle, at 51 percent. The poll also found that Americans' claims of understanding and awareness about the issue have increased over time, even as concern about it has dropped. Eighty percent of adults now say they understand the issue "very well" or fairly well, a jump of 11 percentage points from a decade ago. Even so, other research shows that Americans may not be as aware as they think. An analysis from the Yale Project on Climate Change released last month, for example, reported that a majority of Americans, or 61 percent, think the ozone layer causes global warming by "a lot" or "some," while 54 percent say that aerosol spray cans are to blame. An additional 44 percent say erroneously that they think nuclear power plants cause warming temperatures. "There is a huge gap between what experts know and what the public believes about this issue," said Anthony Leiserowitz, a Yale University professor who studies public opinion on climate change, in a recent interview. The Gallup poll was conducted March 3-6 among 1,021 adults. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Want to read more stories like this?Click here to start a free trial to E&E -- the best way to track policy and markets. About ClimateWireClimateWire is written and produced by the staff of E&E Publishing, LLC. It is designed to provide comprehensive, daily coverage of all aspects of climate change issues. From international agreements on carbon emissions to alternative energy technologies to state and federal GHG programs, ClimateWire plugs readers into the information they need to stay abreast of this sprawling, complex issue.
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Ken,
I think you are blase about the risks. I think we could be about to repeat the 'great dying' and come close to wiping out all or almost all advanced life on earth.
Until someone can prove this is not going to happen, I won't rest.
We need to properly model the methane feedback to constrain the risk.
A
<http://www.climatewire.net/>
An E&E Publishing Service
PUBLIC OPINION: Americans' concern about global warming still cooling -- poll (Tuesday, March 15, 2011)
Christa Marshall, E&E reporter
The percentage of Americans who say they are concerned about global warming and think it's a man-made problem remains at much lower levels than a few years ago, Gallup reported yesterday. In its annual survey of environmental attitudes, the polling organization found that 51 percent of adults say they worry "a great deal" or a "fair amount" about the phenomenon, compared to 66 percent three years ago. Similarly, the percentage of Americans who say that the seriousness of global warming is exaggerated, 43 percent, is 8 points higher than in 2008. Less than half of those surveyed say that global warming has "already begun to happen," compared to 61 percent three years ago. Meanwhile, the percentage believing that increases in the Earth's temperature result from human pollution dropped almost 6 points over the same time frame, from 58 percent to 52 percent. "Americans are clearly less concerned about global warming and its effects than they were a few years ago," Gallup said in a statement. "While concerns across various measures did not continue to trend downward this year, they generally held stable near historical lows." The level of worry about global warming hovered above 60 percent between 2006 and 2009, with a steep decline occurring last year. There are various explanations for the drop in concern, Gallup said, including the economic downturn and the inclination of Americans to worry less about environmental problems under Democratic presidents. The organization also hinted that "controversies about the integrity of the data and analysis offered by global warming proponents" could be at play in public attitudes.
Awareness grows even as concern drops
The so-called "Climategate" scandal, in which leaked e-mails in November 2009 showed bickering among climate scientists, coincided with some of the drop in worry about the issue. Echoing many previous surveys, there remains a sharp partisan split in public opinion, with 72 percent of Democrats saying they worry a great deal or fair amount about warming temperatures, compared to 31 percent of Republicans. Independents are in the middle, at 51 percent. The poll also found that Americans' claims of understanding and awareness about the issue have increased over time, even as concern about it has dropped. Eighty percent of adults now say they understand the issue "very well" or fairly well, a jump of 11 percentage points from a decade ago. Even so, other research shows that Americans may not be as aware as they think. An analysis from the Yale Project on Climate Change released last month, for example, reported <http://environment.yale.edu/climate/files/Knowledge_Across_Six_Americas.pdf> that a majority of Americans, or 61 percent, think the ozone layer causes global warming by "a lot" or "some," while 54 percent say that aerosol spray cans are to blame. An additional 44 percent say erroneously that they think nuclear power plants cause warming temperatures. "There is a huge gap between what experts know and what the public believes about this issue," said Anthony Leiserowitz, a Yale University professor who studies public opinion on climate change, in a recent interview. The Gallup poll was conducted March 3-6 among 1,021 adults. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
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About ClimateWire
ClimateWire is written and produced by the staff of E&E Publishing, LLC. It is designed to provide comprehensive, daily coverage of all aspects of climate change issues. From international agreements on carbon emissions to alternative energy technologies to state and federal GHG programs, ClimateWire plugs readers into the information they need to stay abreast of this sprawling, complex issue.
