Sun Feb 18 Meteorology for Chicago

[Brett Crapser]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1125 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy again today, primarily during the morning

- A return to above-normal temperatures this week with a few
days of 50s in the forecast

&&

DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024

Through Monday:

Gusty SW winds have been ever so slowly easing their way down since
last evening. As of around 3 AM, we continue to regularly mix down
25-30 mph gusts. Winds should dampen a bit further as we approach
daybreak, but a deepening mixed layer will allow for >20 mph gusts
to hang around through the morning. In other news, today kicks off a
nice warming trend which will pull us back into the 50s for a couple
of days this week. In fact, efficient low-mid level warm advection
has managed to knock temperatures up a degree or two across much of
the area since last evening. We`ll start the day today with
temperatures in the lower and middle 20s and wind chills in the
teens. Sunny skies today will help get highs into the lower 40s for
most of the area. Similar to yesterday, temperatures are expected to
remain a few degrees cooler in our south with the snowpack in place.
Areas south of the Kankakee River will find it difficult to escape
the 30s today.

This week won`t see a whole lot in the way of noteworthy weather.
Tomorrow night into Tuesday, a deamplifying shortwave will move
across the region. While it looks to maybe bring some added cloud
cover, moisture and forcing look too scarce to stir up any precip.
Guidance has pulled back on the signal for a second weak wave that
previously looked capable of producing some light showers Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Now, we`re looking at a dry forecast through
the middle of the week. As far as temperatures go, we`ll be back in
the lower and middle 40s tomorrow. Highs will float around 50 on
Tuesday with middle and upper 50s expected on Wednesday.

Thursday continues to be our best bet at seeing precip in the week
ahead, though it remains a tricky forecast. We`re looking at two
systems passing through the region on Thursday: one that should miss
us just to the south and another that will track across the upper
Great Lakes. The GFS links the two via the northern-most storm`s
cold front. This solution favors showers developing along and ahead
of the reinforcing boundary. The Euro and Canadian on the other hand
develop a col between the storms keeping the two separated and our
area rain-free. It looks as though guidance is trending toward the
latter, drier solution with more and more members hopping on board
with time. Regardless, we should see a brief return to near-normal
temperatures on Friday. However, there is strong signal that we`ll
be back in the 50s by the end of next weekend.

Doom

&&

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024

There are no significant aviation forecast concerns for the
current TAF period.

Westerly winds gusting to around 20 kts will subside later this
afternoon before turning light/calm tonight. Winds should be out
of the south tomorrow and are expected to remain under 10 kts.
Clear skies will continue into tonight before high-level cloud
cover becomes more commonplace after midnight.

Ogorek

&&

MARINE...
Issued at 252 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2024

Westerly winds continue to gradually ease down early this morning.
Occasional gales to 35 kt will remain possible until daybreak with
gusty winds expected through the morning. The gale warning currently
in effect is scheduled to expire at 6 AM with a small craft advisory
to follow through noon.

Doom

&&

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for the IL and IN
nearshore waters.

&&

$$