Notes on threat of transport plans to Carbon Budgets

[Chris Broome]

Hi All, 

This message is to emphasise the threat to the climate of the Government’s road building programme. In my view, it is probably the single policy area that is the worst threat of any. That is partly because political leaders of all colours generally support it, apparently oblivious to the implications to the climate. I have put some links to documents and evidence below that I hope will assist people to make a case against new road plans.

The Department for Transport’s latest “Transport Investment Strategy” is laid out in documents at:-

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/624990/transport-investment-strategy-web.pdf

The thinking behind the road building/upgrading plans included within it is that these are needed to support economic growth following years of underinvestment. It is claimed that other policies will ensure Carbon Budgets are met, even though these these particular plans will raise emissions slightly. In practice, recent Tory Governments have never had enough such policies, either generally or specifically for transport.

Progress on Carbon Budgets

For Overall Economy

Current Carbon Budgets are being met. However , in their 2017 “Progress Report”, the CCC describe an annual “policy gap” of 100 MT/CO2 between emissions savings that have been identified from current policies and those that are needed, opening up by 2030. Note that the annual budget is about 300 MT/CO2 by then so policies need to be introduced to cut one quarter of all CO2 emissions, compared to the current path. That needs a far more radical approach than anything currently under serious consideration. Beyond that, the CCC also point out that there another 70 MT/CO2 of emissions that could result from risks that existing climate polices will not be properly implemented.

For these details, see Fig 3 on page 15 of the CCC's progress report summary: https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Reducing-emissions-and-preparing-for-climate-change-2017-Report-to-Parliament-Summary-and-recommendations.pdf

Note, the CCC independent body but is we have discussed on this Forum, is not strong enough to demand sufficient action to genuinely minimise climate risks. For example, its recommendations for Carbon Budgets have not been changed to reflect the preferable 1.5C temperature rise limit agreed in the Paris Accord.

For Transport

The table describing required measures for transport on page 20 in the same report gives a good summary. It says transport caused 26% of 2016 emissions. Some of the measures it advocates are:-

- Emissions to fall by around 44% between 2015 and 2030 with options developed to allow near-zero emissions by 2050

- Policies to deliver a high uptake of electric vehicles, of around 60% of new car and van sales by 2030

- National and local policies to reduce demand, to deliver car-km reductions of at least 5% below the baseline trajectory

It is very clear that the Government and most politicians like the idea of developing electric cars which would support the car industry and is a high-tech solution. They are not so keen on limiting travel demand (and I am sceptical whether the CCC is sufficiently strong in proposing its 5% figure). The electric car debate has been prominent in the news lately and the issues are discussed by Carbon Brief at:https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-switch-to-electric-vehicles-would-add-just-10-per-cent-to-uk-power-demand?ct=t(Carbon_Brief_Weekly_28_07_2017) .I have added a comment at the end with my main thoughts.

I hope these comments will assist anyone campaigning on the subject and will end with some more specific comments related to the North.

For Northern Campaigners

 There is also the recent webpage describing essentially the Northern version of the national strategy described above.:-http://www.transportforthenorth.com/strategic-transport-plan/

 This webpage includes links to a bewildering array of documents, on a developing strategy. Note the Major Roads Report has a short environmental section (page 28 )- but no mention of climate change. A consultation amongst a variety of stakeholders brought out this point very strongly– see  Section 3 at http://www.transportforthenorth.com/wp-content/uploads/TfN-ISA-Position-Statement.pdf .

Note Transport for the North are still actively seeking people’s views in an ongoing process.

Best Regards

Chris