Males only and ageing: problems of the one-child policy
China Economic Forum
Beijing (AsiaNews/SCMP) – In 20 years time, 10% of Chinese men will
find it difficult to get a bride. This is one consequence of
government birth control and one-child policies that are increasingly
coming under fire within the establishment.
A study by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of
Population and Labour Economics ("Green Book of Population and
Labour") released on 16 August said the newborn ratio was 121.2 boys
to 100 girls in 2004 after more than two decades of a "one child"
policy and parental attempts to select the sex of their child (in 2000
the ratio was 117 to 100). Researchers consider a ratio of 107 males
to 100 females as normal. If the trend continues, many boys in the
1990s will be hard pressed to find a wife.
The study said the birth control policy was expected to result in a
population of "only" 1.47 billion to 1.6 billion by 2050 from the
existing 1.3 billion; other estimates point to "partial" success and
predict an increase to 1.45 billion by 2030. The study does not hide
the fact that the policy has had damaging consequences: "selection"
preferring males in families and a progressive aging of the average
age in large cities.
Co-author Zheng Zhenzhen said: "Chinese parents... still value a baby
son more as Chinese men have to shoulder the responsibility of
carrying on the family line and supporting their ageing parents later
in life."
Chen Youhua of Nanjing University's Faculty of Sociology confirmed
that the one-child policy had prompted many couples, especially those
from rural areas, to resort to sex selection by aborting female
fetuses. It has also led to abuse of selection technology like
ultrasounds. Guangdong and Hainan have recorded the worst gender
imbalance with 130.3 males for every 100 females and 135.6 for every
100 in 2000.
Such "selective" practices have been banned in many parts of the
country and a Girl Care Project is under way that offers financial
incentives to parents of girls in rural areas. Dr Zheng said the
problem would persist "as long as the culture remains the same" and
until "social inequalities are eradicated".
Another problem tied to a shortage of women and the obligation to have
one son is an ageing population. In large cities, the average age is
spiraling to vertiginous heights and the risk looms of a resident
elderly population. Some statistics reveal that by 2050, elderly
people will account for 30% of the total population, a factor that
threatens to destroy the country's economic development. In Shanghai,
declining birth rates have already prompted the authorities to
encourage the birth of a second child.
Experts predict that the problem can only get worse, considering that
today, 42% of the population lives in the cities, a rate held to be
low compared to industrialization levels. Currently the rural
population is younger: the percentage of children is higher and in
many areas peasants are allowed to have a second child if the first is
a girl.
Social services in rural areas (wanting in everything) must be
boosted, say experts, adding that migrant workers in cities must be
granted their proper rights: they are not resident so they cannot
access social services and this makes it difficult for their families
to join them. Others say an adequate social benefits and pension
system is a must, especially in rural areas, to overcome the
conviction that a male son is needed to support parents in their old
age.