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You have all ignored the fact that the global warming enthusiasts decline to debate and whenever they do, quite infrequently, they come out at the short end. I think well advertised public debate attended by scientists and others who are allowed to ask questions would go a long way toward getting the public more interested and involved. Public debate is an important element of our democracy. If it is not done, the public interest goes elsewhere.
An E&E Publishing Service PUBLIC OPINION: Americans' concern about global warming still cooling -- poll (Tuesday, March 15, 2011)Christa Marshall, E&E reporterThe percentage of Americans who say they are concerned about global warming and think it's a man-made problem remains at much lower levels than a few years ago, Gallup reported yesterday. In its annual survey of environmental attitudes, the polling organization found that 51 percent of adults say they worry "a great deal" or a "fair amount" about the phenomenon, compared to 66 percent three years ago. Similarly, the percentage of Americans who say that the seriousness of global warming is exaggerated, 43 percent, is 8 points higher than in 2008. Less than half of those surveyed say that global warming has "already begun to happen," compared to 61 percent three years ago. Meanwhile, the percentage believing that increases in the Earth's temperature result from human pollution dropped almost 6 points over the same time frame, from 58 percent to 52 percent. "Americans are clearly less concerned about global warming and its effects than they were a few years ago," Gallup said in a statement. "While concerns across various measures did not continue to trend downward this year, they generally held stable near historical lows." The level of worry about global warming hovered above 60 percent between 2006 and 2009, with a steep decline occurring last year. There are various explanations for the drop in concern, Gallup said, including the economic downturn and the inclination of Americans to worry less about environmental problems under Democratic presidents. The organization also hinted that "controversies about the integrity of the data and analysis offered by global warming proponents" could be at play in public attitudes. Awareness grows even as concern dropsThe so-called "Climategate" scandal, in which leaked e-mails in November 2009 showed bickering among climate scientists, coincided with some of the drop in worry about the issue. Echoing many previous surveys, there remains a sharp partisan split in public opinion, with 72 percent of Democrats saying they worry a great deal or fair amount about warming temperatures, compared to 31 percent of Republicans. Independents are in the middle, at 51 percent. The poll also found that Americans' claims of understanding and awareness about the issue have increased over time, even as concern about it has dropped. Eighty percent of adults now say they understand the issue "very well" or fairly well, a jump of 11 percentage points from a decade ago. Even so, other research shows that Americans may not be as aware as they think. An analysis from the Yale Project on Climate Change released last month, for example, reported that a majority of Americans, or 61 percent, think the ozone layer causes global warming by "a lot" or "some," while 54 percent say that aerosol spray cans are to blame. An additional 44 percent say erroneously that they think nuclear power plants cause warming temperatures. "There is a huge gap between what experts know and what the public believes about this issue," said Anthony Leiserowitz, a Yale University professor who studies public opinion on climate change, in a recent interview. The Gallup poll was conducted March 3-6 among 1,021 adults. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Want to read more stories like this?Click here to start a free trial to E&E -- the best way to track policy and markets. About ClimateWireClimateWire is written and produced by the staff of E&E Publishing, LLC. It is designed to provide comprehensive, daily coverage of all aspects of climate change issues. From international agreements on carbon emissions to alternative energy technologies to state and federal GHG programs, ClimateWire plugs readers into the information they need to stay abreast of this sprawling, complex issue. |
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Error! Filename not specified. <http://www.climatewire.net/>
An E&E Publishing Service
PUBLIC OPINION: Americans' concern about global warming still cooling -- poll (Tuesday, March 15, 2011)
Christa Marshall, E&E reporter
The percentage of Americans who say they are concerned about global warming and think it's a man-made problem remains at much lower levels than a few years ago, Gallup reported yesterday.In its annual survey of environmental attitudes, the polling organization found that 51 percent of adults say they worry "a great deal" or a "fair amount" about the phenomenon, compared to 66 percent three years ago.Similarly, the percentage of Americans who say that the seriousness of global warming is exaggerated, 43 percent, is 8 points higher than in 2008. Less than half of those surveyed say that global warming has "already begun to happen," compared to 61 percent three years ago.Meanwhile, the percentage believing that increases in the Earth's temperature result from human pollution dropped almost 6 points over the same time frame, from 58 percent to 52 percent."Americans are clearly less concerned about global warming and its effects than they were a few years ago," Gallup said in a statement. "While concerns across various measures did not continue to trend downward this year, they generally held stable near historical lows."The level of worry about global warming hovered above 60 percent between 2006 and 2009, with a steep decline occurring last year.There are various explanations for the drop in concern, Gallup said, including the economic downturn and the inclination of Americans to worry less about environmental problems under Democratic presidents. The organization also hinted that "controversies about the integrity of the data and analysis offered by global warming proponents" could be at play in public attitudes.
