Serious Sam VR: The Last Hope Xforce Keygen
Teodolinda Mattson
Everyone on the left is aware that the reconciliation bill is the last big legislative train leaving the station, and every interest group wants a seat on it. Climate policy will be competing with other Democratic priorities. Especially as Sinema and Manchin arbitrarily reduce the total size of the bill, as they surely will, the factions of the party will be fighting it out over a shrinking pie.
Congress is working on what is likely to be its last big shot at climate change policy for a decade or more. If things go well, the legislation will include a clean energy standard (CES) and clean energy tax credits, which together would revolutionize the US electricity system. If things don\u2019t go well, there will be no substantial climate legislation for many years to come.
Looking around, it doesn\u2019t seem like clean energy supporters, climate hawks, or the left more broadly really get that. So let\u2019s talk about why this is such an important moment and what\u2019s at stake.
The Democratic approach for a while now has been to proceed along dual tracks. On one track, there\u2019s the bipartisan infrastructure bill, hammered out by a group of just over 20 senators from both parties. On the other track, there\u2019s the budget reconciliation bill, which is meant to contain \u2026 everything else in Biden\u2019s agenda. The former needs 60 votes; the latter can pass with 50 Democratic votes.
It contains decent chunks of money for things that will indirectly help clean energy \u2014 transmission, demonstration projects, R&D \u2014 but it lacks anything that will directly confront fossil fuels in the coming decade, the sine qua non of adequate climate policy. As Robinson Meyer argues in The Atlantic, it is not a climate bill, not really.
But whether it passes or not, when it comes to decent climate policy, it\u2019s all about the reconciliation bill. There won\u2019t be another bill this big while Democrats control Congress, and they won\u2019t control Congress for long. What Democrats are able to get through in the reconciliation bill is likely to be the last big federal climate legislation for a decade at least.
This is the key thing to understand, so I\u2019m going to repeat it: What Democrats are able to get through in the reconciliation bill is likely to be the last big federal climate legislation for a decade at least.
(You may be thinking: can\u2019t Democrats do another reconciliation bill next year? Yes, they can, but the midterms will be in full swing, moderates will be feeling even more cowardly than usual, political appetite for big spending will have dried up in the face of a recovering economy, and focus will have turned, hopefully, to voting reform. This one is it.)
Absent substantial federal voting reform \u2014 which is looking less and less likely, certainly nothing anyone should bet on \u2014 all signs point toward Republicans taking back the House in 2022. It\u2019s unclear what will happen in the Senate, but regardless, if the GOP controls either house, no climate legislation will pass (and no voting reform).
Republican presidential candidates can win despite larger and larger losses in the popular vote. And the chances of Democrats controlling both houses of Congress again are only getting dimmer. The structural advantages that favor the GOP in the US system are only tilting further in its favor, while the party is actively extending those advantages with a wave of voter-suppression laws at the state level and an accompanying wave of gerrymandering, which alone could win the GOP the House in 2022, even absent any Dem seats being lost. The GOP is protected in this endeavor by a hyper-conservative Supreme Court (which, by the way, could get even more conservative if the disastrously vain Stephen Breyer hangs on until there\u2019s a Republican president again).
The conservative movement in the US is attempting to engineer one-party control of US government (along the lines of their new hero, Hungarian autocrat Viktor Orban). There\u2019s no way to know how successful the endeavor will ultimately be, but it\u2019s a pretty good bet, given current trends, that Democrats won\u2019t control the presidency and both houses of Congress at the same time again for a long while. Last time they lost full control (just before a wave of gerrymandering in 2010), it was a decade until they got it back.
Climate folk are prone to endless policy arguments; everyone has their favorites. But most of those arguments are immaterial right now. Democrats have lined up behind a menu of clean energy policies in line with Biden\u2019s climate plan. What\u2019s on that menu is what might get in the bill. Might.
If it\u2019s not on that menu, it\u2019s not going to get in. There\u2019s no carbon tax. There\u2019s no cap-and-dividend. There\u2019s no prohibition on new fossil fuel infrastructure. You may support any and all of those policies, but they are not live options in the reconciliation bill.
The first is a Clean Energy Standard that would reduce electricity sector greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2030. (Biden\u2019s plan calls for 100 percent by 2035, but a reconciliation bill can only extend 10 years out.)
It\u2019s not actually going to be a standard, per se, because you can\u2019t pass regulatory standards through reconciliation. Instead, it\u2019s going to be a system of fines and payments that will incentivize utilities to increase their proportion of renewable energy to meet the targets. It\u2019s called a clean electricity payment program (CEPP).
A CEPP actually has some advantages over the traditional CES\u2019s and renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) commonly seen in states. For one thing, it\u2019s more progressive: the money to drive the transition comes from federal coffers (via taxes on corporations and the wealthy) rather than from electricity rates, which are regressive.
If you\u2019re interested in the details of how a reconciliation-friendly CEPP will be structured, see this piece from Ben Storrow and Scott Waldman of E&E, or this thread from Princeton professor Jesse Jenkins:
The end result will be the same as a conventional CES: the US electricity grid will reach 80 percent decarbonization by 2030, which is an achievable but still incredibly ambitious target. As I\u2019ve said so many times, nothing is more important to deep decarbonization than cleaning up the electricity grid. It\u2019s the core of the \u201Celectrify everything\u201D strategy.
The second is boosted and expanded clean energy tax credits. The investment tax credit (ITC) and production tax credit (PTC), for solar and wind respectively, would be renewed, but various forms of tax credits would also be extended to energy storage, hydrogen, carbon capture, and other key clean energy technologies. (The details are in flux; for a blueprint, see the Senate Finance Committee\u2019s Clean Energy for America Act or the House Ways and Means\u2019 GREEN Act.)
There are other good climate provisions on the Democrats\u2019 menu for reconciliation as well. I would love to see a Civilian Climate Corps. I\u2019d love to see more money for public transportation and an electrified postal service fleet. Lots of smaller climate provisions might make it through just by virtue of not drawing much notice, which would be great.
Manchin is likely to be skeptical of the CEPP. Although carbon capture counts as clean energy under the program, every analyst understands that the practical effect is going to be to ramp up renewables and ramp down fossil fuels on the grid. Manchin doesn\u2019t actually want that.
It is far from a sure thing that the CEPP and tax credits will survive negotiations. It\u2019s all being decided right now. Everyone who cares about US climate progress should put aside their personal projects and preferences for a few weeks and speak in a unified voice. Call your representatives. Push the groups you\u2019re involved with to make noise about it.
It\u2019s going to be the CEPP and tax credits or nothing big for climate. If both those policies are put in place, it could set the US power system on a new course and strengthen American credibility at the upcoming COP26 international climate meeting. If they slip through the cracks, climate will have to settle for scraps and the US will surrender all hope of meeting its climate targets or influencing others to do the same.
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Or maybe it can be not a language, but a large kit of top-level components for fast building of DSL compilers (something like metacompiler that provides a special language and tools for making arbitrary compilers).
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