Thanks Dave.
We may be getting a used chiller, so I'm not sure how willing the manufacturer will be with pipe sizing.
I agree that the cold crashing is the dominant feature. We don't go so cold so quickly, but it's still dominant.
What I like to do is break things down to their elemental particles and build them back up. This way I have a thorough understanding. So here I'm trying to model just fermentation to wrap my head around the heat generated and how that would go over time. The normal distribution may not be the correct model, but it may be close to reality. Or at least as close as necessary.
What really got me started on this was the piping supplier asking for the required flow rate of the glycol. This way they can determine pipe size to keep velocity to a reasonable level. To determine flow rate, we need to do the calculations of heat transfer, so therefore we need to know the heat generated. One source uses 1.94 BTU/gallon/hr for fermentation. I don't know if that's peak, average or where it came from. If we use it, then:
1.94 x 275 = 533.5 BTU/hr.
In my graph I had it reaching a peak of 267 BTU/hr. Only a difference of almost exactly 2:1. That's a 100% error depending on which one is correct.
The heat generated starts at zero and ramps up. It reaches some peak for some duration. Then it ramps back down as the sugar density decreases. I would bet on the 267 being more accurate than the 534 number.
For cold crashing, we have:
BTU/h = (gal x density x ΔT x 1 BTU/lb/F)
275 x 8.5 x (60-40) x 1 = 46,750 btu in 1 hr.
46.750 / 24 = 1,948 btu/24 hr (average value but with a peak of 2,610 BTU/h)
1,948 x 1.34 = 2,610 btu/hr (to handle the first hour of heat transfer)
So cold crashing requires nearly 10x the energy of fermentation. But if they happen simultaneously in multiple tanks, we have to include them in the glycol flow rate calculation.
So I created a cold crashing calculator to determine the GPM flow of a 30/70 glycol mix at 20 F. Because of the logarithmic nature of cooling, I calculated it by the hour. For every hour that passes, the tank liquid temperature drops so the delta T gets smaller (temperature difference between the liquid and glycol), so the heat transfer slows down as the tank approaches setpoint given a constant flow rate of glycol.
Below is an example for 1,000 gallons of liquid at 60 F to be cooled to 32 F with a 30,000 BTU/h chiller (assuming no losses). This says it can be done in 13 hours assuming no other tanks are using glycol. The heat transfer through the stainless is never a bottleneck, so I ignore that in the calculations. In this particular scenario, the glycol flow ends up at about 1.55 gpm which is super low. The chiller in question can move glycol at 40 gpm and provide 32,717 BTU/h at 20 F. So in the end, it's the chiller performance that is the bottleneck if you want to crash faster.
All of this ignores the action inside the tank where cold liquid has to drop and natural currents are created to expose warmer liquid to the cold tank wall, etc. Way beyond my skill set.
Eric