Awareness grows even as concern drops
The so-called "Climategate" scandal, in which leaked e-mails in November 2009 showed bickering among climate scientists, coincided with some of the drop in worry about the issue.Echoing many previous surveys, there remains a sharp partisan split in public opinion, with 72 percent of Democrats saying they worry a great deal or fair amount about warming temperatures, compared to 31 percent of Republicans. Independents are in the middle, at 51 percent.The poll also found that Americans' claims of understanding and awareness about the issue have increased over time, even as concern about it has dropped. Eighty percent of adults now say they understand the issue "very well" or fairly well, a jump of 11 percentage points from a decade ago.Even so, other research shows that Americans may not be as aware as they think.An analysis from the Yale Project on Climate Change released last month, for example, reported <http://environment.yale.edu/climate/files/Knowledge_Across_Six_Americas.pdf> that a majority of Americans, or 61 percent, think the ozone layer causes global warming by "a lot" or "some," while 54 percent say that aerosol spray cans are to blame. An additional 44 percent say erroneously that they think nuclear power plants cause warming temperatures."There is a huge gap between what experts know and what the public believes about this issue," said Anthony Leiserowitz, a Yale University professor who studies public opinion on climate change, in a recent interview.The Gallup poll was conducted March 3-6 among 1,021 adults. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Want to read more stories like this?
Click here <http://www.eenews.net/trial/> to start a free trial to E&E -- the best way to track policy and markets.
About ClimateWire
ClimateWire is written and produced by the staff of E&E Publishing, LLC. It is designed to provide comprehensive, daily coverage of all aspects of climate change issues. From international agreements on carbon emissions to alternative energy technologies to state and federal GHG programs, ClimateWire plugs readers into the information they need to stay abreast of this sprawling, complex issue.
Error! Filename not specified.E&E Publishing, LLC
122 C St., Ste. 722, NW, Wash., D.C. 20001.
Phone: 202-628-6500. Fax: 202-737-5299.
www.eenews.net <http://www.eenews.net/>
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This blatant disregard of evidence, scientific and otherwise, I find truly breathtaking given what is at stake for this planet. Is seems clear to me that public opinion and especially scientific opinion can now be ignored with impunity by congressional leadership, apparently thanks to a very effective lobbying/disinformation campaign, a very compliant media, and limitless corporate campaign contributions, all fueled by by a bottomless pit of vested interest money. Reason alone is not going to be enough to change this picture. The only hope is to communicate the concepts to the voting masses on an emotional level, employing skills far outside of science, as the deniers have so skillfully demonstrated. The sooner we realize that this is not a debate about science, but a debate about risk to future national security, jobs, health, and prosperity, the sooner political traction might be achieved. This is not going to happen with another thick, technical IPCC, NAS, or TRS report without also employing the communication and marketing skills of Hollywood, Madison Ave, and K Street. Additionally or alternatively (and perhaps more cheaply) we can take our arguments to court, assuming that future generations have standing...
