Aiming Straight Up the Bay

[Steve Blakely]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145015.shtml?tswind120#contents


Steve Blakely
IP 26, Bearboat
Galesville, MD
blak...@gmail.com
Travel clips: https://bearboat.wordpress.com/
Photos: https://sblakelyphotos.wordpress.com/  

[Kevin Rooney]

Yeah, let's keep our fingers crossed that Irene swings to the right and stays offshore.

The latest path prediction at Stormpulse shows it curving just enough to limit the amount of water it shoves straight up the bay, but 5 days out anything can happen.

http://www.stormpulse.com/atlantic

--

Kevin Rooney

C320, S/V Cecilia Ann

Deale, MD

http://kevjot.com/boat/

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[Steve Blakely]

NHC is warning of 9-12 ft. surge tides in the Bahamas from Irene. Surge tides were the main source of damage in the bay during Hurricane Isabel in 2003 (in that case, the eye passed to the west of the bay). Sure don't need a direct hit to get a mess of trouble around here.

-- sb

[Lee]

   It sucks that they removed the 5 models of future forecast.  Not looking forward to this weekend. -L

 

  ^~ ~̃ ^~  _/)  _~~̃  ☼  -Lee

 

 

 

--

[Lee]

Hey Steve, I guess it will be a bare boat this weekend -J Sorry I couldn’t resist.

 

  ^~ ~̃ ^~  _/)  _~~̃  ☼  -Lee

 

 

 

From: chesapeake-...@googlegroups.com [mailto:chesapeake-...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Steve Blakely
Sent: Tuesday, August 23, 2011 1:41 PM
To: chesapeake-...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: [Chesapeake Bay Sailors] Aiming Straight Up the Bay

 

NHC is warning of 9-12 ft. surge tides in the Bahamas from Irene. Surge tides were the main source of damage in the bay during Hurricane Isabel in 2003 (in that case, the eye passed to the west of the bay). Sure don't need a direct hit to get a mess of trouble around here.

-- sb

--

[Steve Blakely]

I'll take some stuff off, but not the sails -- I just wrap 'em up tight with extra line -- "Bear" boat is tough! But I hope I don't have to find out just how tough...

 

Bigger concern for me, especially after Isabel, is the storm surge, 'cause if it takes the boat over the top of the pilings, the thing's almost certainly a gonner. From past practice, I move the boat to the far end of the slip and rig it with as much wiggle room and extra lines as I can, with 6' 2x4s on the sides to slide along the pilings. But that only works while the pilings are <<above>> water.

 

--sb

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[Steve]

Do you mean the "Spaghetti Model"?  They have it on the Boat/US hurricane tracking site:

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/spaghettiModel.asp?storm=Irene

[Lee]

Thanks, Yes that is exactly what I have been trying to find.

-Lee

 

  ^~ ~̃ ^~  _/)  _~~̃  ☼  -Lee

 

 

 

From: chesapeake-...@googlegroups.com [mailto:chesapeake-...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Steve
Sent: Tuesday, August 23, 2011 11:36 PM
To: chesapeake-...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: [Chesapeake Bay Sailors] Aiming Straight Up the Bay

 

Do you mean the "Spaghetti Model"?  They have it on the Boat/US hurricane tracking site:

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/spaghettiModel.asp?storm=Irene


 

   It sucks that they removed the 5 models of future forecast.  Not looking forward to this weekend. -L

 

  ^~ ~̃ ^~  _/)  _~~̃  ☼  -Lee

 

 

 

From: chesapeake-...@googlegroups.com [mailto:chesapeake-...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Steve Blakely
Sent: Tuesday, August 23, 2011 1:41 PM
To: chesapeake-...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: [Chesapeake Bay Sailors] Aiming Straight Up the Bay

 

NHC is warning of 9-12 ft. surge tides in the Bahamas from Irene. Surge tides were the main source of damage in the bay during Hurricane Isabel in 2003 (in that case, the eye passed to the west of the bay). Sure don't need a direct hit to get a mess of trouble around here.

 

--

[Steve]

The latest NOAA forecasts for the projected track of Hurricane Irene are all moving west. Threat level listed as "High".

Their best guess as of noon todays is for the eye to track up along the eastern shore. Estimate for eye arrival on latitude with Pt Lookout is 8AM Sunday morning.

So far those of us on the bay are looking at left side winds.
But if the westward drift of the track continues, that will change.

Looks like time for serious storm prep, folks.

[Max Munger]

I am not sure about left side winds, but they will surely be east and northeast for some time.

 

 

Max Munger 410-353-1150c

--

[Auspicious]

On Aug 25, 1:53 pm, Steve <C...@Trekka.tv> wrote:
> The latest NOAA forecasts for the projected track of Hurricane Irene are
> all moving west. Threat level listed as "High".

GFS and NOGAPS have been trending West for days. The forecast
description from NHC started suggesting that the models didn't account
for absorption of the Low that originally formed over Texas. I think
the best we can hope for some diminution.

This storm has been right out of the ant and grasshopper fable. Up and
down Back Creek the ants have been working all week to get ready. Now
the grasshopper's are showing up and finding no room in the yacht
yards for haul outs, limited choices for supplemental gear in the
stores, and ants too tired from working together getting themselves
ready to provide neighborly assistance. The grasshoppers are on their
own.

sail fast and eat well, dave
S/V Auspicious
exhausted but ready

[Kevin Rooney]

While Irene's projected track had certainly moved west over the last couple days, she definitely moved east overnight. The eye is currently projected to stay off the Delmarva coastline. That was not the case yesterday. For those of us in the mid- or upper bay that is very significant.

I'm staying in the slip in Rockhold Creek in Deale. I've got 12 lines on the boat and all canvas and sails are off. This grasshopper is reasonably confident he'll be fine.

Your message has a hint of schadenfreude to it. Ain't pretty.

--

Kevin

C320, S/V Cecilia Ann

Deale, MD

http://kevjot.com/boat/

[Auspicious]

I do love a good vocabulary. Props for that.

I take no pleasure in the misfortune of others. We are all in this
together. That doesn't mean someone strolling down the dock today for
the first time can call on those of us working all week for help. I'm
whipped. My boat is ready and anchored out. I helped people on eight
other boats strip canvas and sails, move boats, shuttle people around
for haul-outs, and provided numerous other support. Sorry - the folks
who show up today for the first time just aren't going to get the full
neighborly support that the people who showed up Wed and Thu got.

Schadenfreude is not appropriate.

Consider that, grasshoppper.