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Theseraw data sets contain Point-in-Time (PIT) estimates of homelessness by Continuum of Care (CoC) geographic service area and by state as well as estimates of chronic homelessness since 2007. Estimates of homeless veterans are included beginning in 2011. The accompanying Housing Inventory Count (HIC) data by CoC and state are available as well, along with the project-level HIC file for the current year.

As countries implement necessary quarantines and social distancing practices to contain the pandemic, the world has been put in a Great Lockdown. The magnitude and speed of collapse in activity that has followed is unlike anything experienced in our lifetimes.

Under the assumption that the pandemic and required containment peaks in the second quarter for most countries in the world, and recedes in the second half of this year, in the April World Economic Outlook we project global growth in 2020 to fall to -3 percent. This is a downgrade of 6.3 percentage points from January 2020, a major revision over a very short period. This makes the Great Lockdown the worst recession since the Great Depression, and far worse than the Global Financial Crisis.

Assuming the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and that policy actions taken around the world are effective in preventing widespread firm bankruptcies, extended job losses, and system-wide financial strains, we project global growth in 2021 to rebound to 5.8 percent.

This recovery in 2021 is only partial as the level of economic activity is projected to remain below the level we had projected for 2021, before the virus hit. The cumulative loss to global GDP over 2020 and 2021 from the pandemic crisis could be around 9 trillion dollars, greater than the economies of Japan and Germany, combined.

This is a truly global crisis as no country is spared. Countries reliant on tourism, travel, hospitality, and entertainment for their growth are experiencing particularly large disruptions. Emerging market and developing economies face additional challenges with unprecedented reversals in capital flows as global risk appetite wanes, and currency pressures, while coping with weaker health systems, and more limited fiscal space to provide support. Moreover, several economies entered this crisis in a vulnerable state with sluggish growth and high debt levels.

For the first time since the Great Depression both advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies are in recession. For this year, growth in advanced economies is projected at -6.1 percent. Emerging market and developing economies with normal growth levels well above advanced economies are also projected to have negative growth rates of -1.0 percent in 2020, and -2.2 percent if you exclude China. Income per capita is projected to shrink for over 170 countries. Both advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies are expected to partially recover in 2021.

What I have described is a baseline scenario but, given the extreme uncertainty around the duration and intensity of the health crisis, we also explore alternative, more adverse scenarios. The pandemic may not recede in the second half of this year, leading to longer durations of containment, worsening financial conditions, and further breakdowns of global supply chains. In such cases, global GDP would fall even further: an additional 3 percent in 2020 if the pandemic is more protracted this year, while, if the pandemic continues into 2021, it may fall next year by an additional 8 percent compared to our baseline scenario.

Flattening the spread of COVID-19 using lockdowns allows health systems to cope with the disease, which then permits a resumption of economic activity. In this sense, there is no trade-off between saving lives and saving livelihoods. Countries should continue to spend generously on their health systems, perform widespread testing, and refrain from trade restrictions on medical supplies. A global effort must ensure that when therapies and vaccines are developed both rich and poor nations alike have immediate access.

Policymakers must also plan for the recovery. As containment measures come off, policies should shift swiftly to supporting demand, incentivizing firm hiring, and repairing balance sheets in the private and public sector to aid the recovery. Fiscal stimulus that is coordinated across countries with fiscal space will magnify the benefit for all economies. Moratoria on debt repayments and debt restructuring may need to be continued during the recovery phase.

Multilateral cooperation is vital to the health of the global recovery. To support needed spending in developing countries, bilateral creditors and international financial institutions should provide concessional financing, grants, and debt relief. The activation and establishment of swap lines between major central banks has helped ease shortages in international liquidity, and may need to be expanded to more economies. Collaborative effort is needed to ensure that the world does not de-globalize, so the recovery is not damaged by further losses to productivity.

At the International Monetary Fund, we are actively deploying our 1-trillion-dollar lending capacity to support vulnerable countries, including through rapid-disbursing emergency financing and debt service relief to our poorest member countries, and we are calling on official bilateral creditors to do the same.

There are some hopeful signs that this health crisis will end. Countries are succeeding in containing the virus using social-distancing practices, testing, and contact tracing, at least for now, and treatments and vaccines may develop sooner than expected.

In the meantime, we face tremendous uncertainty around what comes next. Commensurate with the scale and speed of the crisis, domestic and international policy responses need to be large, rapidly deployed, and speedily recalibrated as new data becomes available. The courageous actions of doctors and nurses need to be matched by policymakers all over the world so we can jointly overcome this crisis.

IMFBlog is a forum for the views of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff and officials on pressing economic and policy issues of the day.The IMF, based in Washington D.C., is an organization of 190 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation and financial stability around the world.The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF and its Executive Board. Read More

Trends in annual surface temperature in the past few decades (1994-2023, bottom) compared to the trend since the start of the 20th century (1901-2023, top). Recent warming is much faster than the longer-term average, with some locations warming by 1 degree Fahrenheit or more per decade. Differences are most dramatic in the Arctic, where the loss of reflective ice and snow amplifies the rate of warming. NOAA Climate.gov, based on data provided by NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.

Across inaccessible areas that have few measurements, scientists use surrounding temperatures and other information to estimate the missing values. Each value is then used to calculate a global temperature average. This process provides a consistent, reliable method for monitoring changes in Earth's surface temperature over time. Read more about how the global surface temperature record is built in our Climate Data Primer.

Map of global average surface temperature in 2023 compared to the 1991-2020 average. Warmer-than-average areas are shades of red, and cooler-than-average areas are shades of blue. The darker the color, the bigger the difference from average. The animated bar graph shows global temperatures each year from 1976 (left) to 2023 (right) compared to the 1901-2000 average. 1976 (blue bar at far left) was the last time a year was cooler than the 20th-century average. 2023 (far right) set a new record for warmest year. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on data provided by NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.

Though warming has not been uniform across the planet, the upward trend in the globally averaged temperature shows that more areas are warming than cooling. According to NOAA's 2023 Annual Climate Report the combined land and ocean temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.11 Fahrenheit (0.06 Celsius) per decade since 1850, or about 2 F in total. The rate of warming since 1982 is more than three times as fast: 0.36 F (0.20 C) per decade.

(left) Hypothetical pathways of carbon emissions ("representative concentration pathways," or RCPs) throughout the twenty-first century based on different possible energy policies and economic growth patterns. (right) Projected temperature increase relative to the 1901-1960 average depending on which RCP we eventually follow. Image by Katharine Hayhoe, from the 2017 Climate Science Special Report by the U.S. Global Change Research Program.

According to the 2017 U.S. Climate Science Special Report, if yearly emissions continue to increase rapidly, as they have since 2000, models project that by the end of this century, global temperature will be at least 5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the 1901-1960 average, and possibly as much as 10.2 degrees warmer. If annual emissions increase more slowly and begin to decline significantly by 2050, models project temperatures would still be at least 2.4 degrees warmer than the first half of the 20th century, and possibly up to 5.9 degrees warmer.

Dubbed Exercise Steadfast Defender 24, it will feature about 90,000 service members from the 31 NATO allies and Sweden. It will test the ability of the alliance to quickly deploy forces and will test NATO's new defense plans, officials said.

"The alliance will demonstrate its ability to reinforce the Euro-Atlantic area via trans-Atlantic movement of forces from North America," said Army Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, in a press release. "Steadfast Defender 2024 will be a clear demonstration of our unity, strength and determination to protect each other, our values and the rules-based international order."

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