-Greg
________________________________________
From: climatein...@googlegroups.com [climatein...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Roger Pielke, Jr. [rpie...@gmail.com]
Sent: Tuesday, March 15, 2011 7:29 AM
To: kcal...@gmail.com
Cc: Ken Caldeira; leo...@crai.com; climatein...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: [clim] Re: From ClimateWire -- PUBLIC OPINION: Americans' concern about global warming still cooling -- poll
Hi Ken-
It is easy for experts to look down their noses at a general public who does not share their particular expertise. However, on subjects outside their own narrow specialized expertise, experts are generally as dumb as the general public (except that they often have more confidence in their incorrect beliefs;-).
The fact is that the public will never be expert in every topic for which society must make decisions, it is a logical impossibility. So as EE Schattsschneider, the political scientist, well-articulated a half century ago, the political challenge is one of making good use of experts in a society where hundreds of millions of people get to participate in the democratic process.
One way this is done is that experts bring policy options to the public for debate and decision. Bringing evermore facts to the debate is not helpful. The lack of debate over viable options is what is holding back the US, not an ignorant public.
Society routinely makes decisions on complex topics characterized by mixed public opinion and low public understanding. Compared to other such situations (see my discussion in The Climate Fix) the state of public opinion on climate is not at all an obstacle to effective action.
On the other hand, complaining about the ignorant masses may be cathartic.
All best,
Roger
On Tue, Mar 15, 2011 at 8:19 AM, Ken Caldeira <kcal...@carnegie.stanford.edu<mailto:kcal...@carnegie.stanford.edu>> wrote:
Here is a Gallup Poll saying that 40% of American's "believe" in biological evolution.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/114544/Darwin-Birthday-Believe-Evolution.aspx
So, perhaps we can say that in the American mind, the fact that humans cause climate change is more certain than biological evolution.
Of course, all of this points to shocking scientific illiteracy on the part of the American populace. We are a modern nation mired in medieval beliefs.
On Tue, Mar 15, 2011 at 6:06 AM, <leo...@crai.com<mailto:leo...@crai.com>> wrote:
This ClimateWire story was sent to you by: leo...@crai.com<mailto:leo...@crai.com>
Personal message: I don't know if the article will transmit this way, but it seems to me to have the right focus. First, concern is way down. Second, the partisan split continues to be very deep. Third, the electorate's beliefs about causation (nuclear power plants, spray cans) shows that they remain incorrigibly ignorant. If you follow the poll results through time, you will know that the plunge in concern has happened in the past when the economy turned down. The numbers NEVER, though, approach those for issues that people really care about like employment, health care, and national security.
An E&E Publishing Service
PUBLIC OPINION: Americans' concern about global warming still cooling -- poll (Tuesday, March 15, 2011)
Christa Marshall, E&E reporter
The percentage of Americans who say they are concerned about global warming and think it's a man-made problem remains at much lower levels than a few years ago, Gallup reported yesterday.
In its annual survey of environmental attitudes, the polling organization found that 51 percent of adults say they worry "a great deal" or a "fair amount" about the phenomenon, compared to 66 percent three years ago.
Similarly, the percentage of Americans who say that the seriousness of global warming is exaggerated, 43 percent, is 8 points higher than in 2008. Less than half of those surveyed say that global warming has "already begun to happen," compared to 61 percent three years ago.
Meanwhile, the percentage believing that increases in the Earth's temperature result from human pollution dropped almost 6 points over the same time frame, from 58 percent to 52 percent.
"Americans are clearly less concerned about global warming and its effects than they were a few years ago," Gallup said in a statement. "While concerns across various measures did not continue to trend downward this year, they generally held stable near historical lows."
The level of worry about global warming hovered above 60 percent between 2006 and 2009, with a steep decline occurring last year.
There are various explanations for the drop in concern, Gallup said, including the economic downturn and the inclination of Americans to worry less about environmental problems under Democratic presidents. The organization also hinted that "controversies about the integrity of the data and analysis offered by global warming proponents" could be at play in public attitudes.
Awareness grows even as concern drops
The so-called "Climategate" scandal, in which leaked e-mails in November 2009 showed bickering among climate scientists, coincided with some of the drop in worry about the issue.
Echoing many previous surveys, there remains a sharp partisan split in public opinion, with 72 percent of Democrats saying they worry a great deal or fair amount about warming temperatures, compared to 31 percent of Republicans. Independents are in the middle, at 51 percent.
