Lets be retrospective: Learn from the past and plan for the future: Where the Sky is Blue and Land is Greener
Tek Jung Mahat
Climate is changing and it has already started to show its presence
Past global warming suggests massive temperature shift in our future (http://www.mongabay.com , 7 Dec.2006)
If past climate change is any indication, Earth could be in store for some significant global warming according to research published in the December 8, 2006, issue of the journal Science. The work suggests that climate change skeptics may be fighting a losing cause.L
The study, led by Mark Pagani, associate professor of geology and geophysics at Yale, looked at an episode of rapid climate change that occurred some 55 million years ago. Known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the period was marked by a rapid rise in greenhouse gases that heated Earth by roughly 9° F (5° C), in less than 10,000 years. The climate warming caused widespread changes including mass extinction in the world's oceans due to acidification and shifts of plant communities due to changes in rainfall. The era helped set the stage for the "Age of Mammals," which included the first appearance of modern primates.
The research, based on fossil records of terrestrial plants and oceanic plankton, suggests that the world's climate is highly sensitive to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels, finding that a doubling of CO2 concentrations can raise global temperatures by at least 4 ºF (2.2 ºC). Current projections show that natural background atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are expected to double around mid-century due to fossil fuel combustion.
Warmest winter on Record for Shanghai
(http://www.terradaily.com/ accessed on 7 March 2007)
Shanghai (AFP) March 2 - Shanghai has experienced its warmest winter on record, but the global warming-induced phenomenon had some unexpected positive spin-offs for China's economic hub, state press said Friday. Average temperatures were 8.1 degrees Celsius (46.6 degrees Fahrenheit), a dramatic 2.6 degrees warmer than in previous years and the highest since records were first taken in 1873, Xinhua news agency reported.
Himalayan Glaciers are melting
(Global Warming and Glaciers Forum, http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/forum/, accessed on 26 February 2007)
The 15,000 glaciers of the Himalayas, which collectively constitute the largest body of ice outside the polar caps, are reported to be receding faster than anywhere on Earth. Some 2,000 have melted since the 1950s. Instead of snow accumulation in winter, Himalayan glaciers are being hit by summer monsoon rains. The Dokriani Barnak glacier has receded about 0.8 kilometer since 1990. If Himalayan glaciers recede at this rapid rate, they will be gone by 2035.
Some of the noted evidences of climate change in the region
(http://www.saveourearth.co.uk/soe_ei.htm, assessed on 20 February 2007)
Beijing: A New Year's Day blizzard drifted snow six feet high, and killed at least 27 people.
(21-Jul-2002) China - News agencies are reporting that a violent hailstorm has left 16 people dead and several others injured after egg sized stones pelted northern parts of Henan province in central China. The storm lasted just half an hour. Emergency officials described hospitals filled with patients that had suffered deep head gashes by the hailstones.
(08-Jan-2006) India - Temperatures in India's Capital Dehli have plummeted to the lowest in 70 years amid a cold snap that has claimed more than a hundred lives in the Northern areas. The weather office reported the temperature between 0500 and 0600 local time was 0.2c the lowest since 1935. Dehli's Primary Schools will close for three days from Monday. More than 100 of 126 people who died as a result of the cold lived in Uttar Pradesh State.
(31-Dec-2006) China - The country had a hot and disastrous year during 2006 with average temperatures the highest since 1951, and average rainfall down 16mm.
One more coincidence from Kathmandu
(14-February-2007)Kathmandu – Scant snowfall after 62 years and frequent hailstones.
Climate change was also experienced in the past (Adaptation can be the solution)
Dinosaurs survived rapid climate change (http://www.mongabay.com, accessed on 23 September 2006)
New research suggests the existence of periods of dramatic climate change during the Mesozoic Era, a time when dinosaurs ruled the Earth. The research, published in the September issue of Geology, presents evidence that ocean surface temperatures varied as much as 6 degrees Celsius (about 11 degrees Fahrenheit) during the Aptian Epoch of the Cretaceous Period 120 million years ago according to scientists from Indiana University Bloomington and the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research who examined ancient rocks from the bottom of the Pacific Ocean. The results challenge the idea that the period was characterized by a stabl, hot and humid climate.
The researchers say the research is significant because it presents a case where "temperatures shifted erratically due to changes in carbon cycling and did so without human input" according to a news release from Indiana University.
Change in nutrition pool
Climate change may result into species composition change implying to shift in trophic regimes (According to Prof. Jonathan Bloch of University of Florida, not just the mammals and other vertebrates, but forests also completely changing). And if we could find a balance between various elements of a particular ecosystem the problem can be solved. A similar observation is reported by Bruce Wright in her article "Global Warming, an Ecosystem Shift, and Sharks in Alaska" (http://www.thenakedscientists.com , accessed on 28 July 2006)
Other areas to be addressed in the journey of icehouse to hothouse
- Stream flows have already started peaking earlier in the year.
- Mountain glaciers are declining and the net mountain snow-pack is also going down remarkably.
- The number and frequency of wildfires has increased from an average.
- As mountain and highlands start loosing net snow and glacier stock, the contribution to the lowlands will be higher forcing to submerse many of the oceanic countries and other depressed areas and climate refuges will increase in a large number.
- Unpredictable and unexpected diseases will be seen and public health cost will increase.
- Change in climate will also affect infectious diseases transmitted by insects, i.e., vector-borne diseases: examples are malaria, yellow fever, and schistosomiases. These diseases are sensitive to temperature as well as land-use changes, which may interact in a complex manner. The distribution of vector-borne diseases is restricted by climatic tolerance: a climatic change normally would affect the edges of current geographical distribution. Furthermore, land-use change and vector ecology control interactions between hosts and vectors, e.g., removal of vegetation or increased areas under irrigation influence the spread of diseases (Mats Eriksson, ICIMOD, 2006).
- Climate change will result to dramatic changes in humidity, precipitation levels and temperature. As a result a complete hydrological system will be changed there will be uncertainty in hydropower and irrigation system and mountain and hill inhabitants will have to depend on rainwater for various purposes. Water conservation cost will be very high. Floods and droughts will be more frequent and again …
- Tourism industry will go down and natural hazards will be more frequent and more dangerous.
- As all economic aspects of human civilization are affected by climate change the cumulative economic effect will be much higher than estimated.
- Mountains are not only climate change impact hotspots they are also war spots:
- Siachen glacier: Siachen is the world's largest non-polar glacier, and thus is sometimes referred to as the third pole. The glacier is located in the disputed Kashmir region and is claimed by India and Pakistan. The glacier's melting waters are the source of the river Indus, a vital water source for both India and Pakistan. Global warming has had its worst impact here in the Himalayas with the Glacier melting at an unprecedented rate. The glacier is the highest battleground on Earth, where India and Pakistan have fought intermittently since 1984 (From answers.com, result for "Siachen Glacier", accessed on 26 February 2007).