Christian Wolmar September 2011 newsletter
Christian Wolmar
Dear subscriber
(apologies if this is second mailing - the first one appears to have not reached most recipients)
It turned out to be a busy time during the holidays. The proposed 8 per cent fares rises caused quite a storm on a quiet August day and I ended up not only commenting on the Today programme from beside the pool in Italy but also writing a piece for The Times (here) and another for the Sunday Telegraph (here). I have also written about the rises in the latest Rail magazine but that is not yet on the site
The key point about the fares rises is that the regulated fare system was originally intended to protect passengers who have no choice but to use the railway but is now by the government to reduce the taxpayers’ bill for the railways. Moreover, as I point out in The Times this is a risky strategy for a politician representing commuterland but perhaps Philip Hammond reckons he will be long gone out of transport when the next election comes up.
The phenomenon of growth on the railways, though, is remarkable. Certainly I was wrong to think that it would be slow this year because of the sluggish economic performance. Like many industry watchers, I’m struggling to explain the 6 per cent growth this year. Certainly the low fares rises helped, as did high petrol prices, but since the growth is across the board, in all three main markets, that does not explain it all. And yet, given that so many franchises are now in cap and collar arrangements, the growth is slower than the TOCs bid for.
The risk for the industry will be if oil prices go down as the fares go up in the New Year. That might dampen any growth, just as the companies are preparing their franchise bids. It’s certainly going to be interesting.
There’s two new Rail columns as usual. The first is an examination of recent arguments by both pro and anti HS2. They do reflect a level of desperation on both sides. The notion, for example, that a million jobs will be created by HS2 has absolutely no basis support in the report on which it is based and yet is flashing up on the pros’ website. Similarly, using the Chinese high speed line crash as an argument against the line is equally fatuous. Read more here
The other Rail article is my annual ‘school report’ on the rail industry which, as ever, distributes its share of bouquets and brickbats. Sometimes being a commentator is good fun
I am off for ten days in America to give talks on my Engines of War book in Washington and a couple of towns places in Pennsylvania and then will return to, hopefully, finish my history of US railroads. Lots of talks coming up in October and November, starting with one to Enfield Railway Society on October 4th. All talks are now listed in the calendar on my home page and I tweet them, too, so do follow me on @christianwolmar.
In my usual effort to clear the space under my bed, here’s a real pre-xmas: a hardback copy of Fire & Steam, plus the 90 minute DVD based on the book for £13 plus £3 postage and packing. Can’t do better than that. Just pay by PayPal to xi...@pro-net.co.uk or email me. As mentioned previously, my book on the London Underground PPP is now available as a Kindle download for £6 here .
Please keep clicking on the ads on the site as it pays for the maintenance. Thankfully, bemysugardaddy.com seems to come up less often now than the hi-vi vest ads.
Christian Wolmar