The poll also found that Americans' claims of understanding and awareness about the issue have increased over time, even as concern about it has dropped. Eighty percent of adults now say they understand the issue "very well" or fairly well, a jump of 11 percentage points from a decade ago.
Even so, other research shows that Americans may not be as aware as they think.
An analysis from the Yale Project on Climate Change released last month, for example, reported<http://environment.yale.edu/climate/files/Knowledge_Across_Six_Americas.pdf> that a majority of Americans, or 61 percent, think the ozone layer causes global warming by "a lot" or "some," while 54 percent say that aerosol spray cans are to blame. An additional 44 percent say erroneously that they think nuclear power plants cause warming temperatures.
"There is a huge gap between what experts know and what the public believes about this issue," said Anthony Leiserowitz, a Yale University professor who studies public opinion on climate change, in a recent interview.
The Gallup poll was conducted March 3-6 among 1,021 adults. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Want to read more stories like this?
Click here<http://www.eenews.net/trial/> to start a free trial to E&E -- the best way to track policy and markets.
About ClimateWire
ClimateWire is written and produced by the staff of E&E Publishing, LLC. It is designed to provide comprehensive, daily coverage of all aspects of climate change issues. From international agreements on carbon emissions to alternative energy technologies to state and federal GHG programs, ClimateWire plugs readers into the information they need to stay abreast of this sprawling, complex issue.
E&E Publishing, LLC
122 C St., Ste. 722, NW, Wash., D.C. 20001.
Phone: <tel:202-628-6500> 202-628-6500<tel:202-628-6500>. Fax: <tel:202-737-5299> 202-737-5299<tel:202-737-5299>.
www.eenews.net<http://www.eenews.net>
All content is copyrighted and may not be reproduced or retransmitted without the express consent of E&E Publishing, LLC. Click here<http://www.eenews.net/eep/learn_more/privacy_policy> to view our privacy policy.
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Ken:
Roger Pielke makes the point very well; indeed the same point I have been making about debate here and had been making on Dot Earth (on deaf ears). In elections debate is critical because people have partly made up their minds about candidates. Same on climate. The climate science community won’t stoop to public debate on the science or on geoengineering. When they have they have lost the debate. In my opinion that is your mission on behalf of this group. Inspire public debate and let the public get it straight.
-gene!
From: climatein...@googlegroups.com [mailto:climatein...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Roger Pielke, Jr.
Sent: Tuesday, March 15, 2011 10:29 AM
To: kcal...@gmail.com
Cc: Ken Caldeira; leo...@crai.com; climatein...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: [clim] Re: From ClimateWire -- PUBLIC OPINION: Americans' concern about global warming still cooling -- poll
Hi Ken-
It is easy for experts to look down their noses at a general public who does not share their particular expertise. However, on subjects outside their own narrow specialized expertise, experts are generally as dumb as the general public (except that they often have more confidence in their incorrect beliefs;-).
The fact is that the public will never be expert in every topic for which society must make decisions, it is a logical impossibility. So as EE Schattsschneider, the political scientist, well-articulated a half century ago, the political challenge is one of making good use of experts in a society where hundreds of millions of people get to participate in the democratic process.
One way this is done is that experts bring policy options to the public for debate and decision. Bringing evermore facts to the debate is not helpful. The lack of debate over viable options is what is holding back the US, not an ignorant public.
Society routinely makes decisions on complex topics characterized by mixed public opinion and low public understanding. Compared to other such situations (see my discussion in The Climate Fix) the state of public opinion on climate is not at all an obstacle to effective action.
On the other hand, complaining about the ignorant masses may be cathartic.
All best,
Roger
On Tue, Mar 15, 2011 at 8:19 AM, Ken Caldeira <kcal...@carnegie.stanford.edu> wrote:
Here is a Gallup Poll saying that 40% of American's "believe" in biological evolution.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/114544/Darwin-Birthday-Believe-Evolution.aspx
So, perhaps we can say that in the American mind, the fact that humans cause climate change is more certain than biological evolution.
