Cheney: Saddam may be tempted to 'lash out'

[ROBERT MACKAY]

WASHINGTON (UPI) -- Defense Secretary Dick Cheney said a period of
``potential significant danger'' still lies ahead for the U.S. military
in the Persian Gulf and that, if fighting erupts, a Panama-style
American assault can be expected.
In remarks last week to members of Congress and civic groups, Cheney
provided the first insight into what he believes could spark military
conflict with the Iraqis and what action the United States might be
expected to take.
With Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Colin Powell at his side,
Cheney told the Senate Armed Services Committee ``there were two moments
that we've been concerned about of potential significant danger.''
The first moment was in early August, he said, when U.S. officials
feared 100,000 Iraqi invasion troops in Kuwait might sweep south into
Saudi Arabia, where the United States had deployed only a few thousand
airborne soldiers.
That danger period passed without incident.
The United States now has more than 140,000 military personnel in the
region, including 75,000 ground troops in Saudi Arabia, a 55-ship armada
and more than 600 Navy and Air Force fighters, bombers and tank-killing
attack planes.
Cheney said the second danger period ``will arrive at that point when
the (U.N.) sanctions really begin to bite and he (Iraqi President Saddam
Hussein) may be tempted to lash out and use his military forces against
the Saudis or others.''
``Should there be a provocation,'' Cheney said in a later appearance
before a Comstock Club and Air Force Association meeting in Sacramento,
Calif., ``we will be in a position to offer the president a wide range
of options.''
In response to another question, he said there should be no fears
about Bush getting the United States into a no-win Vietnam-style
conflict.
``I think that in terms of how this administration would use U.S.
military force, should that be required in this instance, I think the
best guide is to look at how we undertook the Panama operation last
December,'' Cheney said.
In the invasion of Panama, the United States employed a lightning-
quick, overpowering attack using fighters, bombers, paratroopers, ground
troops, naval units and Special Operations forces.
``There's only one outcome that's acceptable,'' Cheney continued.
``And the only policy or the only strategy to pursue is to be absolutely
certain that you can in fact prevail, and I think that's what we're
doing.''
Cheney pointed out at all of his public appearances that President
Bush did not direct him to undertake an offensive operation against the
Iraqis, but to deter Iraqi aggression, defend Saudi Arabia and enforce
the U.N. sanctions.
``I've got a specific set of instructions from the president at this
point,'' Cheney said. ``It does not include taking Baghdad.''
Yet, the defense secretary took exception to a statement by Sen.
Albert Gore Jr., D-Tenn., that an American attack probably ``looks less
and less likely to Saddam Hussein.''
``I'd be reluctant to make the judgment that offensive possibility
looks remote to Saddam Hussein,'' Cheney replied.
``Certainly I have not been given instructions to carry out any
offensive actions. But,'' he quickly added, ``it has not been ruled out
either.''
In an attack scenario, the United States could send F-111 fighter-
bombers into Iraq from Incirlik Air Base in Turkey in the north, F-117A
stealth fighter-bombers from Saudi Arabia in the south, and B-52 bombers
from Diego Garcia in the east.
These would likely target Iraq's air bases, Scud missile sites,
chemical weapons factories, a nuclear plant and Saddam's presidential
palace.
At the same time, the specialized F-4 ``Wild Weasel'' jets and A-10
Thunderbolt II attack planes now in Saudi Arabia could take out Iraq's
surface-to-air missile sites and Iraqi tanks, respectively.
Marines on amphibious ships in the Persian Gulf, backed by the
powerful 16-inch guns of the battleship USS Wisconsin, could attack from
the sea, establishing beachheads in occupied Kuwait.
As part of a pincher movement, tank-led U.S. troops, with air cover
by Air Force and Navy fighters and ground-attack jets, could move north
from Saudi Arabia and Army paratroopers could take up positions on the
western flank.
Asked about the current role of the battleship Wisconsin, Cheney said
the vessel's 16-inch guns could bombard Iraqi forces if they attempted
to move south down the coastal road near Saudi Arabian oil fields.
``In addition to that,'' Cheney said, ``the ship carries the cruise
missile. And the long-range Tomahawk (32 on the Wisconsin) holds at risk
a lot of targets inside Iraq that presumably Saddam Hussein values very
highly.''
The U.S. military buildup -- the largest and fastest since World War
II -- is expected to continue until the administration is certain of the
outcome of any conflict with Iraq.
``President Bush comes from what I call the 'Don't Screw Around'
school of military strategy,'' Cheney told the Sacramento group.