The major part of the aroma in most ciders comes from the yeast metabolising the apple sugars, rather than from the apple directly. That’s why people spend a lot of time agonising over what yeast to use, fermentation temperature and nutrients, whether or not to use wild yeasts etc. Different yeast strains can give very different aroma profiles. In addition to that, the effect of malo-lactic bacteria plus the slow chemical and biochemical effects of ageing will influence the final aroma. It is also probable that minor apple components will also influence the yeast to take certain pathways rather than others, in ways that we don’t understand.
In a relatively few cases, the aroma of an apple can and does persist through to the final cider. I’m thinking of apples like Foxwhelp or Stoke Red in the UK. I believe the characteristic Macintosh aroma in North America can also persist through from fruit to finished cider. But generally such varietal aromas are lost during fermentation, although those that persist may be high boiling esters which are less volatile.
There is also a whole range of non-volatile aroma precursors in the apple fruit. Many of these are bound to glucose and so the volatiles can be liberated when the juice is fermented if the yeast contains an appropriate glucosidase enzyme. So for instance some of the 2-phenyl ethanol in cider (which has a rose-like aroma) probably comes from the breakdown of a specific glucoside as well as from yeast synthesis. One of the most interesting molecules of this type is 1,3 octanediol which is glycosidically bound and can be liberated during fermentation - it then reacts with acetaldehyde produced by yeast to give a dioxolane with a cidery aroma see
http://www.cider.org.uk/aroma.html
There are other non-volatile precursors such as the phenolic acids which can be partly metabolised by lactic acid bacteria to give the spicy / farmyard aromas (ethyl phenols) which are prized in English bittersweet ciders. Some UK bittersweets such as Yarlington Mill seem to give these more readily than most others, for reasons that are not entirely clear. This was covered recently on this forum
https://groups.google.com/g/cider-workshop/c/Liuwg3dppgM/m/Hq5uwbDhBAAJ?
However, despite all that, I think there is no way by sensory or chemical analysis of the apple to predict what aroma it will yield on fermentation. As you said, it is a matter of trial and error and experience really.
Andrew
Wittenham Hill Cider Page
Hi all