Of course, all of this points to shocking scientific illiteracy on the part of the American populace. We are a modern nation mired in medieval beliefs.
On Tue, Mar 15, 2011 at 6:06 AM, <leo...@crai.com> wrote:
This ClimateWire story was sent to you by: leo...@crai.com
Personal message: I don't know if the article will transmit this way, but it seems to me to have the right focus. First, concern is way down. Second, the partisan split continues to be very deep. Third, the electorate's beliefs about causation (nuclear power plants, spray cans) shows that they remain incorrigibly ignorant. If you follow the poll results through time, you will know that the plunge in concern has happened in the past when the economy turned down. The numbers NEVER, though, approach those for issues that people really care about like employment, health care, and national security.
An E&E Publishing Service PUBLIC OPINION: Americans' concern about global warming still cooling -- poll (Tuesday, March 15, 2011)Christa Marshall, E&E reporterThe percentage of Americans who say they are concerned about global warming and think it's a man-made problem remains at much lower levels than a few years ago, Gallup reported yesterday. In its annual survey of environmental attitudes, the polling organization found that 51 percent of adults say they worry "a great deal" or a "fair amount" about the phenomenon, compared to 66 percent three years ago. Similarly, the percentage of Americans who say that the seriousness of global warming is exaggerated, 43 percent, is 8 points higher than in 2008. Less than half of those surveyed say that global warming has "already begun to happen," compared to 61 percent three years ago. Meanwhile, the percentage believing that increases in the Earth's temperature result from human pollution dropped almost 6 points over the same time frame, from 58 percent to 52 percent. "Americans are clearly less concerned about global warming and its effects than they were a few years ago," Gallup said in a statement. "While concerns across various measures did not continue to trend downward this year, they generally held stable near historical lows." The level of worry about global warming hovered above 60 percent between 2006 and 2009, with a steep decline occurring last year. There are various explanations for the drop in concern, Gallup said, including the economic downturn and the inclination of Americans to worry less about environmental problems under Democratic presidents. The organization also hinted that "controversies about the integrity of the data and analysis offered by global warming proponents" could be at play in public attitudes. Awareness grows even as concern dropsThe so-called "Climategate" scandal, in which leaked e-mails in November 2009 showed bickering among climate scientists, coincided with some of the drop in worry about the issue. Echoing many previous surveys, there remains a sharp partisan split in public opinion, with 72 percent of Democrats saying they worry a great deal or fair amount about warming temperatures, compared to 31 percent of Republicans. Independents are in the middle, at 51 percent. The poll also found that Americans' claims of understanding and awareness about the issue have increased over time, even as concern about it has dropped. Eighty percent of adults now say they understand the issue "very well" or fairly well, a jump of 11 percentage points from a decade ago. Even so, other research shows that Americans may not be as aware as they think. An analysis from the Yale Project on Climate Change released last month, for example, reported that a majority of Americans, or 61 percent, think the ozone layer causes global warming by "a lot" or "some," while 54 percent say that aerosol spray cans are to blame. An additional 44 percent say erroneously that they think nuclear power plants cause warming temperatures. "There is a huge gap between what experts know and what the public believes about this issue," said Anthony Leiserowitz, a Yale University professor who studies public opinion on climate change, in a recent interview. The Gallup poll was conducted March 3-6 among 1,021 adults. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Want to read more stories like this?Click here to start a free trial to E&E -- the best way to track policy and markets. About ClimateWireClimateWire is written and produced by the staff of E&E Publishing, LLC. It is designed to provide comprehensive, daily coverage of all aspects of climate change issues. From international agreements on carbon emissions to alternative energy technologies to state and federal GHG programs, ClimateWire plugs readers into the information they need to stay abreast of this sprawling, complex issue. |
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It is interesting to contrast the dismissive views of many Republicans about
the science of climate change with their views about relooking at nuclear
power given the situation in Japan. On this, they seem to be saying let's
not take action or even relook at what we are doing regarding nuclear power
and that we should wait for careful scientific analysis of the situation,
which they seem to expect will indicate that the threats have been overblown
and so further nuclear development can go forward.
While many of us may see inconsistency in their use of science, perhaps
their apparent sense that the views are consistent needs to be thought
about a bit more. Might it be that they are coming from a perspective that
the environment (Mother Nature) can overcome any insult (i.e., 'puny little
man cannot impact God's great Earth'--to quote from the late Dixie Lee Ray),
that they are against alarmism of any kind (but they are alarmist on the
deficit, so that may be unlikely), that they do not go against the interests
of big business, that they have total faith in the benefits of technological
development of any kind, that they just don't like regulations of any kind,
that Democrats are for it so they are against it, or what else? Might it be
that we are not understanding their actions and positions because of the
framing that we have (or our framing engenders an unduly negative response),
and we need to reframe the debate as Bill Clinton tried in the quote sent
around yesterday, or the way the Catholic Bishops tried to do in their
statement nearly a decade ago (see
http://www.usccb.org/sdwp/international/globalclimate.shtml
)? I tried explaining this all, at least to myself, in a paper (copy
attached) about how differing perspectives may be contributing to the
contention, suggesting that what we need are leaders who are able to
reconcile the key elements of the multiple perspectives, each of which can
in some ways be legitimately argued, but yet each of which has significant
blind spots. Former governors Pataki (NY) and Schwarzenegger (CA) have done
this better than others, in my view, and actually made some progress, but
more reconciliation across perspectives is needed.
Mike MacCracken
> climatein...@googlegroups.com<mailto:climateintervention@googlegroups.c
> om>.
> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to
> climateinterven...@googlegroups.com<mailto:climateintervention%2B
I am a college professor, so yes I greatly value education.
I simply think that you are mistaken if you think that waging a highly
politicized public battle over the science is going to help lead to
the political outcomes that you desire. In fact, it may do the
opposite while harming institutions of science. Research often
uncovers inconvenient realities and this is one of them. Bringing more
facts to the debate is in fact often not helpful.
Have a look at this excellent paper by Dan Sarewitz which presents
exactly this argument:
Daniel Sarewitz, How science makes environmental controversies worse,
Environmental Science & Policy, Volume 7, October 2004, Pages 385-403,
ISSN 1462-9011, DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2004.06.001.
http://www.cspo.org/documents/environ_controv.pdf
All best,
Roger
Often there is no practical difference between efforts to get "the
political process recognizing scientific facts" and "a highly
politicized battle over science."
Saying so does not make it any more true -- any more so that the US
House trying to legislate the reality of human influences on the
climate system.
But perhaps this exchange can help you to understand better the
position of "climate deniers" --- climate science is not the only area
of robust research that people wish were not true ;-)
All best,
Roger
Ken, Roger,
Without attempting to resolve this debate perhaps I may be permitted to make the following observation.
The same IPCC that has done yeoman work, in my opinion, in setting out and explaining the climate science behind anthropogenic climate change (WG I) also said in defiance of the evidence I believe, that the technologies to solve the problem are available, that the cost of doing so with these technologies is low, and that the barriers were political-institutional and socio-economic not technological (WG III). (The WG III view appeared in both the TAR and in a somewhat modified form in AR4.)
Now, I believe that much, perhaps most of the public believe (correctly) that the needed technologies are not available (and won’t be even with exemplary scientific/engineering estimates for many years) and that the costs of mitigation without them would be prohibitively costly. If this is the case, then faced with oft-repeated claims that suggest dire results if we do not mitigate quickly, is it really surprising that many turn to denial. And the easiest target for denial (albeit unjustified) is the climate science. How different is this from the many in California who demonstrate “cognitive dissonance” by rating the probability of a very big and highly damaging, earthquake much lower than scientific estimates that rate it quite high in the next 30 years?
Chris Green
From: climatein...@googlegroups.com [mailto:climatein...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Ken Caldeira
Sent: Wednesday, March 16, 2011
12:22 PM
To: Roger Pielke, Jr.
-----Original Message-----
From: climatein...@googlegroups.com
[mailto:climatein...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Roger Pielke, Jr.
Sent: Wednesday, March 16, 2011 12:37 PM
To: Ken Caldeira
Cc: Rau, Greg; leo...@crai.com; climatein...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: [clim] Re: From ClimateWire -- PUBLIC OPINION: Americans'
concern about global warming still cooling -- poll
Hi Ken-
Often there is no practical difference between efforts to get "the
All best,
Roger
climatein...@googlegroups.com<mailto:climateintervention@googlegroups
Prof. Green, an economist, is doing what we all do – talk out of our area of expertise. Why don’t we stick to geoengineering and climate science instead of ranging into psychology? We should think hard about how to inform the public and what we want to tell the public.
Let me try a dose of moderation.
1. Climate science is not tell us that we are "headed towards disaster". It tells us--albeit-- with substantial uncertainty in both directions, that if we do nothing to restrain emissions then we are headed to climate changes that are by some important physical measures fast and large. Social science tells us—with more uncertainty—that for most of us this will be bad, for some extremely bad and for some good. Impacts on national average basis are expected to be of order a few percent of GDP equivalent. You may think this is disaster. In some respects I agree with you. I most certainty agree about rapid action to restrain emissions. But I know that drawing this conclusion requires me to put my values in. And in democracy we have to concede--nay celebrate--that our values count no more and no less than anyone else's.
è Science cannot leap from fact to value.
2. Likewise, economics does not tell us that "decarbonizing the world economy with current and foreseeable technology is prohibitively costly". Indeed quite the opposite, standard economic study suggest that the cost to decarbonize the world economy amount to a few percent GDP.
Here are two ways in which our politics are stuck:
First, some groups--in this case the Greens--have hitched a host of other bandwagons to the climate horse. In caricature: they want decarbonization but only if it's achieved with small renewables, solar on roofs, and a new broad reshaping of politics in industrial democracies. Adding all these requirements greatly increases the costs making this outcome politically infeasible.
Second, some other groups--let's call them the Browns--have chosen to attack the climate science, and more generally attack the role of scientific rationality as a touchstone in democratic decision-making, rather than taking the more honest but less effective course of accepting the science but disagreeing about the value of action.
Both sides now seem to feel that they can further their ends by turning up the volume:
The Browns say the climate science is all bunk though smart folks in this camp don't actually believe this claim.
Likewise, the Green say action will be cheap and inaction will be disastrous, though smart folks in this camp don't actually believe this claim.
Obviously I am drawing simple caricatures. Real-world opinions are for more nuanced.
Maybe it's because I live in an oil town in my neighbors work in the industries that I aim to terminate, but I do believe that we will not make progress simply by shouting louder. Compromise is necessary on both sides.
David
-----
From: climatein...@googlegroups.com [mailto:climatein...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Josh Horton
Sent: Wednesday, March 16, 2011 3:44 PM
To: Climate Intervention
Subject: [clim] Re: From ClimateWire -- PUBLIC OPINION: Americans' concern about global warming still cooling -- poll
--
We do not have an effective democracy. Indeed democracy is a terrible form of government except that it is better than all the others. Democracy is not compatible with the nature of mankind since man is fundamentally selfish. However, despite being misinformed and lied to by politicians, companies, organizations and the media, Americans tend to do enough for our democracy to survive. A better media would help a lot and it is failing. In my strongly held view both sides of the issue are distorting the science for their own selfish aims. There are no good guys and bad guys. Most are bad, which is the way nature made it. Thank God for the few straight shooters. Now you can pat yourselves on the back and count yourself as a straight shooter.
In any case Josh Horton is correct. Geoengineering as early as it is in
terms of proven capability does also strongly suggest solutions that can
protect us against increasing temperature; natural events surrounding
volcanic eruptions do prove the point. Ending CO2 emissions or capturing CO2
emissions does not guarantee that the climate temperature will not increase
in continuation of the past 10,000 years of climate history, during which
the temperature has been rising. History teaches it will continue to rise
even without a CO2 driver. Will the climate scientists deny this?
-----Original Message-----
From: climatein...@googlegroups.com
[mailto:climatein...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Josh Horton
Sent: Wednesday, March 16, 2011 5:44 PM
To: Climate Intervention
Josh Horton
--
In my view this is not moderate. Climate science is indeed highly uncertain and the range of possibilities too large. Economists are not credible when they argue in the face of so much uncertainty. How can an input completely ignore the potential for geoengineering to find a viable solution.